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Old 07-23-2013, 08:30 PM   #1
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With 2 days left to an unexpectedly early ER, I've started looking at the withdrawal phase. If I punch my figures (60k spending, 35 years, 1M starting, SS 15k for 1 at 66, 38k for the other at 70) into Firecalc (also Quicken and Fido's planner) I get 100% success with the minimum or $87K, max of $4M, and an average of $1.4m left on D Day, in today's dollars.

Would it not be prudent to use something other then 100% success and adjust it yearly? Or does one recalculate the 100% success # each year.

What are your thoughts on this?
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Old 07-24-2013, 12:10 AM   #2
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I like to use 100%. Why rely on a plan that has been known to fail over a relatively small data set?

I think it makes sense to check yearly, or at any major change. Adjust the # of years downward if the original 35 year end date still makes sense. If your position has worsened, and it now fails historically, it's time to think about cutting spending.

Those are my thoughts on this.

-ERD50
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Old 07-24-2013, 06:13 AM   #3
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Originally Posted by padlin00 View Post
....Would it not be prudent to use something other then 100% success ....
I guess it depends on whether or not you like the taste of cat food.

If you can live on $60k a year and have some room to adjust your spending as financial conditions change I think you're all set. IOW, if things got bad and you could tighten your belt and still live on $50k then you might be ok with a less than 100% success rate. YMMV.

Also see the thread USA Today article on SWR and the paper referred to in the thread.
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Old 07-24-2013, 11:17 AM   #4
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I guess it depends on whether or not you like the taste of cat food.

If you can live on $60k a year and have some room to adjust your spending as financial conditions change I think you're all set. IOW, if things got bad and you could tighten your belt and still live on $50k then you might be ok with a less than 100% success rate. YMMV.

Also see the thread USA Today article on SWR and the paper referred to in the thread.
Thanks, that thread pretty much answers my question.
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Old 07-24-2013, 03:56 PM   #5
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Would it not be prudent to use something other then 100% success and adjust it yearly? Or does one recalculate the 100% success # each year.

What are your thoughts on this?
95% or 100% -- take your pick. I don't think it makes a ton of difference.

We were already FI, then got RE'd.

I usually solve for spending level then determine if I can live on that. After all, I feel like I have a lot more control over my spending than I will ever have over market returns.
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