Firecalc retro experience

[audreyh1]

For us, we pretty much were only comfortable retiring very early because so much of our desired spending was discretionary. So we knew we had the option of cutting spending drastically if ever needed.

Turns out we retired in 1999 just in time for two horrendous bear markets! But somehow we muddled through. Probably partly because we always had a serious multi-year cash buffer which allowed us to distance ourselves emotionally from the turmoil. Today our investments are in terrific shape (knock on wood).

 

[DrRoy]

Firecalc isn't a guarantee. It is based on historical data. Even if someone financially fails in the future, it doesn't mean that Firecalc was wrong, it could mean that the future didn't follow historical data.

This is a point that I make often. I do not expect future investment returns to match the basis for Firecalc. Interest rates are very low, and the population and productivity growth drivers that generate strong equity returns are fundamentally different. My response was to RE at 57 on a 1.5% WR on top of my small pension. That gives room for things to go wrong.

 

[USGrant1962]

This is a point that I make often. I do not expect future investment returns to match the basis for Firecalc. Interest rates are very low, and the population and productivity growth drivers that generate strong equity returns are fundamentally different. My response was to RE at 57 on a 1.5% WR on top of my small pension. That gives room for things to go wrong.

Interest rates were lower from 1935 to 1956 and FIRECalc worked (actually the 4% SWR as defined worked). 10 Year Treasury Rate

 

[foxfirev5]

Interest rates were lower from 1935 to 1956 and FIRECalc worked (actually the 4% SWR as defined worked). 10 Year Treasury Rate

Yeah but the growth factor was considerably higher after WWII. It's the combination that's putting us between a rock and hard place now.