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Re: FIREcalc rewrite - suggestions?
Old 08-14-2004, 08:04 AM   #61
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Re: FIREcalc rewrite - suggestions?

Quote:

What would you like to see added or changed?

Dory36
Dory,
This thread may be long since dead, but I did not see this anywhere on the existing posts, If it isn't too obvious, I would really like to see FireCalc add more data series -- perhaps from DFA -- on more exotic asset classes that I incorporate into my portfolio. Specifically:

Large US Value
Small US Value
International Value
International Small
Emerging Markets
GNMA
High Yield
Foreign Bonds- Intermediate Term
REITs
Commodities
Oil and Gas
Market Neutral Hedge Index
Venture Capital/Private Equity.

The last two are probably unrealistic, but the others would be great and should not be too hard to find, though naturally the series are shorter.

These asset classes, in a Modern Portfolio analysis, dramatically lower volatility and preserve or even enhance yield over the S&P, which is highly prized, and could allow FireCalc to delive better news to prospective ERs.

Dreaming further, I would love to have an option in FireCalc that says: 1) show me that I can go the number of years withoug going broke and 2) show me that I can go the number of years while preserving the real value of the portfolio. (or 90% of the real value or somesuch). Since none of us knows the hour of our death, really long run planning would seem to me (to be safe) to require the latter approach.

Thanks for all you've done for us,

ESRBob
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Re: FIREcalc rewrite - suggestions?
Old 08-14-2004, 06:26 PM   #62
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Re: FIREcalc rewrite - suggestions?

Hmmm -- any idea where we can get reliable data on any of those classes? Prof Schiller kindly supplied the total market and commercial paper from around the Civil War era, but I haven't seen sources of any other data.
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Re: FIREcalc rewrite - suggestions?
Old 08-15-2004, 01:45 PM   #63
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Re: FIREcalc rewrite - suggestions?

DFA has pretty almost all of this in their annual data book, though the international asset classes go back only 20 years or so, which might mean they could never work in Firecalc. The value stocks series, small and large, go back to 1926, annual data. REITS data goes back a long way, too. I have copied it into a spreadsheet by hand, in the form of annual total returns, if that helps. When the time comes, let me know.

Dory, its great the way it is, but if you're offering to play Santa Claus, those are some of the ways I'd love to see it grow...

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Re: FIREcalc rewrite - suggestions?
Old 01-25-2005, 04:51 AM   #64
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Re: FIREcalc rewrite - suggestions?

Dory,

Along the lines of ESRBob's idea how about a "Coffee House portfolio" option? Even with partial data this might be useful. The model could assume rebalancing as per Coffee House guidelines.

http://www.coffeehouseinvestor.com/

is the page for this investment style.

Thanks for all the effort you have put into FIREcalc.
I used
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Re: FIREcalc rewrite - suggestions?
Old 01-25-2005, 05:49 AM   #65
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Re: FIREcalc rewrite - suggestions?

dory,

How about combining Life Expectancy into the SWR calculation? This spreadsheet should be fairly easy to incorporate into FireCalc.

http://www.retireearlyhomepage.com/SWRLE2004.xls

intercst
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Re: FIREcalc rewrite - suggestions?
Old 01-25-2005, 11:39 AM   #66
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Re: FIREcalc rewrite - suggestions?

Quote:
REITS data goes back a long way, too. *I have copied it into a spreadsheet by hand, in the form of annual total returns, if that helps. *When the time comes, let me know.
Doesn't REIT data only go back to approximately 1970? And there were some large changes in the rules in the 1980's that makes the old investments not really comparable with the current ones? That's only 4 or 5 overlapping 30 year periods.
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Re: FIREcalc rewrite - suggestions?
Old 01-30-2005, 04:06 AM   #67
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Re: FIREcalc rewrite - suggestions?

Quote:
dory,

How about combining Life Expectancy into the SWR calculation? This spreadsheet should be fairly easy to incorporate into FireCalc.

http://www.retireearlyhomepage.com/SWRLE2004.xls

intercst
I'll take a look at the life expectancy and how I can incorporate it -- thanks for the suggestion.
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Re: FIREcalc rewrite - suggestions?
Old 01-31-2005, 07:17 AM   #68
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Re: FIREcalc rewrite - suggestions?

...as long as you're mulling over adding a Life Expentancy feature, please consider an option for Joint Life Expectancy for those of us who are married:

http://www.retireearlyhomepage.com/joint2003.xls

Cb
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Re: FIREcalc rewrite - suggestions?
Old 01-31-2005, 05:05 PM   #69
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Re: FIREcalc rewrite - suggestions?

Quote:
...as long as you're mulling over adding a Life Expentancy feature, please consider an option for Joint Life Expectancy for those of us who are married:

http://www.retireearlyhomepage.com/joint2003.xls

Cb
If dory is unable to program the joint table and combine it with SWR, you can approximate it using the single life table.

For example, say both you and your spouse are 50 years old, individually you each have a 33.7 year life span. The joint/last survivor figure is 39.9 -- a six year difference.

If you just subtract 6 years from your age (50-6=44) and use the single life table for a 44-year-old, the result is pretty close to being correct. (i.e. age 44 = 39.3 lifespan)

intercst


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Re: FIREcalc rewrite - suggestions?
Old 02-11-2005, 09:43 PM   #70
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Re: FIREcalc rewrite - suggestions?

Say Dory, it might be worthwhile to add a few paragraphs to the FIREcalc page outlining Salaryguru's approach to evaluating Fixed Expense Budget + Discretionary (variable) Budget SWR's using FIREcalc's Expense Ratio feature as outlined in this thread:

http://early-retirement.org/cgi-bin/...num=1107758513
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Re: FIREcalc rewrite - suggestions?
Old 02-12-2005, 04:31 AM   #71
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Re: FIREcalc rewrite - suggestions?

I agree with the suggestion re the SalaryGuru analysis.

I think it would also be a good idea to add a discussion of the SWR findings put forward by William Bernstein in his book "The Four Pillars of Investing" and by JWR1945 at the SWR Research Group board. We have learned a lot about what the data says in recent years and it is no longer appropriate to lead people to think that there is only one way to look at the numbers. I think that it might do a lot to alleviate some of the friction that we have seen in SWR discussions if we made it clear up front that the REHP study approach is only one possible approach and that a good number of reputable stock analysts have a very different take on the question of what withdrawal rate is safe.
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Re: FIREcalc rewrite - suggestions?
Old 02-12-2005, 05:56 PM   #72
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Re: FIREcalc rewrite - suggestions?

Quote:
what the data says
That would be "what the data say"

arrete
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Re: FIREcalc rewrite - suggestions?
Old 02-13-2005, 04:23 AM   #73
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Re: FIREcalc rewrite - suggestions?

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That would be "what the data say"

arrete

picky, picky, picky, arrette but in the same spirit...since the host has bought a house and scutteled the ship shouldn't he be required to change his moniker from dory36 to oh I dunno ...Ranch50, Colonial66, CapeCod42, or maybe SaltBox35?


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Re: FIREcalc rewrite - suggestions?
Old 02-13-2005, 06:40 AM   #74
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Re: FIREcalc rewrite - suggestions?

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since the host has bought a house and scutteled the ship shouldn't he be required to change his moniker from dory36
I like it the way it is, partially because so many people think he's female.

Besides, I get very confused when people change their names.

arrete - you're stuck with mine
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Re: FIREcalc rewrite - suggestions?
Old 02-13-2005, 09:20 AM   #75
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Re: FIREcalc rewrite - suggestions?

I could have SWORN I just saw a honking goose riding a folding biyak with a color laser printer strapped to it...must have been a hallucination.

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