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Old 02-10-2014, 06:13 PM   #41
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I don't think it's the money any of us are bothered about - it has more to do with who is going to shovel us into a home when we're not able to do it for ourselves. Better start training that little doggie!
Yes. All that money just sitting there is useless if it can't be actuated by a sentient being with functioning faculties & at least some mobility. Money doesn't spend. People spend.
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Old 02-11-2014, 09:23 AM   #42
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FIRCALC is a good tool but it is at best a foggy crystal ball. Not all the unforeseen variables are bad or problematic.

Neither FIRECALC or I could see the ACA coming when I moved from full time employment to semi-fired in 2008. The ACA has reduced my net annual living expenses by more than 11%.

My reserve if you will that I do not factor into any FIRECALC scenario is the value of my home and the potential cash flow a reverse mortgage could provide.
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Old 02-11-2014, 09:45 AM   #43
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How can FIRECalc predict future returns from past performance?

It can't. And it doesn't try.
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Old 02-11-2014, 01:10 PM   #44
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Originally Posted by Major Tom View Post
...

I don't think it's the money any of us are bothered about - it has more to do with who is going to shovel us into a home when we're not able to do it for ourselves. Better start training that little doggie!
We are getting a little taste of this up close and personal. My MIL & FIL are facing aging issues (mainly physical/eyesight, but also some mental abilities fading), and even though they are in a retirement community, they have become very dependent on their nearby children's families. It isn't any big effort on our part (and we would be glad to do much more if needed), but it has been an eye-opener. Just little things like doing the shopping for them, helping them find things (they loose them and either can't remember or can't see or can't reach behind or under a chair to find where it fell), they need help filling out forms, getting to doctors, etc. It all adds up.

All in all, it isn't much effort to help them out, but what would they do w/o these little assists? Who do you trust to fill out a financial form, deposit a check at the bank, make sure the bills are paid, etc? It's a little scary to think what could happen if they didn't have trusted family around.

-ERD50
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Old 02-11-2014, 01:23 PM   #45
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Like others, I run all kinds of scenarios through Firecalc and a few other tools. It's all one on-going process to live the best life possible adjusting to whatever comes our way. Speaking of which, there is no chance I'm sacrificing a single dollar of living to simply exist. To each their own but long term care to have someone feed me, change my diaper and tell me my name was an easy budget cut. After seeing several nursing homes, one day hopefully society will be as humane to people as we are to dogs.
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Old 02-11-2014, 02:14 PM   #46
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At the end of the day, I will go into RE with my eyes wide open whether I have 80% or 100% firecalc number.
+1
Loved it.

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I use FireCalc as one source of information. I also ran some Monte-Carlo simulations using other retirement planners, and did my own SS calculations. I trust the results in the context of "Trust but verify" every year or two. If some exogenous factor upsets the plans, then I will pivot and and run a new route. At some point, when I feel I don't have what it takes to 'verify' I might just put it all in PSSSSTTT.....Wellesly and collect the income.
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We are getting a little taste of this up close and personal. My MIL & FIL are facing aging issues (mainly physical/eyesight, but also some mental abilities fading), and even though they are in a retirement community, they have become very dependent on their nearby children's families. It isn't any big effort on our part (and we would be glad to do much more if needed), but it has been an eye-opener. Just little things like doing the shopping for them, helping them find things (they loose them and either can't remember or can't see or can't reach behind or under a chair to find where it fell), they need help filling out forms, getting to doctors, etc. It all adds up.

All in all, it isn't much effort to help them out, but what would they do w/o these little assists? Who do you trust to fill out a financial form, deposit a check at the bank, make sure the bills are paid, etc? It's a little scary to think what could happen if they didn't have trusted family around.

-ERD50
Nah, since childhood, I've been an extremely independent person, always figuring no one was going to take care of me but me. This is to a fault because I won't even take up friends' offers to take me to the hospital when necessary. I just take myself there, then take myself home.

Quite frankly, when I get to the point where I can't pay bills, deposit a check, or fill out a form, I won't want to be around. I will already have arranged my final exit while I was still functioning. Til then, I just party on
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Old 02-11-2014, 02:25 PM   #47
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Quite frankly, when I get to the point where I can't pay bills, deposit a check, or fill out a form, I won't want to be around. I will already have arranged my final exit while I was still functioning.
Once again, an excellent plan that can be difficult if not impossible to execute. I've seen more than a few with "Smith & Wesson" insurance plans fail due to a sudden stroke or other severe mentally debilitating condition. By the time they realized they should file a claim (if they ever did) it was too late to collect on the policy.
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Old 02-11-2014, 03:04 PM   #48
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Once again, an excellent plan that can be difficult if not impossible to execute. I've seen more than a few with "Smith & Wesson" insurance plans fail due to a sudden stroke or other severe mentally debilitating condition. By the time they realized they should file a claim (if they ever did) it was too late to collect on the policy.
Without going into detail, I've had experience with this in the past. On death's doorstep at the time, it came "this" close to happening. Then it didn't. I'm unconcerned with these sorts of things now as I've learned the very hard way that 1001 other things can/will happen first. Asteroid strikes come in a variety of packages, and it's not what happens, it's what you do with it. 20 years later, I'm kind of shocked at how brilliantly (IMHO) I handled the entire situation. As to being mentally disabled, some people would say I"m already there...
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Old 02-11-2014, 04:00 PM   #49
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Nah, since childhood, I've been an extremely independent person, always figuring no one was going to take care of me but me. This is to a fault because I won't even take up friends' offers to take me to the hospital when necessary. I just take myself there, then take myself home.
Me, too. Is this a Los Angeles thing ? Although, when I broke my shoulder and dislocated another (two separate incidents), I had to ask someone to drive. I had a stick shift car at the time and I could not physically drive it.
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Old 02-11-2014, 05:52 PM   #50
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Without going into detail, I've had experience with this in the past. On death's doorstep at the time, it came "this" close to happening. Then it didn't. I'm unconcerned with these sorts of things now as I've learned the very hard way that 1001 other things can/will happen first. Asteroid strikes come in a variety of packages, and it's not what happens, it's what you do with it. 20 years later, I'm kind of shocked at how brilliantly (IMHO) I handled the entire situation.
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Nah, since childhood, I've been an extremely independent person, always figuring no one was going to take care of me but me. This is to a fault because I won't even take up friends' offers to take me to the hospital when necessary. I just take myself there, then take myself home.
And I thought I was the only true stoic. I have also nearly crossed over a few times but gutted it out. A week after my 39th birthday I had an anaphylactic reaction to a fairly common prescription drug. It was like 4 o'Clock on a Sunday morning and I didn't want to call 911 and wake everybody up and maybe take the ambulance away from some old guy who might be having a heart attack at the same time. And just wasn't convinced I really had only 10 or 15 minutes left to live. So I concluded that since I was able to stand up and actually consider these options I was able to drive myself to the E.R. covered with welts and trying to drive faster than my tongue could swell

When I think about it I go back and forth on whether I was strong and brave or muthuh-effin' stupid. But I suppose I could have been both
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Old 02-11-2014, 09:16 PM   #51
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... Nah, since childhood, I've been an extremely independent person, always figuring no one was going to take care of me but me. ...
I think most of us plan and want to be independent (there are exceptions of course), but things don't always go according to plan. And like others have said, we may have an 'exit plan', but that doesn't mean we will be in a position to act on it.

IMO, my MIL & FIL worked too hard to be independent. There are things we can help them with that are really no trouble for us, but nearly impossible for them. So now we try to go out of our way to ask - 'anything else you need done around here?' when we visit.

-ERD50
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Old 02-11-2014, 10:10 PM   #52
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I think most of us plan and want to be independent (there are exceptions of course), but things don't always go according to plan. And like others have said, we may have an 'exit plan', but that doesn't mean we will be in a position to act on it.

IMO, my MIL & FIL worked too hard to be independent. There are things we can help them with that are really no trouble for us, but nearly impossible for them. So now we try to go out of our way to ask - 'anything else you need done around here?' when we visit.

-ERD50
I think it's awesome that you're there for your IL's. I intend to do the sme thing for my own mother when the time comes.

Back then, my exit plan included ending life before it ended me, and that plan came "this" close to happening before the gods intervened healthwise.

My estate plan (created then and still in effect today) gave detailed directives that I was not to be kept on life saving drugs/devices of any kind. I made it clear to everyone and their mother (including all healthcare providers) that when I decided to end things no one and nothing was to get in my way. On one hand, it's amazing the amount of detail that I put into it at the time; on the other, it's the way I do everything so it shouldn't be surprising at all.

Point is, we do have control over these things if we think far enough in advance and plan thoughtfully for them. For some, wanting to have caretakers is great. For me, I do not want to be in any nursing home or LTC situation as I do not trust the care and won't consider it a quality of life anyway. A friend's uncle paid $3K a month at one of the most expensive upscale nursing homes in Vancouver. Family ended up moving him because they didn't like the care.

As to that illness, I came back from all that with a vengeance, by the way, in every single way, so you see we can rise from the ashes.
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Old 02-11-2014, 10:18 PM   #53
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I made it clear to everyone and their mother (including all healthcare providers) that when I decided to end things no one and nothing was to get in my way....

Point is, we do have control over these things if think far enough in advance and plan for them....
It's nice to think that we do. Truth is, the only thing we really have control of is making our wishes known.
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Old 02-12-2014, 04:55 AM   #54
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FIREcalc results show 100% success rate in my case, but I still work.

OMY syndrome, definitely.

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When firecalc results are calculated using the 100% success rate and the results are successful, how confident are members in believing that they have achieved ER success? Everything has a certain tolerance level to account for. Do members throw in an additional "pad" to feel confident or do they consider the 100% success factor good enough (without adding a extra pad factor?
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Old 02-12-2014, 03:16 PM   #55
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I have a lot of confidence in firecalc. It's a great guide.
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AA = 60/35/5. Expected CAGR = 5.7%. GSD (5y) = 7.8%. USD inflation (10 y) = 1.8%. AWR = 3.0%. TER = 0.5%. Net Port Yield = 1.7%. Term = 36 yr. FI Duration = 4.9 yr. Portfolio survival probability = 86%.
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Old 02-16-2014, 08:31 PM   #56
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Fire-Calc is backward looking, but enormously helpful.
By dropping spending about 2%, it modelled from 96% to 100%, but this is all based on assumptions and backwards data.
It's a hell of a lot better than skiing blindfolded, although last spring, I did ski down behind a guy sking behind a barking dog. It took me a while to realize he was blind. That was a bit of an eye-opener and a life-lesson as well.
Barring a portfolio collapse, I'm looking at retirement in 2006, based in part on FireCalc. I model SS as worth 60-65% of current assumptions, but we have alot of travel and other luxuries built into the default budget.
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Old 02-16-2014, 08:40 PM   #57
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Fire-Calc is backward looking, but enormously helpful.
...

Barring a portfolio collapse, I'm looking at retirement in 2006, based in part on FireCalc.
Man, when you say backward looking, you aren't kidding.
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Old 04-24-2014, 01:29 PM   #58
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I don't think one would need money in heaven by definition. It is probably needed it in hell.
In this life as well as in the after-life, it is prudent to diversify. Never put all in one basket!

As you are new here, I will refer you to a story that I read a while back.

See: A Miser Story.
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Old 04-24-2014, 05:32 PM   #59
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I use Firecalc 100% score with a grain of salt. I hedge my bets by treating pension and SS as optional "reinforcements", plugging in a higher inflation rate, and testing my assumptions across as many other retirement calculators as I can, looking for 100% on all if them if possible.
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Old 04-24-2014, 06:27 PM   #60
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Planning for retirement is a recent development for me and DW. It is driven by an increasing need to truly enjoy the years we have to the max. Our fears of wasting any our last 20+ healthy summers scare us more than a reasonable level of financial uncertainty. Firecalc and any other measure I can think of are usefull metrics for us, nothing more. No guarantees are expected regardless of how thick we pad above all the formlas we can find. Just want to slow down and enjoy the time left.
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