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Firecalc success rate.
Old 12-06-2005, 10:49 AM   #1
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Firecalc success rate.

I ran the firecalc and came up with a 71.2% success rate, what should I be looking for...a 100% or less ?

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Re: Firecalc success rate.
Old 12-06-2005, 10:57 AM   #2
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Re: Firecalc success rate.

Quote:
Originally Posted by PJ03
I ran the firecalc and came up with a 71.2% success rate, what should I be looking for...a 100% or less ?
There is no right or wrong percentage, it's whatever you feel comfortable with. For me, it's the mid-90's or above.


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Re: Firecalc success rate.
Old 12-06-2005, 12:36 PM   #3
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Re: Firecalc success rate.

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Originally Posted by REWahoo!
There is no right or wrong percentage, it's whatever you feel comfortable with.* For me, it's the mid-90's or above.


Its interesting how it works, I was able to up the success rate to just above 95% just be reducing the expected yearly income by a little under 20%. Now the only thing that stops me from retiring is fear of the unknown.
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Re: Firecalc success rate.
Old 12-06-2005, 12:52 PM   #4
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Re: Firecalc success rate.

Quote:
Originally Posted by PJ03
Its interesting how it works, I was able to up the success rate to just above 95% just be reducing the expected yearly income by a little under 20%. Now the only thing that stops me from retiring is fear of the unknown.
You don't run any financial calculator with made up numbers just to get to the desired 95% rate.

You run the calculator with YOUR numbers to get to whatever rate those numbers generate.* In your case, it looks like your rate is 71%.

You can look at what AMOUNT you can withdraw to equal a 95% SWR, but in your case that amount will only be enough for semi-retirement now if you can earn enough to cover the difference between that amount and the amount you need.
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Re: Firecalc success rate.
Old 12-06-2005, 01:08 PM   #5
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Re: Firecalc success rate.

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Originally Posted by PJ03
Now the only thing that stops me from retiring is fear of the unknown.
Remember, FireCalc is just a tool based on historical results. It can't predict anything about the future. IMO it's wise to include a margin of safety for the unexpected.
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Re: Firecalc success rate.
Old 12-06-2005, 01:14 PM   #6
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Re: Firecalc success rate.

Where is ***** when you need him?
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Re: Firecalc success rate.
Old 12-06-2005, 01:20 PM   #7
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Re: Firecalc success rate.

There's plenty of flatuance on this board with *****... :
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Re: Firecalc success rate.
Old 12-06-2005, 01:49 PM   #8
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Re: Firecalc success rate.

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Foul!
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Re: Firecalc success rate.
Old 12-06-2005, 04:41 PM   #9
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Re: Firecalc success rate.

Quote:
Originally Posted by retire@40
You don't run any financial calculator with made up numbers just to get to the desired 95% rate.

You run the calculator with YOUR numbers to get to whatever rate those numbers generate.* In your case, it looks like your rate is 71%.

You can look at what AMOUNT you can withdraw to equal a 95% SWR, but in your case that amount will only be enough for semi-retirement now if you can earn enough to cover the difference between that amount and the amount you need.
The numbers were not "made up" I lowered the amount I would like to take out yearly to an amount that I can live on and still put away a little savings. it equals about 3.45% which I'm told is a very safe bet. My rate is 95.5%
WHATS WITH THE CAP WORDS. Are you yelling at me ?
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Re: Firecalc success rate.
Old 12-06-2005, 05:32 PM   #10
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Re: Firecalc success rate.

Ignore those guys talking about *****, a former poster.

I take it that you had about a 70% historical success rate when you were generous with your expense estimates. You increased the historical success rate to over 95% by reducing expenses to an amount you can live on, plus some padding. Nothing wrong with that.
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Re: Firecalc success rate.
Old 12-06-2005, 05:41 PM   #11
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Re: Firecalc success rate.

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Originally Posted by Rok
Foul!


Glad you caught the humor in it. I have no use for him and have seen way too many of his long-winded posts to nowhere for me to even want any comments from him. The M* board and several other Retirement boards are still following his FIRCALC "discussions" with great vigor. Remember....it is all about market valuation.

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Re: Firecalc success rate.
Old 12-06-2005, 05:41 PM   #12
 
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Re: Firecalc success rate.

Quote:
Originally Posted by retire@40
You don't run any financial calculator with made up numbers just to get to the desired 95% rate.

You run the calculator with YOUR numbers to get to whatever rate those numbers generate.* In your case, it looks like your rate is 71%.

You can look at what AMOUNT you can withdraw to equal a 95% SWR, but in your case that amount will only be enough for semi-retirement now if you can earn enough to cover the difference between that amount and the amount you need.
You can use FireCalc to see what you are able to spend in Retirement (and in essence these are made-up numbers)

I might like to spend $300K per year in retirement, but FireCalc tells me to get 100% surviveability, I may need to pare it down to $75K.

As SWR said in another post. The biggest variable in retirement is Living Expenses. I could cut mine in half quite easily. If my portfolio returns are greater than 2% real over the next 20 years. I could spend more. Remember FireCalc gives you the worst case over the last 100+ years.
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Re: Firecalc success rate.
Old 12-06-2005, 06:04 PM   #13
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Re: Firecalc success rate.

I've run FIRECalc about a hundred different ways. I've looked at every possible variation of how soon we each retire, how long we live, how much SS we will get, when we will sell a house, not to mention the obvious how much we have saved, and how much we want to spend.

They are all "made up" numbers that help to figure out what point we feel comfortable saying, "Go for it!"
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Re: Firecalc success rate.
Old 12-06-2005, 07:35 PM   #14
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Re: Firecalc success rate.

Quote:
Originally Posted by SteveR
Where is ***** when you need him?
Bite your tongue and anything else that will hurt.
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Re: Firecalc success rate.
Old 12-06-2005, 10:23 PM   #15
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Re: Firecalc success rate.

Quote:
Originally Posted by SteveR
Where is ***** when you need him?
He's over at M*'s Vanguard Diehards board and, reading what the other posters are saying to him, he desperately needs your help!

M*'s "Ignore Poster" feature is wonderful...
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Re: Firecalc success rate.
Old 12-07-2005, 06:51 AM   #16
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Re: Firecalc success rate.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Martha
Ignore those guys talking about *****, a former poster.*

I take it that you had about a 70% historical success rate when you were generous with your expense estimates. You increased the historical success rate to over 95% by reducing expenses to an amount you can live on, plus some padding.* Nothing wrong with that.
Martha, the expense estimates stayed about the same, I had plugged in a generous yearly payment that would allow me a nice slush fund which I really did not need. My thinking was to withdraw enough to live in plus be able to save 30% of it for other investments. I would need about five more years of working full time to get to that point.
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Re: Firecalc success rate.
Old 12-14-2005, 06:41 PM   #17
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Re: Firecalc success rate.

how do you use the "tips" section...what is it and what should you put in?
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Re: Firecalc success rate.
Old 12-14-2005, 06:49 PM   #18
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Re: Firecalc success rate.

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Originally Posted by wstu32
how do you use the "tips" section...what is it and what should you put in?
TIPS = Treasury Inflation Protected Securities

You can learn more about them here:

http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov/sec/seciis.htm

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Re: Firecalc success rate.
Old 12-14-2005, 06:50 PM   #19
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Re: Firecalc success rate.

thank you
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Old 12-14-2005, 06:55 PM   #20
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Re: Firecalc success rate.

what would be a good number to put in...it has 2.5 now...which means?
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