Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Old 04-15-2019, 01:49 PM   #81
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Tampa
Posts: 3,275
Quote:
Originally Posted by Perryinva View Post
Why does everyone say FIDO is pessimistic? It is only pessimistic if you choose “significantly below average” return as the base. By definition that is pessimistic. Or the high failure scenario. Even “below average” I find pretty positive. “Average” is insanely positive.
Well if you find value in the success ratio percentages, then "Below Average/"Average" are only 70%/50% success rates respectively.

Keeping aside that Monte Carlo simulations are more conservative in nature than Historical simulations, would you be fine with 70% and 50% success rates in Firecalc?
__________________

__________________
TGIM
Dtail is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 04-15-2019, 02:25 PM   #82
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
robnplunder's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Location: Bay Area
Posts: 2,478
Quote:
Originally Posted by youbet View Post

Speaking of anecdotal examples, DW and I are experiencing spending increasing as we go through our 70's. We're healthy enough to still enjoy outdoorsy activities, travel, entertainment and living in comfortable surroundings. But our energy and ambition for do-it-yourself, money saving chores is diminishing fast! I just spent $1,100 for the lawn service to do some things we'd have done ourselves a few years ago.

This thought occurred to me just yesterday as I was trimming a front yard tree that was about to invade our 2nd story window. It took an hour of hard labor (sawing branches off while standing on top end of a tall ladder, using left (off) hand b/c of weird angle to get at the branch) to do the job. I also removed plants/grass growing in my rain gutters, again standing on top end of a tall ladder. And as I were doing these chores, I wondered how long I can do these myself. It would have taken hundreds of dollars for either chore. Ditto for working on my car.
__________________

__________________
Pura Vida
robnplunder is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-15-2019, 07:56 PM   #83
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Katsmeow's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 4,049
I am usually good with 95%. DH says he is OK with 80%. But I can manipulate what I get depending on length of time and what spending I select. I have been doing it for years and always use 30 years. I have toyed with changing it since DH is 71 and I am about to be 65. So I have thought about switching it to 28 but it doesn't make a huge difference so I haven't.

Depending on how I do spending I can sometimes end at 100% or at 95% or even lower. I run it with different spending assumptions to get a range.
Katsmeow is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-16-2019, 10:30 AM   #84
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Posts: 367
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dtail View Post
Well if you find value in the success ratio percentages, then "Below Average/"Average" are only 70%/50% success rates respectively.

Keeping aside that Monte Carlo simulations are more conservative in nature than Historical simulations, would you be fine with 70% and 50% success rates in Firecalc?
I don’t place any value on percentage success really. I only look at absolute numbers. In Firecalc, I look for 4 or less failures. The failures come 25+ years out, so plenty of time to “ react”. I am not really an RE investor like so many here, retiring at 61. I discovered this school of thought too late to make much difference, as I had already committed to a private industry where the pension income was designed to cover the majority of income. In FIDO, I look at remaining portfolio amount for the 3 return scenarios and judge from there. I place more credence in “below” average than “average” or “significantly below average”. With retirement this year at 61, but full pay+ pension through this & most of 2020, my first year of retirement withdrawals doesn’t even come until 2021, when I am 63. My pensions & SS (~ $110k/yr) cover all my expenses plus some discretionary, so income from my $1M+ investment portfolio is for pure discretionary items and black swan/LTC etc events. 63 thru 70 withdrawals will be for back door Roth conversions, but I will still have significant pretax even after conversions (>$500k) causing RMDs. I am mostly interested in the calculators because they predict the amounts based on inflation adjusted income using my COLA and non COLA incomes accordingly. I have plenty of cushion built it that I can adjust my income draw to circumstances as needed. The ballpark of $4-5k/mo of discretionary is plenty, for us. As mentioned by many, unused “allowed income” above RMDs will just stay invested pre or after tax. Until I have a few years under my retirement belt, I know I will refrain from the BTD attitude. We already travel Business or better twice year overseas, so we are not depriving ourselves of anything.
Perryinva is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-16-2019, 10:58 AM   #85
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Posts: 367
Quote:
Originally Posted by tmm99 View Post
And from what I can gather, FIDO drops your asset down a lot in the first year of retirement, and I consider that a good test - because a drop in your asset at the beginning of your retirement is more detrimental than a drop later on in your retirement.
Ahh, that is the first I’ve heard that. Thank you. In that case, I am SO ready to enjoy retirement as even significantly below average returns shows an easy success with tons of cushion. 45 days to go, w/ only 30 actual show up days left. For me FIRECALC & FIDO match quite well. IORP is even more optimistic.
Perryinva is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-16-2019, 11:02 AM   #86
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jun 2017
Location: Western NC
Posts: 1,092
Anything over 80% really doesn't matter, as one of the online financial advisors notes...there are simply too many external factors outside of one's control for there to be any meaningful difference.
ncbill is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-16-2019, 11:06 AM   #87
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
robnplunder's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Location: Bay Area
Posts: 2,478
[QUOTE=Perryinva;2223182The failures come 25+ years out, so plenty of time to “ react”. [/QUOTE]


As I understand FIRECalc, I don't think the result is what you think it means. I think it means, if you increase your sample years beyond 25 years, there is a likelihood of failure within the years you specified.
__________________

__________________
Pura Vida
robnplunder is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Noticed more people holding signs "need work or food" rayinpenn Other topics 3 05-03-2015 02:51 PM
Chart of Withdrawal Rate - Success Rate - Yrs Retired Midpack FIRE and Money 28 10-05-2013 11:02 AM
FireCalc =5% 40 years with 97.4% success rate Hydroman FIRE and Money 16 08-21-2006 01:56 PM
100% SUCCESS RATE ON FIRECALC wstu32 FIRE and Money 7 03-20-2006 01:33 PM
Firecalc success rate. PJ03 FIRE and Money 20 12-15-2005 08:45 PM

» Quick Links

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 05:53 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2019, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.