chinaco
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
- Joined
- Feb 14, 2007
- Messages
- 5,072
It seems that the White House updated its jobs projection.
They are not expecting to get close to full employment till 2017 (projection of 6% unemployment).
That is a long-term outlook and of course things can always change.
White House: Slower jobs recovery ahead - Sep. 1, 2011
2017 would be about 10 years after the meltdown. The average business cycle is about 4.5 years. We had a couple of cycles that lasted just over 9 years (2 times out of 33 cycles). Since WWII business cycle average has been about 5.x years the two 9 year cycles were in that time period (2 times out of 11).
http://www.nber.org/cycles.html
If the white house projection is correct (6% in 2017), we could go through another recession before the unemployment situation get back to full employment. The reason I point this out is the Fed's common response to a contraction is to move rates lower. Of course, I am not sure they could get much lower... but rate could stay low.
The fed made a statement the other day about keeping rates low till 2013.
Given the unemployment projection, do you think the Fed might keep rates low for up to 5 years? I suppose if inflation rises they may raise rates to combat inflation.
What do you think about this situation?
There is has been a lot of discussion about fixed investments lately.... but the economic outlook seems to keep changing.
Thoughts or comments?
They are not expecting to get close to full employment till 2017 (projection of 6% unemployment).
That is a long-term outlook and of course things can always change.
White House: Slower jobs recovery ahead - Sep. 1, 2011
2017 would be about 10 years after the meltdown. The average business cycle is about 4.5 years. We had a couple of cycles that lasted just over 9 years (2 times out of 33 cycles). Since WWII business cycle average has been about 5.x years the two 9 year cycles were in that time period (2 times out of 11).
http://www.nber.org/cycles.html
If the white house projection is correct (6% in 2017), we could go through another recession before the unemployment situation get back to full employment. The reason I point this out is the Fed's common response to a contraction is to move rates lower. Of course, I am not sure they could get much lower... but rate could stay low.
The fed made a statement the other day about keeping rates low till 2013.
Given the unemployment projection, do you think the Fed might keep rates low for up to 5 years? I suppose if inflation rises they may raise rates to combat inflation.
What do you think about this situation?
There is has been a lot of discussion about fixed investments lately.... but the economic outlook seems to keep changing.
Thoughts or comments?
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