florida real estate forecast

[lazygood4nothinbum]

following find study by often newspaper-quoted hank fishkind of fishkind & associates showing florida real estate forecast through 2009. though published in january 2007, prior to the subprime fun, it still might be somewhat relevant as it compares all florida counties with respect to projected population growth, general economy including jobs in each area.

as i retired with downsizing in mind, and as one of my options includes--if florida votes for portablitity of homesteaded "save our homes" values--relocating to a less expensive area, the study brings good news to me as it predicts my area (broward, which is at buildout) going up once the housing cycle again (if ever) reverses while the two areas i'm considering (especially daytona) show declining or flat near futures.

my ideal hope to such scenario would be for the new "save our home" amendment to pass on portability (that would bring my downsized property tax to zero from the current little) and for my area to turn up so i could sell at a fair price and then pick up a 1/2-priced foreclosure in a still-declining or flat area. talk about market timing. hey, it's not as if i didn't get ideally screwed by the bubble.

anyway, here are some quotes for areas of florida i've noticed mentioned on this forum and following that the entire study for your perusal.

dade county (including miami):

Quote:

The market for existing homes will not behave much different from the new homes market...The existing homes market is expected to cool off slightly, and pricing will remain stable through 2009

broward county (including fort lauderdale):

Quote:

the market for existing homes has behaved significantly different from that of the new homes market. In response to higher prices and less availability, existing home sales and prices have increased considerably since 2000. As the new homes market stagnates, both closings and pricings are expected to steadily increase as market begins the upswing of the next housing cycle.

volusia county (including daytona beach):

Quote:

The market for existing homes will not fare as well as the new homes market. With closings way off their 2005 peak of 16,000 units, volume is expected to increase slightly in 2007 and continually decline through 2009. As a result of the softer market as well as higher mortgage rates, pricing is expected to slip during the forecast horizon.

sarasota county:

Quote:

The market for existing homes will experience trends similar to the new home marketplace. Closing volumes peaked in 2005 at nearly 14,000 units. Activity will decline to a low point of 7,000 units by 2007 for a modest increase to 8,500 units by 2009. Prices will be flat through 2009

manatte county (including bradenton):

Quote:

The existing single-family market in Manatee County dropped considerably in 2006. This trend is expected to continue in 2007, but it should stabilize in 2008 and begin to increase by 2009. Existing home prices will remain relatively constant for the next several years

hillsborough county (including tampa):

Quote:

The market for existing homes saw and will continue to see a considerable drop in closings until 2008. After 2008, the market is expected to rebound but not at a rate high enough to reach the level seen before the drop

www.fundhomeinfo.com/pdf/2007_Real_Estate_Forecast.pdf