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Forbes: Recession dead ahead
Old 06-06-2006, 07:05 PM   #1
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Forbes: Recession dead ahead

"WHITEFISH, Mont. - We wish it wasnít so, and we wish we didnít have to say it. But todayís economy is on a collision course with a recession. And the most probable starting point is the fourth quarter of this year or early 2007. Since the stock market typically leads the economy by six to nine months, you can guess what that means for Wall Street this year. "

Rather than ride it down again one might want to go a little short here or move some money off the table.

boont
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Re: Forbes: Recession dead ahead
Old 06-06-2006, 07:22 PM   #2
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Re: Forbes: Recession dead ahead

It's interesting that posters on another thread were talking about the current dip as a buying opportunity.

I think I'll split the difference and stay the course.
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Re: Forbes: Recession dead ahead
Old 06-06-2006, 07:23 PM   #3
 
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Re: Forbes: Recession dead ahead

I'm gonna get ready and do nothing!
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Re: Forbes: Recession dead ahead
Old 06-06-2006, 07:24 PM   #4
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Re: Forbes: Recession dead ahead

Quote:
Originally Posted by boont
"WHITEFISH, Mont. - We wish it wasnít so, and we wish we didnít have to say it. But todayís economy is on a collision course with a recession. And the most probable starting point is the fourth quarter of this year or early 2007. Since the stock market typically leads the economy by six to nine months, you can guess what that means for Wall Street this year. "

Rather than ride it down again one might want to go a little short here or move some money off the table.

boont
Who are you quoting Boont?

Ha
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Re: Forbes: Recession dead ahead
Old 06-06-2006, 07:29 PM   #5
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Re: Forbes: Recession dead ahead

Quote:
Originally Posted by HaHa
Quote:
Originally Posted by boont
"WHITEFISH, Mont. - We wish it wasnít so, and we wish we didnít have to say it. But todayís economy is on a collision course with a recession. And the most probable starting point is the fourth quarter of this year or early 2007. Since the stock market typically leads the economy by six to nine months, you can guess what that means for Wall Street this year. "

Rather than ride it down again one might want to go a little short here or move some money off the table.

boont
Who are you quoting Boont?

Ha
I assume it is Forbes magazine from the thread title.
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Re: Forbes: Recession dead ahead
Old 06-06-2006, 07:30 PM   #6
 
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Re: Forbes: Recession dead ahead

I can't remember who said it.

"The stock market has predicted 14 of the last 6 recessions"

In my mind we have been in a recession since 2000. I never saw a recovery!
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Re: Forbes: Recession dead ahead
Old 06-06-2006, 07:41 PM   #7
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Re: Forbes: Recession dead ahead

I found it- it"s Jim Stack in Forbes.

Ha
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Re: Forbes: Recession dead ahead
Old 06-06-2006, 07:50 PM   #8
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Re: Forbes: Recession dead ahead

Quote:
Forbes: Recession dead ahead
BUY! BUY! BUY!
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Re: Forbes: Recession dead ahead
Old 06-06-2006, 08:16 PM   #9
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Re: Forbes: Recession dead ahead

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cool Dood
Quote:
Forbes: Recession dead ahead
BUY! BUY! BUY!
SELL SELL SELL!!!!

(Hey, can't fault a guy for trying to buy some index funds on the cheap can you? )

Seriously, if you opened up Forbes and the magazine consisted of a single sentence that said "We have no idea which way the market is going and no one else does either", how many issues would fly off the newsstands?

They gotta fill up the pages between the ads somehow...
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Re: Forbes: Recession dead ahead
Old 06-06-2006, 08:42 PM   #10
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Re: Forbes: Recession dead ahead

CASH! CASH! CASH!. That 5% in a CD is going to look pretty fine the next few years. Well, I think so anyway.
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Re: Forbes: Recession dead ahead
Old 06-06-2006, 08:52 PM   #11
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Re: Forbes: Recession dead ahead

Quote:
Originally Posted by justin
Seriously, if you opened up Forbes and the magazine consisted of a single sentence that said "We have no idea which way the market is going and no one else does either", how many issues would fly off the newsstands?

They gotta fill up the pages between the ads somehow...
They should be able to find something worth talking about that doesn't require stock market predictions. After all, look at how much discussion there is at boards like this one.

Ok, never mind.

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Re: Forbes: Recession dead ahead
Old 06-07-2006, 06:44 AM   #12
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Re: Forbes: Recession dead ahead

FWIW, I think there is a pretty decent chance of a recession of some kind next year. Yield curve just about to invert, Fed raising rates again, housing market slowing down or coming apart... I also note that while commodities are still high and volatile, they are not shooting up the way they have in the past few years.

Not to say we should all panic, but I think it is a reasonable time to re-examine one's risk tolerance and make sure your portfolio squares with it.
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Re: Forbes: Recession dead ahead
Old 06-07-2006, 07:10 AM   #13
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Re: Forbes: Recession dead ahead

U.S Defecit at record highs.

U.S Debt Stratospheric.

U.S Households refinanced Homes to massive levels.

40% of U.S Treasuries held by Foreigners who will not invest in losing currency.

Iraq Police Action draining Men/Women and Resources

Ineffective Leadership, Partisan Politics.

Denial of U.S Populace to face reality of current situation.

I do not have confidance that the U.S Public could hunker down in a manner necessary to fight the problem, Conspicous Consumerism is seen as a right.

I have said it so many times, but the U.S Economy is a Train Wreck about to happen, you need Foreign Unfriendly oil to fuel your cars, you need Foreigners to prop up your debt, overseas customers are now competitors, you may be Captain of your own ship but some one elses hand is on the tiller.

I am 40% Cash, too many uncertainties, I am adding Pfizer and Trans Canada Pipelines, good dividend that is safe.
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Re: Forbes: Recession dead ahead
Old 06-07-2006, 07:51 AM   #14
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Re: Forbes: Recession dead ahead

I'm gonna get ready and do nothing!

That's my stand, too. I've found that, more often than not, whenever I try to do something about it, I end up doing more harm than good!

Let the games begin.
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Re: Forbes: Recession dead ahead
Old 06-07-2006, 08:26 AM   #15
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Re: Forbes: Recession dead ahead

I was just listening to Bernake's latest speech again, the one where he says he is worried about the economy slowing down(I will lower rates), and then turns around and says that Inflation many be a problem(I will raise rates)


My take, 25 basis points , no more until after elections, then a gradual and continous series of rate hikes.

China is preparing for the day, post 2008, when all those people employed to build the Olympic facilities become unemployed, they are starting to concentrate more on their domestic market and less reliance upon exports.
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Re: Forbes: Recession dead ahead
Old 06-07-2006, 09:11 AM   #16
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Re: Forbes: Recession dead ahead

Duh

The bulk of the portfolio - do nothing except for 110-my age which was last year's adjustment.

Out in putz/hobby/male hormone land - a little STON, EGLE, ILA and I too am watching Pfizer and of course BUD.

Nothing like beer and drugs in a recession!!!

heh heh heh heh heh - still own Glaxo and Lilly from the early 90's 'recession?'
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Re: Forbes: Recession dead ahead
Old 06-07-2006, 09:39 AM   #17
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Re: Forbes: Recession dead ahead

I like Target. They're having a sale right now.
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Re: Forbes: Recession dead ahead
Old 06-07-2006, 10:49 AM   #18
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Re: Forbes: Recession dead ahead

Sticking my neck out:

My take - two more 25 basis point rate hikes this summer (to demonstrate hawkishness, although inflation readings may also warrant aggressiveness) , then no action for the rest of the year. Economic slowdown will become apparent in the fall, and at some point people (especially the politicians come November) will be screaming bloody murder that interest rates are too high.

If inflation pressures stop building (and ECRI thinks they have already leveled off), then the Fed may actually be faced with needing to lower rates somewhat next year.

Audrey
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Re: Forbes: Recession dead ahead
Old 06-07-2006, 11:39 AM   #19
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Re: Forbes: Recession dead ahead

Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1
My take - two more 25 basis point rate hikes this summer (to demonstrate hawkishness, although inflation readings may also warrant aggressiveness) , then no action for the rest of the year.* Economic slowdown will become apparent in the fall, and at some point people (especially the politicians come November) will be screaming bloody murder that interest rates are too high.

If inflation pressures stop building (and ECRI thinks they have already leveled off), then the Fed may actually be faced with needing to lower rates somewhat next year.

Audrey
Heh, I actually saw a story indicating that the National Assoc. of Realtors is already squealing in paid for the Fed to pause.
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Re: Forbes: Recession dead ahead
Old 06-07-2006, 02:55 PM   #20
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Re: Forbes: Recession dead ahead

Quote:
Originally Posted by brewer12345
FWIW, I think there is a pretty decent chance of a recession of some kind next year.*
Is it just me, or does June 2006 feel eerily like June 2002 all over again?
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