Forum Picks

I just got back from vacation and took me a day or so to get my password back. Will update the charts with some of the new picks.

-h
 
lswswein said:
I just got back from vacation and took me a day or so to get my password back. Will update the charts with some of the new picks.
-h
Click to expand...

This one won't do that well in performance, unless the software can break out return from dividend versus capital appreciation. The goal is to grow NAV 4-5% a year and pay around a 10% dividend..........
 
View Picks from ER

I added TONE. That was a great call by brewer. I am looking at others that got suggested but not many seem to have some detailed analysis of the stock. I don't want to just add names without any justification. Could use more details guys. Also let me know if you want to sell any of them.

As FD points out there is no way to keep track of stock appreciation vs dividends. Also the weighting is like the Dow right now - based on the stock price not equal weighting. Best way to look at the performance from inception and also the charts they have.
-h
 
lswswein said:
View Picks from ER

I added TONE. That was a great call by brewer. I am looking at others that got suggested but not many seem to have some detailed analysis of the stock. I don't want to just add names without any justification. Could use more details guys. Also let me know if you want to sell any of them.

As FD points out there is no way to keep track of stock appreciation vs dividends. Also the weighting is like the Dow right now - based on the stock price not equal weighting. Best way to look at the performance from inception and also the charts they have.
-h
Click to expand...

I'm ok with that........do you need more info about AOD??
 
I added the rest of them, including the following:
AOD & MGEE being FD's choices. I added MGEE at $35 (price on May18 ) just so that it gets tracked.
POT as kumquat's choice and FORG as semtex's choice. FORG went up and then fell - any followup on it. I did not find much discussion for the rest of them.
AOD was interesting because it is a fund not a stock - would be intersting if it starts trading at a significant discount or premium to its stocks.
Someone raised the issue of DSX dividends - they now show up. I didn't do anything - its gets reflected automatically based on payout dates

hope this is useful
-h
 
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I listened to Eagle's presentation at the Bear Stern's program earlier this month. Very interesting discussion about the industry as a whole. I can't find Diana's presentation on the internet.

It appears that the industry is good to go for at least 5 - 6 years. What he said about relationships being important (almost leverageable IMHO) in this industry is true. There is a real sense of community in shipping. The operators need to be very good business people but if you get a bad rep you have to work a lot harder to make the same profit.
 
maddythebeagle said:
Ahh...not to anybody owns the picks, but I was the first to mention BPOP awhile back....;)
Click to expand...

:confused: - I don't get it. Didn't see anything there. Also there have been lots of threads where a stock gets mentioned but no real discussion about fundamentals.

Anyway an interesting thing, I now have the all the picks with equal weigthing too. The performance is slightly different but not much.

View Eq Wgt ER

-h
 
Interesting to watch with a bag of popcorn.

Looks like one really good pick, one really bad pick, and everything else crowding up the middle.

Please trade me to the 1996 Packers!
Click to expand...

In a curious bit of coincidence, I chose my "New England Patriots 1996 AFC Champions" coffee mug this morning...
 
Heh, well, you don't get my best ideas, so it is what it is. I do have some duty to my employer...
 
brewer12345 said:
Heh, well, you don't get my best ideas, so it is what it is. I do have some duty to my employer...
Click to expand...

:D:D:D

We should know that on this forum everyone wants everything for free..........:p
 
Hey, not being critical, just observing.

If I wanted to be critical, I'd be bringing up the handful of real losers people have recommended in the last year or so, none of which have made it into the tracking database...

Really interesting watching how this curves to darn near track the s&p 500, more or less.
 
cute fuzzy bunny said:
Really interesting watching how this curves to darn near track the s&p 500, more or less.
Click to expand...

I think its a function of the relatively short period of time the tracking has been going on.

I started buying DSX about a year ago at 10, for example. Much better than the indexes and more than offsets BPOP, et al going sideways.
 
cute fuzzy bunny said:
Hey, not being critical, just observing.

If I wanted to be critical, I'd be bringing up the handful of real losers people have recommended in the last year or so, none of which have made it into the tracking database...

Really interesting watching how this curves to darn near track the s&p 500, more or less.
Click to expand...

This year reminds me of 1999..............:p:p
 
Actually, I was thinking of 1989 or a little later. Think about it: economic competition from a hotshot Asian country, a real estate market that has gone to pot, a junk bond market that can only be described as frothy.
 
Big difference I see is that everything seems a little puffy, rather than absolutely ridiculous prices on companies that clearly were never going to make any money, alongside relatively ridiculous prices on companies that were.

Funny, I was just reading this tidbit from one of Bernsteins old articles.

"Next, consider that the 100 largest stocks on the Nasdaq sell at a PE of 100. We’re talking now about approximately one-quarter of the capitalization of the U.S. stock market. The probability that this huge chunk of the economy will grow en bloc at 40% to 60% for the next five years is about the same as that of the Empire State Building spontaneously levitating to Beardstown by breakfast tomorrow.

A much more reasonable supposition is that the Nasdaq 100 sits at the far left end of the blue curve with earnings growth in the teens, yielding long-term bond-like returns accompanied by Ivana Trump-like volatility. There is nothing to prevent these shares from rising another 50% in the next year. But in the long run, the grim picture painted above is not idle conjecture or opinion. It is mathematical fact.

Finally, I want to be clear about one thing: the Asness model is wildly optimistic (as he himself admits). The real world decay of the most glamorous companies' earnings growth is breathtaking. In their landmark study of earnings growth persistence, Fuller, Huberts, and Levinson (Journal of Portfolio Management, Winter 1993) looked at stocks sorted by PE. They found that the top quintile¾ the most popular growth stocks¾ increased their earnings about 10% faster than the market in year one, 3% faster in year two, 2% faster in years three and four, and about 1% faster in years five and six. After that, their growth was the same as the market's. In other words, you can count on a growth stock increasing its earnings, on average, about 20% cumulatively more than the market over six years. After that, nothing.

Perhaps times have changed since the 1973-1990 period analyzed in the above-cited study. Let's be generous and assume that in the New Era the top quintile can manage a 50% cumulative growth advantage over the market. As I'm writing this, the top quintile of the 1,000 largest stocks with positive earnings sells at an average multiple of 78. A one-time 50% earnings growth advantage does not do much to justify such a valuation relative to the rest of the market (which sells at a PE of about 20).

It would seem, then, that a prerequisite for investing in the New Era is an inability or unwillingness to run the numbers. At some point in the not too distant future, we shall shake our heads and wonder how so many folks confused the forest with a gold mine."

The not-to-distant future turned out to be almost immediately after he wrote this article and published it.
 
I don't think the US markets are valued to silly excess like 1999. As CFB indicates, most things appear to be pretty fairly valued. I know I have to dig harder and longer for good deals and sometimes hold my nose over some pretty scary litigation/business issues/etc. to make money.
 
brewer12345 said:
Actually, I was thinking of 1989 or a little later. Think about it: economic competition from a hotshot Asian country, a real estate market that has gone to pot, a junk bond market that can only be described as frothy.
Click to expand...

As long as we can stay away from another 1994..........I'm ok with the way things are going........however,a nice 8-10% pullback would be nice to find some opportunities.........:)
 
cute fuzzy bunny said:
Hey, not being critical, just observing.

If I wanted to be critical, I'd be bringing up the handful of real losers people have recommended in the last year or so, none of which have made it into the tracking database...

Really interesting watching how this curves to darn near track the s&p 500, more or less.
Click to expand...

Probably AOD will LOOK like a dud, but it's distributing at better than 10%, with no internal option strategies, so it's still worth a look.........
 
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