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Old 05-25-2007, 10:53 AM   #61
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Heh, well, you don't get my best ideas, so it is what it is. I do have some duty to my employer...


We should know that on this forum everyone wants everything for free..........
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Old 05-25-2007, 10:54 AM   #62
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Hey, not being critical, just observing.

If I wanted to be critical, I'd be bringing up the handful of real losers people have recommended in the last year or so, none of which have made it into the tracking database...

Really interesting watching how this curves to darn near track the s&p 500, more or less.
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Old 05-25-2007, 10:58 AM   #63
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Really interesting watching how this curves to darn near track the s&p 500, more or less.
I think its a function of the relatively short period of time the tracking has been going on.

I started buying DSX about a year ago at 10, for example. Much better than the indexes and more than offsets BPOP, et al going sideways.
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Old 05-25-2007, 11:05 AM   #64
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Heh, well, you don't get my best ideas, so it is what it is. I do have some duty to my employer...
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Old 05-25-2007, 11:06 AM   #65
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Hey, not being critical, just observing.

If I wanted to be critical, I'd be bringing up the handful of real losers people have recommended in the last year or so, none of which have made it into the tracking database...

Really interesting watching how this curves to darn near track the s&p 500, more or less.
This year reminds me of 1999..............
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Old 05-25-2007, 11:09 AM   #66
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Actually, I was thinking of 1989 or a little later. Think about it: economic competition from a hotshot Asian country, a real estate market that has gone to pot, a junk bond market that can only be described as frothy.
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Old 05-25-2007, 11:11 AM   #67
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Big difference I see is that everything seems a little puffy, rather than absolutely ridiculous prices on companies that clearly were never going to make any money, alongside relatively ridiculous prices on companies that were.

Funny, I was just reading this tidbit from one of Bernsteins old articles.

"Next, consider that the 100 largest stocks on the Nasdaq sell at a PE of 100. We’re talking now about approximately one-quarter of the capitalization of the U.S. stock market. The probability that this huge chunk of the economy will grow en bloc at 40% to 60% for the next five years is about the same as that of the Empire State Building spontaneously levitating to Beardstown by breakfast tomorrow.

A much more reasonable supposition is that the Nasdaq 100 sits at the far left end of the blue curve with earnings growth in the teens, yielding long-term bond-like returns accompanied by Ivana Trump-like volatility. There is nothing to prevent these shares from rising another 50% in the next year. But in the long run, the grim picture painted above is not idle conjecture or opinion. It is mathematical fact.

Finally, I want to be clear about one thing: the Asness model is wildly optimistic (as he himself admits). The real world decay of the most glamorous companies' earnings growth is breathtaking. In their landmark study of earnings growth persistence, Fuller, Huberts, and Levinson (Journal of Portfolio Management, Winter 1993) looked at stocks sorted by PE. They found that the top quintile the most popular growth stocks increased their earnings about 10% faster than the market in year one, 3% faster in year two, 2% faster in years three and four, and about 1% faster in years five and six. After that, their growth was the same as the market's. In other words, you can count on a growth stock increasing its earnings, on average, about 20% cumulatively more than the market over six years. After that, nothing.

Perhaps times have changed since the 1973-1990 period analyzed in the above-cited study. Let's be generous and assume that in the New Era the top quintile can manage a 50% cumulative growth advantage over the market. As I'm writing this, the top quintile of the 1,000 largest stocks with positive earnings sells at an average multiple of 78. A one-time 50% earnings growth advantage does not do much to justify such a valuation relative to the rest of the market (which sells at a PE of about 20).

It would seem, then, that a prerequisite for investing in the New Era is an inability or unwillingness to run the numbers. At some point in the not too distant future, we shall shake our heads and wonder how so many folks confused the forest with a gold mine."

The not-to-distant future turned out to be almost immediately after he wrote this article and published it.
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Old 05-25-2007, 11:14 AM   #68
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I don't think the US markets are valued to silly excess like 1999. As CFB indicates, most things appear to be pretty fairly valued. I know I have to dig harder and longer for good deals and sometimes hold my nose over some pretty scary litigation/business issues/etc. to make money.
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Old 05-25-2007, 02:21 PM   #69
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Actually, I was thinking of 1989 or a little later. Think about it: economic competition from a hotshot Asian country, a real estate market that has gone to pot, a junk bond market that can only be described as frothy.
As long as we can stay away from another 1994..........I'm ok with the way things are going........however,a nice 8-10% pullback would be nice to find some opportunities.........
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Old 05-25-2007, 02:25 PM   #70
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Hey, not being critical, just observing.

If I wanted to be critical, I'd be bringing up the handful of real losers people have recommended in the last year or so, none of which have made it into the tracking database...

Really interesting watching how this curves to darn near track the s&p 500, more or less.
Probably AOD will LOOK like a dud, but it's distributing at better than 10%, with no internal option strategies, so it's still worth a look.........
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Old 05-25-2007, 03:18 PM   #71
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Heh, well, you don't get my best ideas, so it is what it is. I do have some duty to my employer...
You can tell me good buddy. I won't tell anyone.
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John Hancock Closed End funds
Old 05-29-2007, 08:02 PM   #72
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John Hancock Closed End funds

Not a recommendation but wondered if anyone is invested in any of these funds? Some are selling at a discount with respectable yields.

John Hancock Funds - Closed-End Funds - Daily Prices
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Old 05-29-2007, 08:51 PM   #73
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I have "unstickied" this thread. The new board for stock picking is here: http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f44/

I moved the ANH-B discussion to the new board.

Brewer is nicely trying to post there but you guys are still stuck on this thread.
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