Forum Picks

[lswswein]

Hi Guys
This is the Portfolio of some of the stuff Brewer has recommened over the last few months. I started tracking them starting in April. The website I am using has good graphic tools etc. I will add other picks as I go through them or you could make your own recommended stock portfolio list and post it here. Would be a good exercise!

http://www.icarra.com/viewPortfolio.php?id=907

have fun & hope this is ok with brewer!
-h

[TromboneAl]

Nice graphs. Looks like an ad for indexing. Did you figure in expenses?

[brewer12345]

Interesting. Do the performance numbers include dividends? How did you arrive at the weightings?

[lswswein]

Quote:

Originally Posted by TromboneAl Nice graphs. Looks like an ad for indexing. Did you figure in expenses?

No expenses included. I think with all the discount brokers around - $10 for a trade, I thought it would be miniscule. I added SPY(not SPX) for comparison but do understand that a better index to compare would be A small value index.

-h

[lswswein]

Quote:

Originally Posted by brewer12345 Interesting. Do the performance numbers include dividends? How did you arrive at the weightings?

All dividends included. I made SPY 50% of the portfolio to make for easy comparison. Everything else is equal weighting except WHI which I will fix soon. It lists recent events like dividends etc. I basically did it for the charts. There are more features which I will start exploring.

-h

[Brat]

You didn't include DSX's upcomming dividend of $.50 payable later this month.

I bought DSX for dividends, which increased after Brewer's recommendation. Because I have some understanding of the business I know that it is cyclical and profits can evaporate but that can happen with any business. If it had just stayed flat I would still be content.

[brewer12345]

Hmmm, no addition of TONE?

[lswswein]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brat You didn't include DSX's upcomming dividend of $.50 payable later this month. I bought DSX for dividends, which increased after Brewer's recommendation. Because I have some understanding of the business I know that it is cyclical and profits can evaporate but that can happen with any business. If it had just stayed flat I would still be content.

Right now it show Dividends upcoming 1 week away. DSX dividend might show up later in the week. I will check for that.

Quote:

Hmmm, no addition of TONE?

I don't remember a lot of discussion about this one. Will add it soon.

-h

[brewer12345]

OK, in t hat case:

I have started buying TONE. This was a sleepy Nebraska savings & loan until a few years ago when they decided to go public and start expanding. Things went pretty well for a while until 2004/2005 they decided it would be a jolly idea to expand into FL by doing residential construction loans for vacation and retirement homes. You can imagine how that has panned out. They took their lumps and the stock price slumped, especially in 2007 when the market shot anything that had anything to do with defaults in the RE market.

The stock now trades at about 1.25X book value, which is absurdly cheap for a retail bank with a good deposit base , more than adequate capital, and pretty good loan quality. They have been working through their issues with the construction loans that caused them some problems, and the rest of the business seems to be plugging away. The dividend is pretty modest, but I would not be surprised to see them bump it up to attract attention (possibly at the shareholders' meeting next week). Finally, they are now beyond the 3 year window when demutualized banks are prohibited from being acquired, so it isn't a huge stretch to imagine them selling out at some point.

The risk with this stock is pretty straightforward: they could have more problem loans in the future. Since they are a portfolio lender (make loans the expect to keep, not sell) and they recently had to deal with a problem, I suspect they are being pretty careful.

Anything close to $25 a share looks like a steal to me.

[FIRE'd@51]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brat You didn't include DSX's upcomming dividend of $.50 payable later this month.

DSX goes ex-dividend May 14, so the 0.50 dividend is captured in the current stock price. To add it before then would be double counting.

[brewer12345]

Well, I hope someone else besides me bought TONE at $25 and under because it apparently looked like a steal to someone besides me. Announced last night that they are being bought by CapitalSource for $34.46/share.

Better make sure TONE gets added to the nice 'lil portfolio tracking site.

[Dawg52]

Quote:

Originally Posted by brewer12345 Well, I hope someone else besides me bought TONE at $25 and under because it apparently looked like a steal to someone besides me. Announced last night that they are being bought by CapitalSource for $34.46/share. Better make sure TONE gets added to the nice 'lil portfolio tracking site.

When Brewer speaks.........I listen. You gonna hold?

[Martha]

I stickied this if you want to give it a try as the stock picker topic.

[brewer12345]

Quote:

Originally Posted by DOG52 You gonna hold?

At least until the trading on the name calms down. Pending due diligence on CSE, I may choose to hold the shares for the long term. If I am comfy with the name, I will hold at least until I get to the 1 year and 1 day point, and maybe longer.

A $2.50+/share CSE dividend is pretty juicy.

[Texas Proud]

Dang Brewer.....

A day late a SEVEN dollars short!!!!

[semtex]

How about a contest?

I will give cvi/a.to, a junior oil. I bot at 6.9 in Canadian dollar at Feb. Just the start of the journey.

[brewer12345]

Quote:

Originally Posted by FinanceDude I'll post a few by the end of day........... One I'll talk about may be a little volatile for you guys: CAMH.OB I have been buying it since around $2.40. Anything under $3.25 is a steal, IMHO. They have a marketing agreement with St.Jude Medical on their kits.

But they do not appear to make any money. Investment rationale?

[Dawg52]

Quote:

Originally Posted by brewer12345 At least until the trading on the name calms down. Pending due diligence on CSE, I may choose to hold the shares for the long term. If I am comfy with the name, I will hold at least until I get to the 1 year and 1 day point, and maybe longer. A $2.50+/share CSE dividend is pretty juicy.

Wow, that is almost a 10% dividend based on CSE current price. Thanks for the tip on TONE and keep us up to date.

[brewer12345]

A suggestion:

If this is going to be an analysis thread, let's try to be a bit more robust. Maybe pick one stock at a time and do something like a detailed write-up on it as to why it might be a good investment, estimated fair value, and any supporting details, figures, calculations, etc. For the more esoteric stuff, a primer on the industry is probably also a good idea.

[FinanceDude]

Quote:

Originally Posted by brewer12345 A suggestion: If this is going to be an analysis thread, let's try to be a bit more robust. Maybe pick one stock at a time and do something like a detailed write-up on it as to why it might be a good investment, estimated fair value, and any supporting details, figures, calculations, etc. For the more esoteric stuff, a primer on the industry is probably also a good idea.

I'll go along with that....... Also, brewer, I know you don't directly do the portfolio management where you work, but I would put a disclaimer like I have on your sig. Just a friendly FYI.........