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[lswswein]

Hi Guys
This is the Portfolio of some of the stuff Brewer has recommened over the last few months. I started tracking them starting in April. The website I am using has good graphic tools etc. I will add other picks as I go through them or you could make your own recommended stock portfolio list and post it here. Would be a good exercise!

http://www.icarra.com/viewPortfolio.php?id=907

have fun & hope this is ok with brewer!
-h

 

[TromboneAl]

Nice graphs. Looks like an ad for indexing. Did you figure in expenses?

 

[brewer12345]

Interesting. Do the performance numbers include dividends? How did you arrive at the weightings?

 

[lswswein]

Nice graphs. Looks like an ad for indexing. Did you figure in expenses?

No expenses included. I think with all the discount brokers around - $10 for a trade, I thought it would be miniscule. I added SPY(not SPX) for comparison but do understand that a better index to compare would be A small value index.

-h

 

[lswswein]

Interesting. Do the performance numbers include dividends? How did you arrive at the weightings?

All dividends included. I made SPY 50% of the portfolio to make for easy comparison. Everything else is equal weighting except WHI which I will fix soon. It lists recent events like dividends etc. I basically did it for the charts. There are more features which I will start exploring.

-h

 

[Brat]

You didn't include DSX's upcomming dividend of $.50 payable later this month.

I bought DSX for dividends, which increased after Brewer's recommendation. Because I have some understanding of the business I know that it is cyclical and profits can evaporate but that can happen with any business. If it had just stayed flat I would still be content.

 

[brewer12345]

Hmmm, no addition of TONE?

 

[lswswein]

You didn't include DSX's upcomming dividend of $.50 payable later this month.

I bought DSX for dividends, which increased after Brewer's recommendation. Because I have some understanding of the business I know that it is cyclical and profits can evaporate but that can happen with any business. If it had just stayed flat I would still be content.

Right now it show Dividends upcoming 1 week away. DSX dividend might show up later in the week. I will check for that.

Hmmm, no addition of TONE?

I don't remember a lot of discussion about this one. Will add it soon.

-h

 

[brewer12345]

OK, in t hat case:

I have started buying TONE. This was a sleepy Nebraska savings & loan until a few years ago when they decided to go public and start expanding. Things went pretty well for a while until 2004/2005 they decided it would be a jolly idea to expand into FL by doing residential construction loans for vacation and retirement homes. You can imagine how that has panned out. They took their lumps and the stock price slumped, especially in 2007 when the market shot anything that had anything to do with defaults in the RE market.

The stock now trades at about 1.25X book value, which is absurdly cheap for a retail bank with a good deposit base , more than adequate capital, and pretty good loan quality. They have been working through their issues with the construction loans that caused them some problems, and the rest of the business seems to be plugging away. The dividend is pretty modest, but I would not be surprised to see them bump it up to attract attention (possibly at the shareholders' meeting next week). Finally, they are now beyond the 3 year window when demutualized banks are prohibited from being acquired, so it isn't a huge stretch to imagine them selling out at some point.

The risk with this stock is pretty straightforward: they could have more problem loans in the future. Since they are a portfolio lender (make loans the expect to keep, not sell) and they recently had to deal with a problem, I suspect they are being pretty careful.

Anything close to $25 a share looks like a steal to me.

 

[FIRE'd@51]

You didn't include DSX's upcomming dividend of $.50 payable later this month.

DSX goes ex-dividend May 14, so the 0.50 dividend is captured in the current stock price. To add it before then would be double counting.

 

[brewer12345]

Well, I hope someone else besides me bought TONE at $25 and under because it apparently looked like a steal to someone besides me. Announced last night that they are being bought by CapitalSource for $34.46/share.

Better make sure TONE gets added to the nice 'lil portfolio tracking site.

 

[Dawg52]

Well, I hope someone else besides me bought TONE at $25 and under because it apparently looked like a steal to someone besides me. Announced last night that they are being bought by CapitalSource for $34.46/share.

Better make sure TONE gets added to the nice 'lil portfolio tracking site.

When Brewer speaks.........I listen. You gonna hold?

 

[Martha]

I stickied this if you want to give it a try as the stock picker topic.

 

[brewer12345]

You gonna hold?

At least until the trading on the name calms down. Pending due diligence on CSE, I may choose to hold the shares for the long term. If I am comfy with the name, I will hold at least until I get to the 1 year and 1 day point, and maybe longer.

A $2.50+/share CSE dividend is pretty juicy.

 

[Texas Proud]

Dang Brewer.....

A day late a SEVEN dollars short!!!!

 

[semtex]

How about a contest?

I will give cvi/a.to, a junior oil. I bot at 6.9 in Canadian dollar at Feb. Just the start of the journey.

 

[brewer12345]

I'll post a few by the end of day...........

One I'll talk about may be a little volatile for you guys: CAMH.OB I have been buying it since around $2.40. Anything under $3.25 is a steal, IMHO. They have a marketing agreement with St.Jude Medical on their kits.

But they do not appear to make any money. Investment rationale?

 

[Dawg52]

At least until the trading on the name calms down. Pending due diligence on CSE, I may choose to hold the shares for the long term. If I am comfy with the name, I will hold at least until I get to the 1 year and 1 day point, and maybe longer.

A $2.50+/share CSE dividend is pretty juicy.

Wow, that is almost a 10% dividend based on CSE current price. Thanks for the tip on TONE and keep us up to date.

 

[brewer12345]

A suggestion:

If this is going to be an analysis thread, let's try to be a bit more robust. Maybe pick one stock at a time and do something like a detailed write-up on it as to why it might be a good investment, estimated fair value, and any supporting details, figures, calculations, etc. For the more esoteric stuff, a primer on the industry is probably also a good idea.

 

[FinanceDude]

A suggestion:

If this is going to be an analysis thread, let's try to be a bit more robust. Maybe pick one stock at a time and do something like a detailed write-up on it as to why it might be a good investment, estimated fair value, and any supporting details, figures, calculations, etc. For the more esoteric stuff, a primer on the industry is probably also a good idea.

I'll go along with that....... Also, brewer, I know you don't directly do the portfolio management where you work, but I would put a disclaimer like I have on your sig. Just a friendly FYI.........

 

[Nords]

A suggestion: If this is going to be an analysis thread, let's try to be a bit more robust.

In addition to new holdings, it's also worth analyzing when to sell current holdings like Stonemor, Eagle, Diana, Intel... compared to the sell decision, buying is easy.

FD, I've been biting my tongue about the rationale behind your latest recommendations-- that's not the kind of analysis your clients want, is it?!?

 

[brewer12345]

Wow, that is almost a 10% dividend based on CSE current price. Thanks for the tip on TONE and keep us up to date.

I had a chance to comb through CSE's financials. Based on what I saw, I am content to hang onto TONE at least through the 1 year window for cap gains, and quite possibly longer if they do a good job of integrating the bank and capitalizing on growing deposits as a funding base.

However, there are significant risks. By far, the biggest risk with CSE is that they are a credit shop. They do a wide variety of loans aimed at middle-market businesses. Average loan is under $20MM, and they specialize in real estate, healthcare, and asset-based loans. Generally, they seem to do a good job of underwriting the loans, but if we go into a recession CSE will start seeing loan losses pick up (as you would expect). I don't know what kind of pain a 2002-2003 experience would put them in, since the company was started in 2000 and was pretty small by the time they IPO'd in 2003, but it would probably be substantial. Having said that, they appear to have a nicely dversified, well underwritten book of loans and the addition og TONE should spread them even more widely.

Given the attractive dividend yield and CSE's performance to date, I think it is worth the risk for a modest position.

 

[brewer12345]

In addition to new holdings, it's also worth analyzing when to sell current holdings like Stonemor, Eagle, Diana, Intel... compared to the sell decision, buying is easy.

Funny you should mention that. I have been gradually selling my STON position as it got over 25. I just let some more go at 27, and I still have half my original position. STON is a nice company, but the yield is down to 7% and change. I will let te rest go if it gets to 30, since I think the yield would be too thin at that price. I;ve little doubt that the company will see increased cash flow from teh acquisitions they did last year, but given the small size and increasingly small yield I believe there are an increasing number of more attractive opportunities as the price goes up.

 

[FinanceDude]

I am bowing out. I'll leave it up to brewer. It appears the bias on this thread is toward large dividend with moderate upward price appreciation potential.

And Nords was right, unless I'm willing to put ALL my portfolios on here, with a large amount of in-depth discussion about them, I probably shouldn't................

FWIW, I have been buying and selling MGEE for many years............

 

[brewer12345]

Hey, FD, don't go off in a huff. I for ne am genuinely interested in any ideas. But I really value careful analysis and tangible cash flows from anything I buy.