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Old 04-22-2010, 09:36 AM   #41
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Well, gee, I'd think that technical analysis should be at least as well respected as astrology...
The really funny thing is that I learned about it from my technical analysis buddies over on M*

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Old 04-22-2010, 10:32 AM   #42
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over on M*

Audrey
M*?

I think a Bradley turn date can go either way up or down and there is a +/- 3 day window.
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Old 04-22-2010, 10:43 AM   #43
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Morningstar

Yes, but it usually signifies a change in direction.
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Old 04-22-2010, 11:40 AM   #44
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As he says, it really isn't a projection; more of saying 'if the current market follows the depression market'.
That would make more sense if the economy was following the path charted in the 1930's. It's not.

Real GDP Growth:

1930 . . . (8.6%)
1931 . . . (6.5%)
1932 . . . (13.1%)

2008 . . . +0.4%
2009 . . . (2.4%)
2010E . . . ~3%
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Old 04-22-2010, 12:05 PM   #45
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That would make more sense if the economy was following the path charted in the 1930's. It's not.

Real GDP Growth:

1930 . . . (8.6%)
1931 . . . (6.5%)
1932 . . . (13.1%)

2008 . . . +0.4%
2009 . . . (2.4%)
2010E . . . ~3%
Read up on Technical Analysis
Technical analysis - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Technical analysis is a security analysis discipline for forecasting the future direction of prices through the study of past market data, primarily price and volume
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Old 04-22-2010, 12:07 PM   #46
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Read up on Technical Analysis
I'm familiar with technical analysis. I wrote an MBA thesis on it for a professor who was trying to use chaos theory to predict markets. So I know enough about it to consider it bunk . . . particularly when trying to chart 2010 versus 1930.

Somewhat off point, but one of my good friends is also a professional technical analyst for small cap companies. He worked for Lehman until, well, you know. He's since set up his own research shop with some of his Lehman colleagues and sells his analysis to institutional investors. He seems to be doing quite well. I recall one conversation with him in particular where he was trying to convince me of the superiority of technical analysis to fundamental analysis. But he never could quite explain how technical analysis was superior if it couldn't value an asset that multiple people hadn't already put a value on using a completely different technique.
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Old 04-22-2010, 12:58 PM   #47
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I'm familiar with technical analysis. I wrote an MBA thesis on it for a professor who was trying to use chaos theory to predict markets. So I know enough about it to consider it bunk . . . particularly when trying to chart 2010 versus 1930.
I would have understood your point if you noted that in your post. I thought you were trying to disprove Carl's 4-year cycle theory estimate with GDP.

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Somewhat off point, but one of my good friends is also a professional technical analyst for small cap companies. He worked for Lehman until, well, you know. He's since set up his own research shop with some of his Lehman colleagues and sells his analysis to institutional investors. He seems to be doing quite well. I recall one conversation with him in particular where he was trying to convince me of the superiority of technical analysis to fundamental analysis. But he never could quite explain how technical analysis was superior if it couldn't value an asset that multiple people hadn't already put a value on using a completely different technique.
Technical analysis and fundamental analysis are tools. Both have their value when used appropriately. I don't invest in individual stocks anymore. But when I did I would start with technical analysis for the general stock market direction then a specific industry direction and finally to a particular stocks in that industry. After all that I would look at the fundamentals of those stocks.
Investor's Business Daily provides good info as to the sectors.

There are many technical analysis methods and some are arcane. I find the simple ones are the best - e.g. moving averages; bollenger bands - sometimes momentum tools and oscillators.
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Old 04-22-2010, 01:15 PM   #48
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I thought you were trying to disprove Carl's 4-year cycle theory estimate with GDP.
I would have thought that Dow 11,000 in April 2010 already disproves a prediction of Dow 3,000 by mid-late 2010.
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Old 04-22-2010, 02:54 PM   #49
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I would have thought that Dow 11,000 in April 2010 already disproves a prediction of Dow 3,000 by mid-late 2010.
No, ya see it all depends on the wave count...
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Old 04-22-2010, 04:17 PM   #50
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Read up on Technical Analysis
Technical analysis - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Technical analysis is a security analysis discipline for forecasting the future direction of prices through the study of past market data, primarily price and volume
This technique is very useful because past performance is such a terrific guarantor of future results.
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Old 04-22-2010, 04:31 PM   #51
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Is there a technical analysis screen for dividend paying stocks?
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Old 04-22-2010, 05:42 PM   #52
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I would have thought that Dow 11,000 in April 2010 already disproves a prediction of Dow 3,000 by mid-late 2010.
Why?

PS - I'm not saying I agree with the prediction.
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Old 04-23-2010, 07:14 AM   #53
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Why?
Technically he still has time to make good on his prediction. But a 70% drop within a ~6 month period is unprecedented, and certainly wouldn't be a vindication of any chart comparison with the 1930s.
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Old 04-23-2010, 08:55 AM   #54
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Technically he still has time to make good on his prediction. But a 70% drop within a ~6 month period is unprecedented, and certainly wouldn't be a vindication of any chart comparison with the 1930s.
I don't think his levels will be reached and I don't thing the author does either. But, a large drop (20%+?) might be in the cards - we still are in a secular bear market since 2000. His noting it might be more of a cautionary statement.
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Old 04-23-2010, 10:38 AM   #55
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I don't think his levels will be reached and I don't thing the author does either. But, a large drop (20%+?) might be in the cards - we still are in a secular bear market since 2000. His noting it might be more of a cautionary statement.
Yeah, I guess you're never wrong as long as you just keep changing the forecast.
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Old 04-23-2010, 12:12 PM   #56
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Well to be fair, forecasts can only ever be two things:

Wrong or lucky
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Old 04-24-2010, 08:11 AM   #57
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I will probably going to 100% cash in the summer.
According to Scott Burns, "Sometimes a single statement can be so loaded with import that it just stops you."

The Coming Asset Preference Quake - Registered Investment Advisor

In interview with economist David Ranson:

Quote:
How can people protect themselves? ... The important thing to remember here, he noted, is that human beings have relied on other stores of value at other times— things like gold, silver, commodities, and real estate. After relying on paper assets for more than a century, he suggests, we may be revising our notions of safe ways to store wealth.
Didn't mention cash but...
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Old 04-24-2010, 09:37 AM   #58
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According to Scott Burns, "Sometimes a single statement can be so loaded with import that it just stops you."

The Coming Asset Preference Quake - Registered Investment Advisor

In interview with economist David Ranson:


Didn't mention cash but...
I didn't say I was going to stay in cash. I too am negative on the dollar. After I'm 100% in cash I'll post my asset allocation goal.
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