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Re: fundamental premise
Old 02-28-2007, 09:04 PM   #21
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Re: fundamental premise

Quote:
Originally Posted by yakers
IMHO the population will have to stabilize (or worse, reset downward)
You mean because of the Malthusian catastrophe (first published in 1798).

Later updated as The Population Bomb which famously forecast:

Quote:
"The battle to feed all of humanity is over. In the 1970s and 1980s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now. At this late date nothing can prevent a substantial increase in the world death rate..."
The beauty of capitalism is its ability to allocate scarce resources and to solve problems of scarcity. People have always worried that the world was going to run out of food, oil, water, etc. etc. It never has. When shortages develop, prices increase until new supply is created or alternatives are found. It's a fantastic system. If only the whole world embraced it more fully, there would be more than enough of everything to go around.
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Re: fundamental premise
Old 02-28-2007, 09:15 PM   #22
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Re: fundamental premise

I'll attribute my 'faith' in future economic growth to our genes. We are, by definition, survivors. Over the long term, our standard of living has improved, from caves and fire and smoke signals to central heated and air-conditioned homes and instant communication. I doubt that the fundamental drivers of that will change.

Of course, we could have a 'hiccup' in that progress. In the timelines we are talking about, a 'hiccup' could last 40,000 years.

I just hope that we don't experience that hiccup in our lifetimes.

Or maybe we *are* experiencing it now, and we don't know it. Maybe 10,000 years from now, people will look back and say, 'Those poor people in the 2000's - they had wars and died from disease and their primitive personal transportation systems. Many of them worked until their 60's! What a terrible, terrible life'.

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Re: fundamental premise
Old 02-28-2007, 09:18 PM   #23
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Re: fundamental premise

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Originally Posted by wab
Global diversification.
And how many years of returns data do you have to base that strategy on?
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Re: fundamental premise
Old 02-28-2007, 09:20 PM   #24
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Re: fundamental premise

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Originally Posted by 3 Yrs to Go
But who says the population is limited to the earth.

Even without that, the world still has vast, wide open spaces. Notwithstanding relatively new concerns about CO2, the developed world has increased economic growth while actually reducing pollution.
Yeah, if only we could ignore CO2.

http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/emi...globalghg.html

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Re: fundamental premise
Old 02-28-2007, 09:32 PM   #25
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Re: fundamental premise

Quote:
Originally Posted by sgeeeee
And how many years of returns data do you have to base that strategy on?
It's 10,000 years of data, but much of it is in EBCDIC and some of the really good stuff is in Sanskrit.
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Re: fundamental premise
Old 02-28-2007, 09:38 PM   #26
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Re: fundamental premise

Quote:
Originally Posted by wab
It's 10,000 years of data, but much of it is in EBCDIC and some of the really good stuff is in Sanskrit.
Now, that's not true at all, Wab. Show us the data. Over that 10,000 years there have been a lot of catastrophic downturns to many international investments. Tell me how an investment in an international fund would have done during all the 50 year periods over that 10,000 years.
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Re: fundamental premise
Old 03-01-2007, 06:52 AM   #27
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Re: fundamental premise

I'm with 3 years on the future scenarios. We could easily destroy ourselves in the next few decades. But, we have dodged a few bullets previously in that direction, and I will place my bets on us continuing to do so -- not that there is an alternative. And if we dodge the disaster bullet the exponential growth in IT, nano, biotech, will transform the world in ways we can't imagine. In 100 or 200 years we will probably be able to transfer our enhanced "minds" to machines. The speed of light is the only limiting factor and that is a maybe.

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Re: fundamental premise
Old 03-01-2007, 08:09 AM   #28
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Re: fundamental premise

Donheff said: And if we dodge the disaster bullet the exponential growth in IT, nano, biotech, will transform the world in ways we can't imagine. In 100 or 200 years we will probably be able to transfer our enhanced "minds" to machines. The speed of light is the only limiting factor and that is a maybe.

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I love this kind of talk.
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Re: fundamental premise
Old 03-01-2007, 09:06 AM   #29
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Re: fundamental premise

Quote:
Quote from: 3 Yrs to Go on February 28, 2007, 09:45:49 PM
.... the developed world has increased economic growth while actually reducing pollution.
Quote:
Originally Posted by eridanus
Now there you go, pointing out the fly in the ointment, can't we enjoy a 'glass half full' moment?

Seriously, you can look at the bright side here. We *have* reduced air pollution levels once we set our collective wills to it. The CO2 thing has been a more recent awareness, and is a tougher nut to crack. But I think we can, and will do it. There are some technological answers (coal with sequestered CO2, nuclear, renewables, etc).

I think it was Kurzweil on Science Friday, he was talking about predicting the future. In 1899, the news reports about the big problems facing society put urban pollution from horse manure and horse corpses (say that 10x fast) in the street at or near the top of the list. Who knew that in 30 years, horses would be largely displaced by the auto and truck? That created a new set of unforeseen problems.

Trivia: some breeds of work horses almost became extinct as they slaughtered them for dog food.

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Re: fundamental premise
Old 03-01-2007, 09:21 AM   #30
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Re: fundamental premise

If I had to guess what the year 2100 would look like, I'd guess we would have less dependence on petroleum-based fuels. The increasing costs of producing oil as reserves are depleted will cause a gradual shift to other energy sources for vehicles. I don't want to guess whether cars will be smaller or more efficient, but people are smart. If the fuel costs for 1 mile of travel go from ~12 cents per mile today in the USA to $1.20 or more per mile (in real terms) in the distant future (the change probably happening gradually), folks will go about their business in different ways (more efficient vehicles, less travel, more transit ridership, living closer to destinations, more telecommuting/televisiting, etc). The market will work one way or another.
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Re: fundamental premise
Old 03-01-2007, 09:33 AM   #31
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Re: fundamental premise

I have one prediction, and I have 100% confidence in it. If the market continues down, this board will see lots more posts voicing doubt.

Maybe few more "unretirements". Sometimes people might be able to see beyond today, but they can usually only believe today.

If today begins to look less rosy, we'll see all sorts of flip-flops coming out of the woodwork. Some very straightforward "I'm back to work, I can't stand this anymore" some carefully spun. Maybe just, "Are we sure very high equity allocations are clever for a retired person?"

Itís part of coming attractions on the ER Board!

Ha
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Re: fundamental premise
Old 03-01-2007, 09:42 AM   #32
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Re: fundamental premise

Quote:
Originally Posted by HaHa

Itís part of coming attractions on the ER Boar!
First there were market Bulls and Bears, and now we have ER Boars...or should that be Hogs? ...Pigs?

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Re: fundamental premise
Old 03-01-2007, 09:47 AM   #33
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Re: fundamental premise

Note that the population is increasing -- has been for a long time. More people = more people to sell to.
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Re: fundamental premise
Old 03-01-2007, 09:58 AM   #34
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Re: fundamental premise

As long as only about 5% of the population is truly FI at retirement, we will have enough spending going on for a couple generations at least.

My kid's kids? Not looking as bright...........of course I am sure I heard my grandfather saying the same things 30 years ago...........
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Re: fundamental premise
Old 03-01-2007, 10:38 AM   #35
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Re: fundamental premise

Quote:
Originally Posted by HaHa
I have one prediction, and I have 100% confidence in it. If the market continues down, this board will see lots more posts voicing doubt.
. . .
Ha
Yep. Never underestimate the fickleness of the American investor.
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Re: fundamental premise
Old 03-01-2007, 10:50 AM   #36
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Re: fundamental premise

Quote:
Originally Posted by sgeeeee
Yep. Never underestimate the fickleness of the American investor.
Ah yes - never underestimate the power of the pucker factor. The last little go round in 2002 I believe my lead sled dog(60/40ish Lifestrategy) was down -16.8% one quarter. Stiff upper lip, press on regardless, hurry up just stand there - all praise to Bogle, Vanguard and balanced index.

Took the 5th amendment on 'the pucker' though.

heh heh heh heh heh - Target 2015 for the next round. Plan to make use of the 5th amendment this time also.
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Re: fundamental premise
Old 03-01-2007, 07:32 PM   #37
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Re: fundamental premise

Quote:
Originally Posted by HaHa
I have one prediction, and I have 100% confidence in it. If the market continues down, this board will see lots more posts voicing doubt.

Maybe few more "unretirements". Sometimes people might be able to see beyond today, but they can usually only believe today.

If today begins to look less rosy, we'll see all sorts of flip-flops coming out of the woodwork. Some very straightforward "I'm back to work, I can't stand this anymore" some carefully spun. Maybe just, "Are we sure very high equity allocations are clever for a retired person?"

Itís part of coming attractions on the ER Board!

Ha
Could be. BTW, you have probably told us before but what is your overall asset allocation? Just curious.
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Re: fundamental premise
Old 03-01-2007, 09:49 PM   #38
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Re: fundamental premise

Quote:
Originally Posted by DOG52
Could be. BTW, you have probably told us before but what is your overall asset allocation? Just curious.
Dog,

Overall 60% equity, 39% fixed, 1% puts. In my taxable accounts I have only about $25,000 worth that I could sell without realizing large capital gains. I may sell that or not, as I feel it is cheap.

In my tax deferred accounts I am about out of equities.

Ha
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Re: fundamental premise
Old 03-02-2007, 08:38 AM   #39
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Re: fundamental premise

Quote:
Originally Posted by HaHa
I have one prediction, and I have 100% confidence in it. If the market continues down, this board will see lots more posts voicing doubt.

Maybe few more "unretirements". Sometimes people might be able to see beyond today, but they can usually only believe today.

If today begins to look less rosy, we'll see all sorts of flip-flops coming out of the woodwork. Some very straightforward "I'm back to work, I can't stand this anymore" some carefully spun. Maybe just, "Are we sure very high equity allocations are clever for a retired person?"

Itís part of coming attractions on the ER Board!

Ha
I know, this has been used before, but here goes: Ding, Ding, Ding. We have a winner.

Everybody's a champ when the team just keeps scoring. It's after a couple of fumbles that we find out who the real champs are.

We're all versed in the fundamental premise, "it's the long run that counts." Hurry up and do nothing. Now, there's a fundamental.
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Re: fundamental premise
Old 03-02-2007, 08:44 AM   #40
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Re: fundamental premise

Quote:
Originally Posted by Eagle43
I know, this has been used before, but here goes: Ding, Ding, Ding. We have a winner.

Everybody's a champ when the team just keeps scoring. It's after a couple of fumbles that we find out who the real champs are.

We're all versed in the fundamental premise, "it's the long run that counts." Hurry up and do nothing. Now, there's a fundamental.
Here is another fundamental: - If you don't watch the 'game', you're less likely to do anything.
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