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Old 02-18-2012, 03:42 PM   #41
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Walt34 mentioned that he thinks people habits won't change until gas get to around $6/gal. Stop and do a calculation. Never mind, I already did. If you travel 12000 miles per year, get 25 miles/gal and spend a $1 MORE per gal ($4 going to $5) it will cost you an additional $480 per year out of pocket. Will this kill the average person? No, but I might start affecting the people that don't have two nickels to rub together. They will be hurting like they always do when gas goes up. It's when the price of products go up significantly to cover the fuel cost is when the economy really gets affected. Grocery prices have already gone up due to fuel prices. Will they another hike? Stay tuned.
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Old 02-18-2012, 04:49 PM   #42
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I heard on the radio a few days ago that gasoline speculators are stockpiling waiting for the Iran situation to explode (pun intended). I don't recall hearing about gasoline stockpiling. Seems like it's always been oil.

I guess they have to start dumping some of it onto the market when they run out of storage if we keep staying under historic demand.
The world is full of liquids supply tanks, and they hold gasoline, diesel, sometimes ethanol, ng liquids that are liquid at normal temps, etc. They are the big cylindrical flat topped tanks, although these may hold crude.

They are basically an inventory managment tool, but it is also alleged that speculators store product in these waiting for price spikes.


Also re:fracking, that is not the only issue with shale gas. Lee Raymond, recently chairman of Exxon, has pointed out that the shale industry is very promotional and boosterish, with not much knowledge of how long these deposits will produce at economic flow rates. So far it appears that the production profile suggests a very rapid exhaustion of the well, as in 3-4 years. In contrast to this, some big midcontinent conventional fields like the Hugoton in Kansas and Oklahoma have been econmically producing since the 1930s.

Raymond wrote this piece to warn about investing a lot of money in LNG export facilities which he said may never pay a positive return because of insufficient input to amortize the investments.

Currently, many dry gas shale plays are being shut down so that the short-lived production is not used up on $3/mcf gas. Wet gas is a different story, as the liquids pricing comes off of crude prices.

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Old 02-18-2012, 06:57 PM   #43
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Frankly, assuming the fracking question can be answered safely and responsibly, I'm totally with Boone Pickens. Natural gas should be the bridge between oil and "green" renewables. We certainly have enough of it to bridge the gap. Ramp up with that in the next 10 years, kiss the Middle East goodbye, and slowly replace all fossil fuels with green renewables as the technology becomes more cost-effective.
Boone Pickens is what I like to refer to as oilfield trash and he'll screw 10 different ways before your eyes can even cross. what he is saying (and I don't know specifically what he said, nor do I care) may be reasonable solution, I would be very cautious that he'll screw everyone over. Case in point--Mesa petroleum, 1970's, drilling contract.

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2nd paragraph.....
The study, however, does not exonerate the shale drilling industry, noting that contamination can and often does occur from spills or mishandling of wastewater.
My opinion is this is a very rare instance. Not something that happens "often." Also, a halliburton exec recently drank a glass of their new clean frac fluids. And of course, the main "non-green" frac fluids contain mainly what is found in many foods (guar bean), fresh water and what I treat my newborn's dry skin with. Not that I have tried drinking DD's baby oil or anything on a wellsite that wasn't labeled evian.

nat gas is plentiful in our country. I worked on a project in west africa where they were planning on shipping over 1 BCF/d in natural gas to the US, but they will be shipping to other markets in western europe. Also, the liquids from natural gas (either associated or processed) tend not to be used for gasoline. Countries such as Japan, which use nat gas pretty well, still have gasoline fuel a good majority of their vehicles. I'm not sure if natural gas will have a large impact on gasoline prices. Technically, it can be used to fuel vehicles, it's the infrastructure that will difficult to implement. my 2 cents.

Of course, I still haven't filled up with gas in 2012! Our budget, fortunately, isn't very sensitive to the gasoline price, mainly because I ride a bicycle everywhere (ironic for a guy who drills, completes and produces oil & gas wells for a living). DW and I have been wanting a truck, maybe we'll have some one pay us to haul their's away once we get over that $4 mark.
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Old 02-18-2012, 11:42 PM   #44
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DW and I have been wanting a truck, maybe we'll have some one pay us to haul their's away once we get over that $4 mark.
And then you can convert it to run on natural gas...
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Old 02-19-2012, 03:47 AM   #45
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Count me in as one more who thinks gas is way too cheap.

And I don't see why $6/gallon would really cause any change...

I mean, I see people every day driving with one passenger and no freight in giant SUV's and trucks 75mph down the freeway, accelerating and braking hard, getting what must be somewhere between 6-10 mpg. Whereas I go a steady pace in the right hand lane doing 55-60mph in my 33mpg sedan. Which means, they are essentially using 5 and a half times as much fuel as I am to accomplish the same task, getting from point A to point B.

Which apparently means the price of gas could go up 5.5 times, and they could still afford to drive around as much as they do now, they'd just have to trade in their vehicle for a sedan.

So that means the price of gas could go up to $3.50 * 5.5 = $19.25/gallon and they could still afford to drive around just as much as they do now, just in a different vehicle.

So why would $6/gallon gas do anything?
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Old 02-19-2012, 06:51 AM   #46
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Also, a halliburton exec recently drank a glass of their new clean frac fluids. And of course, the main "non-green" frac fluids contain mainly what is found in many foods (guar bean), fresh water and what I treat my newborn's dry skin with. Not that I have tried drinking DD's baby oil or anything on a wellsite that wasn't labeled evian.
It is not what they use to frac that people say is the problem, but that after fracing what used to be separate from the water is not anymore... ie, gas, oil etc. is now leaching into the water supply... so a stunt by the Halliburton exec means nothing to me.... just a stupid trick...
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Old 02-19-2012, 07:44 AM   #47
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Since I retired, I only fill up my primary vehicle once a month, on average.

So for me, cost is not a big factor.

Being that/DW lived through two gas shortages (1973, 1979 as I remember), sitting in line (if there was one, since a lot of stations were out), getting just a few gallons rather than a fill-up, and only on alternate days (depending on tag) was something I certainly would not want nor wish happen to today's commuters.

High gas prices are one thing; lack of product is worse, IMHO.
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Old 02-19-2012, 08:10 AM   #48
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Fixed!
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Old 02-19-2012, 08:20 AM   #49
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High gas prices hurt the economy because they push up the prices of products that need to be transported and everything in one way or another needs to be shipped, plus all the high price of gas does is take the money out of the economy and put it in the hands of people who speculate on gas and push the price upwards. the price of gas is not relevant to cost of production or transport it is due to speculation.
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Old 02-19-2012, 09:28 AM   #50
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What we need is a fast jump in prices to get people to drive less. Otherwise they just get used to it.

People have gotten used to ridiculous traffic jams. If you live in the boonies for a while and then go back to a population center, you think "WTF, people do this every day? It's not possible.". Too many people.
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Old 02-19-2012, 09:34 AM   #51
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Too many people.
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What we need is...
...a visit from these guys:
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Old 02-19-2012, 09:49 AM   #52
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What we need is a fast jump in prices to get people to drive less. Otherwise they just get used to it.

People have gotten used to ridiculous traffic jams. If you live in the boonies for a while and then go back to a population center, you think "WTF, people do this every day? It's not possible.". Too many people.
+1. I live in the ex-burbs and have mostly light traffic anyway, but mitigate that with my retiree driving schedule. Urban traffic is insane.
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Old 02-19-2012, 11:10 AM   #53
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We have already seen back in the summer of 2008 the effect of a sharp increase in gas prices. Sales of SUVs and other gas-guzzlers dropped which made driving around a little easier for a few months.

But Rescueme raised another good point. Sharp increases in the price of gas do not compare to the shortages back in the 1970s which resulted in gas lines. Having to wait 30-60 minutes on line to buy gas (whose price was already rising quickly in that decade) was a much bigger hardship and far more disruptive to everyday life than just paying more for plentiful gas today.

I buy gas every 3-4 weeks and from my local gas station who already charges more than $4 a gallon (he is my mechanic, and lets me get free air from his non-free pump which offsets the gas price). I drive very little in my car which gets about 27 mpg so even a $1 per-gallon increase would cost me maybe $10 a month, nothing for me to get excited about.
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Old 02-19-2012, 11:29 AM   #54
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...to get people to drive less.
IOW, retire?
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Old 02-19-2012, 11:41 AM   #55
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What we need is a fast jump in prices to get people to drive less. Otherwise they just get used to it.

People have gotten used to ridiculous traffic jams. If you live in the boonies for a while and then go back to a population center, you think "WTF, people do this every day? It's not possible.". Too many people.
The worst traffic I ever see is in rapidly growing semi-rural trading centers. I took a buddy who has a disability and can't drive up Mt Vernon. Ye gods, College Way is almost impassable. When I visit my GF on Friday afternoon I have an easy light traffic drive to the Freeway, where northbound traffic may be heavy or light but always moving. Then I exit onto the mess that runs along the north of a regional shopping center. Sometimes I just prefer to take a bus, even though the trip home will take me a while and I'll have to stand at less than lovely spots either in the U District or Downtown.

My visually disabled friend has a steady GF from Skagit County. They visit one another 2x/month-trading who goes and who hosts. She drives when she comes down, and can park in his garage since he has no car. He lives just off Broodway and she considers their weekends together a chance to broaden her horizons taking in the freakshow on Broadway. He learns about cows and silage and stuff that he never heard of when he goes up there and they visit her family and local friends. He takes the 'Hound and she picks him up and delivers him back on Sunday evening. Then from the Downtown station he can walk up the hill to his building.

To briefly return to topic he says that he never sees the traffic downtown or on Capitol Hill that he experiences up there in Skagit Co.

One exeption in my mind is I-5 south from about Northgate on until you clear at least the airport is a mess at least 12/24 of the available hours. I can't fathom where all the people are coming from or going.

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Old 02-19-2012, 11:47 AM   #56
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... you think "WTF, people do this every day? It's not possible.". Too many people.
I feel like that whenever I'm accidentally on the road during rush hour.

I'm contemplating cutting back on some activities that would involve risking rush hours.

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(he is my mechanic, and lets me get free air from his non-free pump which offsets the gas price).
Free air offsets the gas price? How much air does your car use?!? Or how little gas does it use?
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Old 02-19-2012, 11:54 AM   #57
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I use the air pump every other visit which is about once every 6-7 weeks. Usually one or two tires need some air. The pump costs 75 cents so if he is charging 7-8 cents per gallon more than other stations (none of which are as conveniently located as his), then the breakeven point is 10 gallons which is about what I buy per visit. So the free air offsets half the overall cost (not the total cost, if I implied that).
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Old 02-19-2012, 12:01 PM   #58
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Every time I hear of skyrocketing gas prices, I can't help but search about gas efficient cars. The latest one I have an interest in is the new Toyota Prius C.

2012 Toyota Prius C [w/video]

Not that I'm about to buy yet, but it doesn't hurt to stay informed.
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Old 02-19-2012, 12:11 PM   #59
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I use the air pump every other visit which is about once every 6-7 weeks. Usually one or two tires need some air. The pump costs 75 cents so if he is charging 7-8 cents per gallon more than other stations (none of which are as conveniently located as his), then the breakeven point is 10 gallons which is about what I buy per visit. So the free air offsets half the overall cost (not the total cost, if I implied that).
I prefer to just top off the air with a portable inflator.

The one I use is a Craftsman which is both cordless (don't like having to use the 12V cords) and easy to handle. The chuck on my inflator actually broke, but I fixed it a few months ago and now works even better.
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Old 02-19-2012, 12:53 PM   #60
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Count me in as one more who thinks gas is way too cheap.

And I don't see why $6/gallon would really cause any change...
It is pretty well established that at a certain gasoline price threshold the US economy struggles at best. All the allegedly smarter European governments with very hefty gaoline taxes are much more geographically compact than the US, and have well established public transportation. In our country, when gasoline costs go up, so do welfare, food stamp and unemployment costs. The working poor are most damaged, as mom and dad need to get to a job that is often far off, sometimes with split shifts, in old cars.

The well to do who are still working mostly have newer cars, live near work and services, and really don't notice gasoline price changes other than as a topic of conversation.

The welfare poor have nowhere they have to go. The government services they use migrate to their neighborhoods.

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