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Old 02-22-2012, 03:51 PM   #141
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I like the idea of living in cities or with easy access to cities but there are already burbs which are at the terminus of subway or rail lines into big cities where prices are already high.

So the market has already figured it out.
If the neighborhoods accessible by RT are not horrible, they will experience price markups as soon as the coming of rail is definite. The only exception I know of, and sooner or later it will be fixed, is stops along Link light rail in the Seattle area south through the Rainier Valley. It is ugly, and by Seattle standards it is dangerous. But it is happening. You should see all the young mothers pushing strollers in Columbia City, which seems to be accepted faster than other Rainier Vally locations. Once a light rail link to Bellevue/Redmond is established, the Rainer Valley will bloom. Unfortunately, that is along way off, too long for me to try to speculate on. Once these migrations are well established, they are hard to stop. In Cincinnati the area north of the courthouse is called Over the Rhine, after the early German settlements there. It has been a rough neighborhood since WW2. Maybe 10 years or so ago or a little more Grammer's German Restaurant closed dues to neighborhood violence and robberies.It first opened in the 19th century and had operated continuously except for some years during WW1 when there were very strong anti-German feelings. Then in 2001 Over the Rhine experienced days of violent rioting. Did that stop ongoing gentrification? No way; last year OTR was voted Cincinnati's Best Neighborhood! "Over-the-Rhine was voted best Cincinnati neighborhood in CityBeat's Best of Cincinnati 2011."


Gentrification in the 21st century is manifest destiny; it can only be delayed, not stopped, by anything other than a future of cheap fuel which is not going to happen.

Years ago I debated the crude price question with people on this board who thought high prices were speculation only, or oil company manipulation, or due to other ideas that turned out to be wrong. Short term, anything can happen. Long term, it's like glacial melting. If it's getting warmer, glaciers will melt. And if people with money and ability want to live centrally, sooner or later they will. It takes a while for attitudes to adjust and for formerly scary ideas to first become accepted and then become fashionable. That is why first movers into these situations tend to be young unmarried people, gays, artists and others who often do not have wives or children to consider and perhaps to contend with.

Not long after it will be raining those high tech $1000 strollers, and thin young women in runing shoes and spandex pushing them. And dive bars will have been replaced by Pilates Studios.

Ha
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Old 02-22-2012, 04:52 PM   #142
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Originally Posted by haha
If the neighborhoods accessible by RT are not horrible, they will experience price markups as soon as the coming of rail is definite. The only exception I know of, and sooner or later it will be fixed, is stops along Link light rail in the Seattle area south through the Rainier Valley. It is ugly, and by Seattle standards it is dangerous. But it is happening. You should see all the young mothers pushing strollers in Columbia City, which seems to be accepted faster than other Rainier Vally locations. Once a light rail link to Bellevue/Redmond is established, the Rainer Valley will bloom. Unfortunately, that is along way off, too long for me to try to speculate on. Once these migrations are well established, they are hard to stop. In Cincinnati the area north of the courthouse is called Over the Rhine, after the early German settlements there. It has been a rough neighborhood since WW2. Maybe 10 years or so or a little more Grammer's German Restaurant closed, because there was so much street violence that patrons were afraid to come and because they had been robbed a few times. Then in 2001 Over the Rhine experienced days of violent rioting. Did that stop ongoing gentrification? No way; last year OTR was voted Cincinnati's Best Neighborhood! "Over-the-Rhine was voted best Cincinnati neighborhood in CityBeat's Best of Cincinnati 2011."

Gentrification in the 21st century is manifest destiny; it can only be delayed, not stopped, by anything other than a future of cheap fuel which is not going to happen.

Years ago I debated the crude price question with people on this board who thought high prices were speculation only, or oil company manipulation, or due to other ideas that turned out to be wrong. Short term, anything can happen. Long term, it's like glacial melting. If it's getting warmer, glaciers will melt. And if people with money and ability want to live centrally, sooner or later they will. It takes a while for attitudes to adjust and for formerly scary ideas to first become accepted and then become fashionable. That is why first movers into these situations tend to be young unmarried people, gays, artists and others who often do not have wives or children to consider and perhaps to contend with.

Not long after it will be raining those high tech $1000 strollers, and thin young women in runing shoes and spandex pushing them. And dive bars will have been replaced by Pilates Studios.

Ha
Ha, I believe your thesis overall, to be very sound. The two ton elephant in the room, however is,( especially many midwest cities) trying to repopulate the inner city with their current school systems. Some are just hideous and somewhat dangerous, thus making the young couples you referred to as having to make the decision to " buck up" for expensive private schools or move toward the 'burbs. Many cities see young people flock to downtown, only to leave when nesting time occurs.
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Old 02-22-2012, 05:07 PM   #143
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Ha, I believe your thesis overall, to be very sound. The two ton elephant in the room, however is,( especially many midwest cities) trying to repopulate the inner city with their current school systems. Some are just hideous and somewhat dangerous, thus making the young couples you referred to as having to make the decision to " buck up" for expensive private schools or move toward the 'burbs. Many cities see young people flock to downtown, only to leave when nesting time occurs.
That has been true for sure. There is a flowering of private schools right in my neighborhood. You should see the trains of SUVs picking up the kiddies in the afternoon. Also Catholic schools are thriving, even as the parishes may struggle.

As I see it, the US can committ mass suicide if it persists as before in a rapidly changing world. Alternatively it can put some things back on the table that have long been PCd away.

I have heard at parties and such with younger people that some of the grade schools have newly active PTAs and parents' groups who are highly involved and working hard to change public schools wherever it is important to them.
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Old 02-22-2012, 08:59 PM   #144
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Isn't the Tesla suppose to have 200 mile range? Even if that number is hyped, it's gotta be more than enough for most everyday driving?

Of course, it's stupidly expensive as all EVs are.
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Old 02-22-2012, 09:47 PM   #145
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Isn't the Tesla suppose to have 200 mile range? Even if that number is hyped, it's gotta be more than enough for most everyday driving?

Of course, it's stupidly expensive as all EVs are.
I think the 200 mile range claimed is possible. Several years ago I saw a Tesla at the Portland auto show. It was privately owned and the owner drove it from Seattle to Portland for the show (about 180 miles). I thought that was impressive although the price of the car was way outta range.
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Old 02-22-2012, 10:26 PM   #146
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Yeah...I think if you can afford a Telsa, than you don't need to save $ on gas.
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Old 02-22-2012, 10:32 PM   #147
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It's for rich greensters.
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Old 02-22-2012, 11:02 PM   #148
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Isn't the Tesla suppose to have 200 mile range? Even if that number is hyped, it's gotta be more than enough for most everyday driving?
Of course, it's stupidly expensive as all EVs are.
Buying a Tesla to be green is like buying a Hummer because you might occasionally go off-road driving.

I'm sure people thought Ford was nuts for coming out with his gas engines at a time when electric vehicles were cheap & plentiful, and nobody wanted to buy such a stinky machine. Until, that is, volume production could undercut the competition. EVs will get there the same way every other consumer product has.

The expense calculations work out a lot better when you're driving less than 80 miles/day, or when you have a charging station at your destination... and when you have a photovoltaic array on your house. So "stupidly expensive" might be a slight generalization. When Leafs & Volts start showing up on Craigslist at about 50% of retail, then we'll be more interested. Not so much for a Tesla.
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Old 02-22-2012, 11:03 PM   #149
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The Tesla roadster has a maximum range of 240.
And yes, it is very expensive, you need to be very fortunate, and dedicated to afford one. Although the cost is as much due to the performance of the car as the fact it is an EV.
As for EV costs, the Leaf is 24k (after rebate), 80 mile range.
The Volt (semi EV), leases for ~250/month.

The Model S is starting at 50k (160 mile range). It is competing with other luxury sedans and stacks up pretty well if you ask me.

While a Mercedes competing car is not going to single handedly solve our gasoline issue, it will be a step in the right direction. And continue showing the other BIG car companies that it is possible.

Hopefully we will get more economical alternative fuel cars (natural gas, EVs, etc) such that our economy will be less directly affected by gas prices. Although, obviously we will still have the indirect cost increases of everything shipped by diesel truck. So we won't completely eliminate damage to our economy, just lessen the impact.
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Old 02-23-2012, 12:13 AM   #150
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From what I understand, if you wanted a gas-powered high-end sports car that had the same performance as a Tesla, you'd be paying about the same price.

Not that I'm too well versed on $100k cars.
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Old 02-23-2012, 07:09 AM   #151
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Did anyone see ABC's World News last night? They had a piece on the price of gas in California and during the two minute segment they had a gas station behind the reporter and the price increase by $.10.

Price Shock: Watch Cost of Gas Jump 10 Cents During ABC’s ‘World News’ Broadcast - ABC News
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Old 02-23-2012, 08:49 AM   #152
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It's for rich greensters.
aka, the "eco-chic" like green celebrities...
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Old 02-23-2012, 09:21 AM   #153
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Did anyone see ABC's World News last night? They had a piece on the price of gas in California and during the two minute segment they had a gas station behind the reporter and the price increase by $.10.

Price Shock: Watch Cost of Gas Jump 10 Cents During ABC’s ‘World News’ Broadcast - ABC News
Watch for $26,280.00/gallon gas by next year.

But seriously, the news people have to be stupid to think that that change means anything more than they happened to be there when some model told the computer to change the price.
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Old 02-23-2012, 09:29 AM   #154
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It's for rich greensters.
Rich faux-greensters (or 'hobbyists'). Unfortunately, in most of the country an EV is essentially coal powered. One of the un-greenest forms of energy we have.

Scientific American reported a study that showed for most of the country, an EV had higher CO than a high mpg (non-plug-in) hybrid. Sure, you can pick apart and debate the particulars and assumptions of the study, but it seems clear than an EV isn't giving any great advantage in pollution, even with generous assumptions.

Yet, they are allowed to market them as a "Zero-Emissions Vehicle" arggghhhh! Oh, we forgot the fine-print "no tailpipe pollutants". I guess it's OK for those Rich Cats and hobbyists to move the pollution to those poor people that live near the coal plant. Maybe the poor, polluted people are 'green' with envy? Does that make it 'green'?

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Old 02-23-2012, 11:07 AM   #155
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Rich faux-greensters (or 'hobbyists'). Unfortunately, in most of the country an EV is essentially coal powered. One of the un-greenest forms of energy we have.

Scientific American reported a study that showed for most of the country, an EV had higher CO than a high mpg (non-plug-in) hybrid. Sure, you can pick apart and debate the particulars and assumptions of the study, but it seems clear than an EV isn't giving any great advantage in pollution, even with generous assumptions.

Yet, they are allowed to market them as a "Zero-Emissions Vehicle" arggghhhh! Oh, we forgot the fine-print "no tailpipe pollutants". I guess it's OK for those Rich Cats and hobbyists to move the pollution to those poor people that live near the coal plant. Maybe the poor, polluted people are 'green' with envy? Does that make it 'green'?

-ERD50
Since we spend most of the summer at "orange" level pollution, reduced tailpipe emissions are not necessarily a bad thing.

As for moving the pollution, there's plenty to go around...
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Old 02-23-2012, 11:12 AM   #156
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I think you would need pretty crazy assumptions to get to higher emissions from EV's than gas vehicles. All of the studies that I have seen have shown a sizable advantage in emissions for EV vehicles.

Coal may be dirty, but producing electricity in a power plant is a lot more efficient than an internal combustion engine. Our newer oil supplies are coming more and more from shale oil, which is energy intensive to extract. Converting oil into gasoline is a pretty energy intensive process as well.

Note also that the US grid as a whole is now less than half coal powered and dropping. With natural gas prices where they are at, I would expect new coal plants to be extremely rare . Most of our coal plants are baseline power. Any incremental increase in electricity use caused by EV's is less likely to be coal-powered.


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Rich faux-greensters (or 'hobbyists'). Unfortunately, in most of the country an EV is essentially coal powered. One of the un-greenest forms of energy we have.

Scientific American reported a study that showed for most of the country, an EV had higher CO than a high mpg (non-plug-in) hybrid. Sure, you can pick apart and debate the particulars and assumptions of the study, but it seems clear than an EV isn't giving any great advantage in pollution, even with generous assumptions.
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Old 02-23-2012, 11:34 AM   #157
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I think you would need pretty crazy assumptions to get to higher emissions from EV's than gas vehicles. All of the studies that I have seen have shown a sizable advantage in emissions for EV vehicles.
Might be nice if you provided some sources/links...took me less than a minute to find several.
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Old 02-23-2012, 11:35 AM   #158
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It's for rich greensters.
Or people who REALLY like insane performance. I got a chance to try one on a track day. Insane bottom end torque, like a dragster, with great handling and performance right up to the top. All without a clutch or shift in sight. It's an electric dragster dressed as a Lotus.
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Old 02-23-2012, 12:27 PM   #159
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Rich faux-greensters (or 'hobbyists'). Unfortunately, in most of the country an EV is essentially coal powered. One of the un-greenest forms of energy we have.

Scientific American reported a study that showed for most of the country, an EV had higher CO than a high mpg (non-plug-in) hybrid. Sure, you can pick apart and debate the particulars and assumptions of the study, but it seems clear than an EV isn't giving any great advantage in pollution, even with generous assumptions...
-ERD50
Why do you stereotype and insult a large group of people based on incomplete information?

First, not everyone who buys a Tesla is doing so for environmental reasons. Some love the performance, many love the technology.
Some like reducing our dependance on oil. Many want to encourage continued research and advances in the EV market.

Second, you use a national average and then apply it to Roadster owners? Are they distributed evenly throughout the US? As I recall, there are about a third outside of the USA, why apply an average of the US electrical grid to overseas owners?
I suspect the highest concentration of Roadster owners are in CA, which has a much cleaner grid.

For those Tesla owners for which the environment IS a high priority, I suspect many have solar or wind power to offset (at a minimum) the power requirements of their ride.

Third, the study is using a Prius level of mpg. Those that didn't buy a Tesla for environmental reasons most likely didn't replace a Prius with the Roadster. More likely they bought it instead of some other 0-60 in 3.9s performance vehicle. I would be willing to bet those tend to get 15-20 mpg (or less) rather than the 50mpg of the Prius.
Those that did, again, most likely live with a cleaner grid than US average, or have solar/wind to offset.

Please note, I am not saying there isn't ANYONE who is a, in your terms, faux-greenster that bought one to show off (I am sure there are one or two). But your wide brush is insulting.
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Old 02-23-2012, 12:44 PM   #160
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Your chart shows a decent current advantage to EV's (49% to 56%, ie the EV has 12.5% lower emissions than a full hybrid currently).

It also shows a massive advantage down the road as we reduce our coal power plant usage.



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Might be nice if you provided some sources/links...took me less than a minute to find several.
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