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View Poll Results: Estimated Gasoline Prices over Next 5-10 years
$2 - $3 1 1.00%
$3 - $4 13 13.00%
$4 - $5 30 30.00%
$5 - $6 24 24.00%
$6 - $7 12 12.00%
More than $7 11 11.00%
I don't spend enough on gas to think about this. 9 9.00%
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Gasoline Prices
Old 03-15-2011, 02:09 PM   #1
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Gasoline Prices

I've been spending $50 at a time to fill my gas tank. That's a "big" number to me. If I were buying a new car today, I'd want to think about the likely average price of gasoline over the next 5-10 years.

What's your estimate? (per gallon, for whatever grade you normally buy)
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Old 03-15-2011, 02:27 PM   #2
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I think the pirce of a gallon of gas should be 3% of the price of a barrle of oil.

For instance, when we hit $140 a barrel, gas was pretty much avergae of $4.20 a gallon. Now that oil is $100 a barrel, gas should be $3.00.

But that's my theory, no math behind it. It does NOT explain the jacking up of gas prices around Memorial Day or 4th of July............
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Old 03-15-2011, 02:55 PM   #3
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Short term demand, large scale demand and supply all affect the price.
In the last 10 years, the average has roughly doubled. I would roughly guess that will happen again over the next 10 years.
Of course, much of the oil we are finding now is more expensive to get out of the ground and/or refine.
Add to that increasing world demand as China and India buy more and more cars. Well, the doubling in 10 years may be vastly understated.
I plan on not using gasoline if at all possible. Sure, I will still face increased cost in any product that is transported via oil, food (oil based fertilizer), etc. But at least I can eliminate the volatility of gasoline prices.
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Old 03-15-2011, 04:13 PM   #4
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But that's my theory, no math behind it. It does NOT explain the jacking up of gas prices around Memorial Day or 4th of July...........
Here's some help with the maths.

Crack Spread Calculations Demystified - Seeking Alpha

A Primer On Gasoline Prices

The summer changes? All gasoline is not refined the same, and a single gasoline formulation for the entire country year-round would not work well. The refiners have to change the volatility to make sure the gasoline will burn properly. They've always done that, but I think the govt got involved at some point with the natural result being that it has some glitches. Whatever the cause, at season changes (and more so in certain parts of the country) the refineries have to change the gasoline to a different formula and that means production is reduced temporarily.
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Old 03-15-2011, 06:18 PM   #5
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I voted for the "I don't spend enough on gas to think about this", but really it was thinking about higher coming prices my whole life that set me up to not spend much on it. Originally my concern was evironmental, then it became logic and common sense that led me to bike, walk, take public transportation, and eventually retire early.
Things just seem to get better for me when gas prices rise. It's easier to park at the store, not many cars on the road locally making walking and biking nicer, no traffic on the freeways, the local air gets cleaner...and maybe this year it'll make its way into the CPI so I can get a nice raise. $5 a gallon...yeeehaaa
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Old 03-15-2011, 06:44 PM   #6
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$20 A Gallon by Christopher Steiner paints a picture on how our lives will change with higher gas prices in our future. It is not all bad news. Be prepared.
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Old 03-15-2011, 06:55 PM   #7
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The perfect opportunity for people to get rid of their cars and buy scooters and motorcycles and get those cool little diesels from Europe over here. 40-80+ MPG sure beats out 15-35.

I'd say it's going to go up between $4-5 for a total average for all States, but toward the end of the next ten year period. Here right now, it's already over $4, or was last time I checked. But it bounces between low $3 in the cooler months and jumps up to close to or slightly over $4 in the summer, and it's been doing that consistently for the last 4 or so years.

When prices jumped to over $2 a gallon, I was surprised people were still buying so many trucks and SUVs. Then at $4 a gallon here in about 2007, and people were still buying them up. Even now, it seems that rising gas prices aren't stopping many people for buying. Last report I read, sales of trucks and SUVs this year are up.

At $4/gallon a vehicle getting 18 MPG is paying about $0.22 a mile. That's about 4.5 miles to a dollar. If you bump that up to 20 MPG, it's $0.16/mile. 30 MPG at about $0.13, or a little over 7.6 miles to a dollar. Up to 40 MPG, it's $0.10, or a full 10 miles to a dollar. Unless you live really close to where you work or take the kids to school or wherever, or do your shopping, or rarely have to drive, that $0.10-20/mile difference can add up to hundreds or thousands of dollars a year extra in gas.

If the push for hydrogen and electric cars catches hold, it'll be interesting in a decade or to to see how much higher electricity costs are going to be (and how they're going to try to build the power plants required if Japan's nuclear accidents put nuclear power on the back burner again). I'd rather pay $4-5/gallon than rely on the level of technology batteries are at right now.
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Old 03-15-2011, 07:12 PM   #8
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Higher gas prices kill us out state people, who have to drive to get anything. Not an anti-environmental guy, but maybe I watch too much Fox news (or is it Faux news for the non-believers). Until scientists can explain why they can go from this end
Another Ice Age? - TIME
to the extreme other end in just 30 years, I say lets start drilling for more oil!
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Old 03-15-2011, 07:20 PM   #9
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Yes, I get all my reliable science from Time and Fox:P
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Old 03-15-2011, 07:40 PM   #10
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Yes, I get all my reliable science from Time and Fox:P
The Fox part I'll give you! But actually, Time wasn't the only one. Newsweek ran articles amongst others. I remember us studying the coming ice age in school, too. The ironic part, is some of the reasons they were suspecting that was causing the coming ice age are the same reasons being used as the reason for global warming. I'm no expert and I'm certain I definitely dont know what I'm talking about, but I do find that to be interesting none the less.
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Old 03-15-2011, 11:54 PM   #11
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I don't want to turn this into a crazy environmental discussion, but I read we just passed a great milestone. There have been more than 20,000,000 man made chemicals released into the environment. Who knows what the heck that will do. There's just no "good" science on that...FOX or otherwise.
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voted $5-6
Old 03-16-2011, 07:31 AM   #12
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voted $5-6

The market has already trialed ~$4.50/gal a few years ago, as I recall it had some dampening effect on travel (use) but profit was very good. Based on that, I think that's about the upper limit today that would be tolerable to general public without huge hit on economy, add inflation in 5 -10 years and the concern of peak oil anytime and $5 -6/gallon would be "reasonable"
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Old 03-16-2011, 07:46 AM   #13
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Personally, I will be just waiting for the next big gas price spike to buy a nice truck at a cheap price.
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Old 03-16-2011, 08:05 AM   #14
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The market has already trialed ~$4.50/gal a few years ago, as I recall it had some dampening effect on travel (use) but profit was very good. Based on that, I think that's about the upper limit today that would be tolerable to general public without huge hit on economy, add inflation in 5 -10 years and the concern of peak oil anytime and $5 -6/gallon would be "reasonable"
That seems to be the pattern at many price points.
First time we hit $3, as I recall, there was a pull-back in demand. But then we, as a society, seem to be less affected by it the second or third time we hit it. Until we just take it as a matter of course. The 'shock value' bar is reset to a higher price point.

Add to that, China and India's demand is growing larger. As that happens, a cut back in US demand will have less and less of a mitigating factor on prices.

Mulligan, I would love to discuss the topic you raise, but don't want to derail the thread.
If you truly do want an answer to your question, here is some information which should help:
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php...-cooling-mole/
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Old 03-16-2011, 08:10 AM   #15
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Personally, I will be just waiting for the next big gas price spike to buy a nice truck at a cheap price.
Having just purchased a new truck last week, I also thought the recent run-up in oil prices would have me in the cat-bird seat when it came to buying a gas diesel-hog. I did get a decent deal (18% off sticker price) but it wasn't as good as I had expected.

Apparently the manufacturers are carefully structuring their production output to meet 2011 CAFE standards (currently under challenge in the courts), producing more high-mileage vehicles and fewer trucks. At least that's the impression I got after discovering the selection of new trucks I had to choose from on dealer lots was very limited - and this is TX! Many dealers only had a couple of diesel trucks in their inventory and I found only one within a 200 mile radius equipped the way I wanted it. I don't know if that is the case for gas powered trucks but I wouldn't be surprised to find fewer of those as well.
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Old 03-16-2011, 08:31 AM   #16
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When gasoline costs $3, about 2/3 is the cost of crude, the rest is refining, distribution, taxes, profit. For gasoline to reach $5 the price of crude needs to double. When crude moves from $90 to $180, the world falls into recession. The price may hit $5, but looks unlikely to stay there.

If this does happen I imagine there will be lots of buying opportunities as a result. Trucks, cars, SUVs - even stocks.
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Old 03-16-2011, 09:57 AM   #17
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I am convinced if the USA started drilling in Alaska and drilling more In North Dakota, the price of a barrel would drop $20-$25 a barrel within a week...........
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Old 03-16-2011, 10:01 AM   #18
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Higher gas prices kill us out state people, who have to drive to get anything. ... I say lets start drilling for more oil!
I live in Iowa so I also drive everywhere. But I'm not expecting US drilling to make a big difference. Just looking at Wikipedia this morning, it appears the world uses 32 billion barrels of oil per year, while the US has 21 billion barrels of proven reserve. There's a lot more oil that's not "proven reserve", but it gets increasingly expensive to extract (most is under the outer continental shelf). The best guess is 134 billion barrels if we could get it all.

Trying to estimate future prices, I'd assume some additional drilling, but it's a result of price increases, not something that will prevent price increases.
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Old 03-16-2011, 10:16 AM   #19
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Yes, I get all my reliable science from Time and Fox:P
Excellent! Rachel Maddow is my go-to girl.
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Old 03-16-2011, 10:47 AM   #20
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I work in bio remediation....you cannot believe the crap that is in our soil and groundwater.

A slow move from fossil fuels, and all the garbage we add to them in the refinement and productizing, is a must.

Solar panels on your roof + elec car and moto = solution and the future

I'm tired of foreign wars and protecting "interests", which a majority of, are tied to the oil lobby.
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