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Old 03-18-2015, 07:13 AM   #41
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Goldman Sachs now says that we will have EUR:USD parity this summer, and that the EUR will continue to fall in value until the end of 2016.
Goldman Sachs euro parity forecast - Business Insider
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Old 03-18-2015, 10:04 AM   #42
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Goldman Sachs now says that we will have EUR:USD parity this summer, and that the EUR will continue to fall in value until the end of 2016.
Goldman Sachs euro parity forecast - Business Insider
Wow, my €50 taxi ride keeps getting cheaper and cheaper!
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Old 03-18-2015, 10:56 AM   #43
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Wow, my €50 taxi ride keeps getting cheaper and cheaper!
OT Got me thinking.....can't even remember the last time I took a cab. /OT
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Old 03-18-2015, 01:38 PM   #44
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OT Got me thinking.....can't even remember the last time I took a cab. /OT
When your 82 year old Dad can't really walk more than a 10th of a mile without needing a rest, you take cabs a lot in Amsterdam!
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Old 03-18-2015, 01:46 PM   #45
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The most fun is when the credit card bills from the vacation arrive and the charges are much less than you expected because the dollar grew stronger before the charges were applied and converted. Almost offsets coming home and not being on vacation anymore.

You European vacationers will really enjoy your upcoming trips!
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Old 03-18-2015, 02:17 PM   #46
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AAA also can provide foreign currency if you are a member. I know they do Canadian money; pretty sure they do Euros too.


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We just returned from a 2 week European adventure, and AAA offered a better exchange rate than my bank (of course we went to AAA for something else right after the bank trip )

I second the advice on getting a few euros to have on hand before you leave.
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Old 03-18-2015, 02:19 PM   #47
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When your 82 year old Dad can't really walk more than a 10th of a mile without needing a rest, you take cabs a lot in Amsterdam!
No, no..it wasn't a snipe at you (or anyone)...it's just that I got to thinking that it must be decades since I took a cab......last time, IIRC, was from the airport in Riyadh to our compound (because we landed too late to ask someone to pick us up).
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Old 03-18-2015, 04:35 PM   #48
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Goldman Sachs now says that we will have EUR:USD parity this summer, and that the EUR will continue to fall in value until the end of 2016.
I'm glad someone is confident. It's not me, though!
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The dollar tumbled toward its biggest one-day decline against the euro since March 2009 on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve scuttled some investors’ expectations for rising U.S. interest rates.
U.S. Dollar Tumbles After Fed Statement - WSJ
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Old 03-18-2015, 04:58 PM   #49
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Well, the exchange rate moved from a low of 1.05 US/Eur a couple of days ago to 1.085 today with the Fed's statement. People who are going to spend $10K on their trip have just lost US$333. That's 6 long taxi rides.

Better buy your FXE now to lock in what you can.
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Old 03-18-2015, 06:34 PM   #50
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No, no..it wasn't a snipe at you (or anyone)...it's just that I got to thinking that it must be decades since I took a cab......last time, IIRC, was from the airport in Riyadh to our compound (because we landed too late to ask someone to pick us up).
I actually rather enjoyed it. The cabs in Amsterdam were very nice. €10 here, €10 there, but we got to take Dad a few special places and overall budget wise it wasn't bad! Come to think of it - there were usually four of us in the cab, it suddenly is a lot more economical.

For comparison, €10 each will get DH and me riding the Amsterdam trams/buses a couple of trips a day for 3 or 4 days.
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Old 03-18-2015, 06:36 PM   #51
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Well, the exchange rate moved from a low of 1.05 US/Eur a couple of days ago to 1.085 today with the Fed's statement. People who are going to spend $10K on their trip have just lost US$333. That's 6 long taxi rides.

Better buy your FXE now to lock in what you can.
Not too worried. I booked a train ticket yesterday, and will book a few more tomorrow. It's so far down from where it was a few weeks ago that it is still good.

A big chunk of that $10K trip is the airfare, still denominated in USD.
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Old 03-19-2015, 09:16 AM   #52
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Well, the exchange rate moved from a low of 1.05 US/Eur a couple of days ago to 1.085 today with the Fed's statement. People who are going to spend $10K on their trip have just lost US$333. That's 6 long taxi rides.

Better buy your FXE now to lock in what you can.
Looks like it was a one day wonder! And the VISA exchange rate for transactions posting today is 1.099! I'm glad I didn't book my train tickets yesterday.

It's already dropped below 1.07 again today.

When I book stuff online in Europe it often takes 2 days for the transactions to post.
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Old 03-19-2015, 09:27 AM   #53
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I'm glad someone is confident. It's not me, though!
The one thing I am fully confident of is that after a sustained move in any direction, the sell-side financial world will then 1) explain why that was logical, obvious and entirely predictable, and 2) project that trend forward indefinitely.

Now that folks like GS are now predicting this, I get the feeling the Euro decline may be nearing an end.
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Old 03-19-2015, 09:52 AM   #54
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People who are going to spend $10K on their trip have just lost US$333.
Just showed DW a link to a European dream trip that would run about $32k all in - itinerary is actually pretty similar to the trip we did in 1992 for about $8k but upscaled a bit to reflect our current tastes and accommodations for that aging thing... still a bit out of reach unless I say to heck with SWR and HI tax credits. USD has been steadily gaining on the GB Pound also, recently ordered parts for my German motorcycle from the UK. got them for little over half of what it costs to buy them through US dealers, shipping included.
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Old 03-19-2015, 10:22 AM   #55
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Just showed DW a link to a European dream trip that would run about $32k all in - itinerary is actually pretty similar to the trip we did in 1992 for about $8k but upscaled a bit to reflect our current tastes and accommodations for that aging thing... still a bit out of reach unless I say to heck with SWR and HI tax credits. USD has been steadily gaining on the GB Pound also, recently ordered parts for my German motorcycle from the UK. got them for little over half of what it costs to buy them through US dealers, shipping included.
$32K? My budget for the 4 of us, including airfare, train, spending, and lodging is $25k. (The falling Euro is helping us.) That's for FOUR people and 9 weeks. It's 11 cities in 7 countries. It helps that the kids are still 14 and under, so the train fares are 1/2 price for some of the trips. (Not on the eurostar, unfortunately). Right now we're tracking on budget... with very nice apartments in good locations. My target budget is $25k - but I fully expect (but am trying to avoid) an overage of about $3k when all is said and done. That's still 4k under your dream trip for 2.
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Old 03-19-2015, 10:52 AM   #56
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$32K? My budget for the 4 of us, including airfare, train, spending, and lodging is $25k. (The falling Euro is helping us.) That's for FOUR people and 9 weeks. It's 11 cities in 7 countries. It helps that the kids are still 14 and under, so the train fares are 1/2 price for some of the trips. (Not on the eurostar, unfortunately). Right now we're tracking on budget... with very nice apartments in good locations. My target budget is $25k - but I fully expect (but am trying to avoid) an overage of about $3k when all is said and done. That's still 4k under your dream trip for 2.
Yeah, that's where the 'dream' thing kind of pops up, as in I wake up and reality hits. Without getting into the specifics, it really is an over the top trip in terms of activities and some awesome luxuries, Living Way Beyond Our Means stuff to the max. Weird thing is I still almost want to do it. We enjoyed the '92 trip so much, we agreed back then that we should repeat every 5 years. Both of us being pretty much LBYM by nature, that didn't happen as we kept our noses to the grindstone and limited our vacations to mostly frugal stateside travel, except for a single all-inclusive escape from bone chilling winter weather. There are similar scaled down trips available that would easily cut 25%-50% from the cost, but considering we're not getting any younger it is still somewhat tempting and would definitely be a once in a lifetime thing, i.e. buying an experience rather than a thing. But it is pretty much an impossibility to pry that much money from my paws, more likely that proceeds from our future estate will fund someone else's experiences instead
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Old 03-19-2015, 11:06 AM   #57
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It does look like the US dollar is regaining strength against nearly all other currencies, not just the euro but Asian currencies too. And stocks are slipping, except for a couple of sectors. The whole thing may be just a one-day wonder. This led me to say this.

The Oracle of New Orleans is more powerful than the Fed Chairwoman.

About travel expenses, we stayed at nice hotels only back when DW still got good deals from her work. In fact quite a few of our trips were made with her frequent miles; that even included business class (and 1st class once) to places like Australia and New Zealand. Ah, the good ole' days. When these freebies were depleted, we were back to flying coach and staying at Ibis. The fancy hotels, I do not care for as much as the better plane seats.

And people do not think they can spend more money!
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Old 03-19-2015, 02:10 PM   #58
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Yes, the USD is strong against all other currencies as we discovered when we recently ordered some tea from Canada.

We seem to run about $5K per week for the two of us on our Europe trips, including airfare. This upcoming trip may be a little pricier than that as we have booked a tour for part of it, but whatever. Besides, we still have money left over from last year's travel budget.
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Old 03-20-2015, 05:49 AM   #59
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The one thing I am fully confident of is that after a sustained move in any direction, the sell-side financial world will then 1) explain why that was logical, obvious and entirely predictable, and 2) project that trend forward indefinitely.

Now that folks like GS are now predicting this, I get the feeling the Euro decline may be nearing an end.
I'm more and more confused by analysts (usually sell-side indeed) who put their target price always very close to the actual selling price.

Stock goes up, target price goes up. Stock goes down, target price goes down.

Their valuations somehow also end up to be in area of where the stock prices WAS, never where it will be.

And yet, these people stay employed .. curiouser and curiouser ..
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Old 03-20-2015, 06:47 AM   #60
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And yet, these people stay employed .. curiouser and curiouser ..
All tied in with the 'expecteds'....."Unexpected", "Less than expected", and "Greater than expected".
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