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Old 08-02-2011, 10:13 AM   #121
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However, I can't help thinking that the ongoing battle over the debt ceiling offers a unique opportunity to earn some extra trading profits. It's a slam dunk that some time over the next four weeks, the market is going to crash because of the contention in Washington.


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The OP was so sure of his position, but has not posted since July 01, the day he started this thread. Four weeks has passed, where's that 'crash'?

Maybe he's out practicing his hoop shots?

-ERD50
And now that we have something passed, the market is lower than at anytime since July 1!

Slam Dunk indeed!

-ERD50
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Old 08-02-2011, 03:46 PM   #122
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Over the years, I've learned the hard way that it's really hard to time the market. As a result, I do have the discipline to stay put when things start getting volatile.
Thoughts anyone??
This thought is very prevalent among investors and there's a lot of history to back up it's success. I feel it causes a kind of apathy...blind investing...buy and hold...that then puts money/mutual fund managers in the drivers seat. So many of these managers love the technical stuff. Seems we've been trapped in a trading range of 1250-1350 on the S and P. 1254 today, might be a good short term buying opportunity no matter the reality.
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Old 08-02-2011, 04:55 PM   #123
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So what did I finally do? At first I did nothing. But then after stocks ran up so high the week after my original post, I pared back. (I reduced my AA by about 20%) Today, I bought back in. Today might have been too early to get back in, but despite my actions, I really am not a market timer.

The way I see it. If there is a formidable threat to my portfolio in plain sight, I may as well try to avoid it. The downside is that I miss some profit if I'm wrong. The upside is that I might avoid a melt down like in 2008. Like so many others here, I stubbornly rode my portfolio down to the bottom then. I prefer not to take that ride again.

At this point, I'm back to where I started with a few more dollars in my money market account!
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Old 08-02-2011, 05:17 PM   #124
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I got out yesterday and plan to come back in at DOW 9000.
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Old 08-02-2011, 05:21 PM   #125
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I got out yesterday and plan to come back in at DOW 9000.
And if by some twist of fate the Dow doesn't go that low - hey, it could happen - when will you get back in?
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Old 08-02-2011, 05:35 PM   #126
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I have some dry powder to put into the market; will wait for DOW 11,000 to do so. the way it's going, we'll see that level next week.

I intend to buy only commodities and O&G. Those have the best staying power. COP, CVX and STO are in my viewfinder. Single digit P/Es, a nd a definable future for their product. A reasonable dividend helps a lot while waiting for stock price recovery.
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Old 08-02-2011, 05:48 PM   #127
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I adjusted my AA in May (sold some stocks) and felt pleased.

Now the question is will I feel pleased when I buy back in....
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Old 08-02-2011, 07:21 PM   #128
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And if by some twist of fate the Dow doesn't go that low - hey, it could happen - when will you get back in?
Maybe never? I think I could be happy at 100% TIPS even paying the taxes on the inflation portion each year. The stock market is rigged.
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Old 08-02-2011, 08:04 PM   #129
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RE: Getting back in at DOW 9000 (hasn't been that low for 2 years)
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Maybe never? I think I could be happy at 100% TIPS even paying the taxes on the inflation portion each year. The stock market is rigged.
Go short then. You'll be rich in no time!

I've heard far too many times that options are 'rigged' - if you by a call, it will end up OTM by just a smidge time and time again. So I suggest they sell calls instead to get on the wagon with all the fat cats, but I guess they'd rather complain than get rich (which won't happen either).

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Old 08-02-2011, 11:44 PM   #130
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Moved 5% of portfolio from fixed income into S&P 500 index on Friday and again today. Next buy point will be 1225 if that happens. It may go to 1200 or 1150, who knows but it will eventually go back up and it's not like I need that money any time soon. I see it as an opportunity even if it takes a year to pan out.
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Old 08-03-2011, 08:00 AM   #131
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The bigger issue may be that the 'soft economic patch' looks like it is becoming a bog. Europe continues full meltdown with Italy now starting to swoon. It's pretty clear, or should be, that austerity is a failure everywhere it was tried. And we just jumped on that bandwagon, with promises of more to come. Awesome.
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Old 08-03-2011, 08:36 AM   #132
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The bigger issue may be that the 'soft economic patch' looks like it is becoming a bog. Europe continues full meltdown with Italy now starting to swoon. It's pretty clear, or should be, that austerity is a failure everywhere it was tried. And we just jumped on that bandwagon, with promises of more to come. Awesome.
Krugman was right last year when he predicted this.
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Old 08-03-2011, 08:51 AM   #133
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I am buy and hold. If the S and P reaches 1050, i will buy more, otherwise just reinvesting dividends. I really think we are in for a trading range of 900 to 1400 for the next 25 years.
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Old 08-03-2011, 09:10 AM   #134
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I was convinced of a big drop in Q4 2009, and missed out on a bunch of money.

I think this thread shows that it is impossible to make sense of things. conventional wisdom would say that once the debt ceiling was raised and the big borrowing continued, the market would roar back due to the money being injected back in. After all, isn't this exactly what happened when the stimulus bill was passed?

Well surprise! Yesterday the market drops 260+ points. Maybe things will start moving positive today but your guess is as good as mine.
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Old 08-03-2011, 09:22 AM   #135
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I was convinced of a big drop in Q4 2009, and missed out on a bunch of money.

I think this thread shows that it is impossible to make sense of things. conventional wisdom would say that once the debt ceiling was raised and the big borrowing continued, the market would roar back due to the money being injected back in. After all, isn't this exactly what happened when the stimulus bill was passed?

Well surprise! Yesterday the market drops 260+ points. Maybe things will start moving positive today but your guess is as good as mine.
+1. The moves actually make sense. The market would probably have bounced back this week but - surprise - bad economic data derailed that. What is predictable is that surprises like that happen frequently thus timing gets thrown for a loop. I'm sitting tight on my AA which will call for a little equity buying if we go much lower.
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Old 08-04-2011, 11:38 AM   #136
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RE: Getting back in at DOW 9000 (hasn't been that low for 2 years)

Go short then. You'll be rich in no time!

I've heard far too many times that options are 'rigged' - if you by a call, it will end up OTM by just a smidge time and time again. So I suggest they sell calls instead to get on the wagon with all the fat cats, but I guess they'd rather complain than get rich (which won't happen either).

-ERD50
How are those covered calls working out for ya?

Getting closer to my buy in point...only 2600 points to go!
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Old 08-04-2011, 11:47 AM   #137
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How are those covered calls working out for ya?

Getting closer to my buy in point...only 2600 points to go!
Covered calls are working fine, doing just what the contract specifies. When the market drops, you gain the premium. So you're better off than holding stocks w/o the call.

Market goes up and down - what's that got to do with being 'rigged'?

-ERD50
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Old 08-04-2011, 12:37 PM   #138
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Looks like we are headed for pre stimulus territory. S and P in the 700 range. Hold on to your hats!!!
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Old 08-04-2011, 12:48 PM   #139
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Looks like we are headed for pre stimulus territory. S and P in the 700 range. Hold on to your hats!!!
I am kind of worried about all of the pension funds if we get S&P500 in the 700 range again. Aren't most of them heavily invested in the stock market so they can get those guaranteed 8% returns they told the employees?

So even iif I manage to save a good portion of our 401K by market timing, I may end up losing it to taxes when the pensions need bailing out. A lose-lose situation...I am not happy.
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Old 08-04-2011, 12:52 PM   #140
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Looks like we are headed for pre stimulus territory. S and P in the 700 range. Hold on to your hats!!!
Someone needs to start (and manage) a 'guess the bottom' thread...

Me, I don't know where or when we'll hit bottom and don't plan on worrying about it too much - at least not like the last time. My allocation (38% stocks) and cash bucket is much better positioned for a deep and protracted period of 'market unpleasantness' than in 2008. As long as SS checks keep coming and Wellesley keeps paying dividends, I'm good for several years.
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