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Getting brave again - stock picks
Old 12-09-2005, 12:35 PM   #1
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Getting brave again - stock picks

O.K., I've sheltered my speculative/play account money in a Vanguard Value Viper (VTV) for six months now and seen a decent return (thanks th/notth/() ), but I'm starting to get itchy again. I'm on a quest for the next ten bagger, or hundred bagger! Preferably a stock trading above $5, but pretty cheap, beaten up, ready for a big run up . Wildcat? Brewer? I've got $12k burning a hole in my pocket!
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Re: Getting brave again - stock picks
Old 12-09-2005, 12:53 PM   #2
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Re: Getting brave again - stock picks

If you are looking for a speculative bet, I think MFA and ANH are probably my top picks, although I think its a bit early for them. For less risk, but likely attractive returns, I think EGLE and STON are attractively priced (especially the latter).

If you want a REALLY speculative bet, buy a short dated, moderately out of the money call option on PPD. I own a smidgen of February 45s. If they get their bank loan deal done, I think they will use the proceeds to ignite a godawful short squeeze. But it is also entirely possible (likely, even) that the option will expire worthless.
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Re: Getting brave again - stock picks
Old 12-09-2005, 01:55 PM   #3
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Re: Getting brave again - stock picks

Get as itchy as you want, then sit there and do nothing!

And quit complaining before I change my name AGAIN! DONT MAKE ME DO IT!!!
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Re: Getting brave again - stock picks
Old 12-09-2005, 03:29 PM   #4
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Re: Getting brave again - stock picks

Bought a little Stryker (SYK) yesterday. I had some of their hardware used in my leg and they have a following among BetterInvesting folks after they recently tanked. I don't think it will be a 10-bagger, but it should do well.
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Re: Getting brave again - stock picks
Old 12-09-2005, 03:40 PM   #5
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Re: Getting brave again - stock picks

I would never complain to someone who got me an annualized 8.2% return in these markets! * *I can't help it though, must....trade....I need a meeting to go to (hey, 90% of my portfolio sits tight, this is cheaper than buying a sports car) *.

Brewer, LOL!, thanks will do DD.

EDIT: Sun at $4, hmm, or better yet, SGI at ~45 cents! They both have a ton of government contracts, so they can't fail in the near future (right?), but where are they going to go? They could just languish for years, people who like unix are looking more and more at Linux (red hat and suse) which is hardware independent. Now that HP and IBM have built high end platforms to support both, Sun and SGI are playing catch up. In fact, SGI just recently decided to abandon it's proprietary OS -Irix- and is planning on switching to SUSE (o.k. both platforms are on the table but SUSE is the front runner). I haven't heard a peep from Sun on switching off of Solaris, they are still betting they can sell the "we are so reliable because of software/hardware integration" model. Personally, I think they are cooked. They may always have a market, but it will be a niche. Plus, their I/O bus architecture stinks IMHO, way behind the curve.
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Re: Getting brave again - stock picks
Old 12-09-2005, 04:01 PM   #6
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Re: Getting brave again - stock picks

I will get back to you once I watch Cramer's Mad Money at 5
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Re: Getting brave again - stock picks
Old 12-09-2005, 06:16 PM   #7
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Re: Getting brave again - stock picks

Quote:
Originally Posted by Laurence

Brewer, LOL!, thanks will do DD.
In case you are serious: Do not hold STON in an IRA. Taxable accounts only, otherwise the IRS goblin will eat you.
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Re: Getting brave again - stock picks
Old 12-09-2005, 06:52 PM   #8
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Re: Getting brave again - stock picks

I am watching some small, regional banks but it usually takes quite a bit of patience to invest in them. If your time horizon was say 10 years I might be able to help you out. Consolidating sector - banks have to buy other banks in order to expand in many areas and grow. Meanwhile you usually get a growing dividend stream.

Quote:
Bought a little Stryker (SYK) yesterday. I had some of their hardware used in my leg and they have a following among BetterInvesting folks after they recently tanked. I don't think it will be a 10-bagger, but it should do well.
I think the valuation is high given the possibility of government intervention via boomer's influence. Incredibly high margins = you have a bullseye on your back. I believe Biomet and the other big one have signaled in profit pressures in their Q reports and I do not see how SYK will be immune to that trend.


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Re: Getting brave again - stock picks
Old 12-09-2005, 07:39 PM   #9
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Re: Getting brave again - stock picks

Quote:
Originally Posted by Laurence
I would never complain to someone who got me an annualized 8.2% return in these markets! I can't help it though, must....trade....I need a meeting to go to (hey, 90% of my portfolio sits tight, this is cheaper than buying a sports car) .
Then exchange your vtv for some windsor II. A little racier. You can look at the top 20 holdings once a quarter and use a yellow and orange highlighter to point out the changes, type them into excel, make up a few pie charts, email them to your other email account for re-review later, respond to your own email, put it in your 'things to do later list; and drink a beer.

If you still have any further issues, repeat the last step until the problem resolves itself.
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Re: Getting brave again - stock picks
Old 12-09-2005, 07:45 PM   #10
 
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Re: Getting brave again - stock picks

Quote:
Originally Posted by ()
Then exchange your vtv for some windsor II.* A little racier.* You can look at the top 20 holdings once a quarter and use a yellow and orange highlighter to point out the changes, type them into excel, make up a few pie charts, email them to your other email account for re-review later, respond to your own email, put it in your 'things to do later list; and drink a beer.

If you still have any further issues, repeat the last step until the problem resolves itself.
This would be the 'Parentheses Dude'
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Re: Getting brave again - stock picks
Old 12-10-2005, 08:08 AM   #11
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Re: Getting brave again - stock picks

Send the $12k to me and I will invest it for you. You can trust me.*
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Re: Getting brave again - stock picks
Old 12-10-2005, 09:23 AM   #12
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Re: Getting brave again - stock picks

Nah, send it to me...

If you can trust someone with a Mel Brooks/Blazing Saddles avatar, who can you trust?

Wait for SUNW to get back to $3.50, then sell at $4.50!!

Brilliant...............
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