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Re: Global warming and financial positioning
Old 04-07-2007, 07:10 PM   #41
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Re: Global warming and financial positioning

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Originally Posted by hogtied
There is this hugh universal influence on the earth and other planets in our solar system. It's called the sun. The earth is extremely resilient and has been hamdling these fluctuations of radiation from this ball of "FIRE" for eons, and will continue to do so.
This kind of simplistic argument seems to come from a need to exonerate man. So what if man causes climate change? Are men not part of nature?
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Re: Global warming and financial positioning
Old 04-07-2007, 07:15 PM   #42
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Re: Global warming and financial positioning

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Originally Posted by wab
And what would qualify somebody to be an expert "climate scientist?"
Appropriate training, experience and participation in the appropriate peer reviewed literature -- the same as any other field of study.

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I'm certainly no climate scientist, but I understand complexity (and was exposed to fun stuff like fluid dynamics) well enough to understand that there can be no such thing as climate science in something as complex as earth's ecosystem. At best, it's an art like medicine.
You think complexity rules out science? I don't know what definition of science you are using, but you can apply the scientific method to the study of climate, so it is a legitimate science.

I'm not an expert in this field either, but simply because the modeling and simulation tools have limits does not mean they have no use. No one can tell you the exact thermal time constant of the earth. That doesn't keep us from estimating it using models based on the physics of heat flow. The more detailed the material data we put into the model and the more sophisticated our approach to numerically solving the PDEs, the better that estimate is going to be. Computers & software keeps evolving to solve ever more complex problems. Boundary condition accuracy is improved with each piece of data we measure. The record we can backtest hypotheses against grows with each tick of the clock. I think you are just trying to be difficult again, wab. You know better.
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Re: Global warming and financial positioning
Old 04-07-2007, 07:18 PM   #43
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Re: Global warming and financial positioning

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Originally Posted by sgeeeee
I don't know what definition of science you are using, but you can apply the scientific method to the study of climate, so it is a legitimate science.
You know that old-fashioned kind of science in which you make a hypothesis, then test that hypothesis, and generalize the results to make predictions? Sorry, no workie for complex systems like gas molecule effects on earth's climate.
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Re: Global warming and financial positioning
Old 04-07-2007, 07:20 PM   #44
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Re: Global warming and financial positioning


This kind of simplistic argument seems to come from a need to exonerate man

exonerating man was the farthest thing from my thinking. Earth was taking care of itself prior to man being on the scene and starting "FIRE"s.
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Re: Global warming and financial positioning
Old 04-07-2007, 07:28 PM   #45
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Re: Global warming and financial positioning

Quote:
Originally Posted by hogtied
There is this hugh universal influence on the earth and other planets in our solar system. It's called the sun. The earth is extremely resilient and has been hamdling these fluctuations of radiation from this ball of "FIRE" for eons, and will continue to do so.
However that being the case, there will be those who profit from this diatribe.
All those thousands of so called smart scientists worldwide, and they forgot about the influence of the sun! I bet they feel really silly now. Thanks for pointing that out. Jeepers.
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Re: Global warming and financial positioning
Old 04-07-2007, 07:38 PM   #46
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Re: Global warming and financial positioning

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Originally Posted by wab
You know that old-fashioned kind of science in which you make a hypothesis, then test that hypothesis, and generalize the results to make predictions? Sorry, no workie for complex systems like gas molecule effects on earth's climate.
You must be kidding, wab. The test may take 500 years, but theories are still testable. Many are testable through backtesting. I guess you consider geology to be an art too? Evolution? Art? Cosmology? Art?

What leads you to believe that complexity rules out science? Are you basing that on something you've read or simply decided that on your own?
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Re: Global warming and financial positioning
Old 04-07-2007, 07:41 PM   #47
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Re: Global warming and financial positioning

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Originally Posted by sgeeeee
You must be kidding, wab. The test may take 500 years, but theories are still testable. Many are testable through backtesting. I guess you consider geology to be an art too? Evolution? Art? Cosmology? Art?

What leads you to believe that complexity rules out science? Are you basing that on something you've read or simply decided that on your own?
OK, I'll grant you that we can make a bonafide climate experiment that lasts, say, 1000's of years (and we need a second planet earth as a control, too ). That's not the same thing as trying to answer the question *today* about whether man's activities are causing climate change. At best, we can come up with untestable models. Those models are woefully incomplete because of the complexity of our ecosystem. Where do you draw the line between science and art? I draw it at the line of testable predictions.

Edit: How about this for some common ground?

Can science answer the question of whether man is causing global climate change? Maybe, but we can't know if the answer is right until we're all dead.
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Re: Global warming and financial positioning
Old 04-07-2007, 07:48 PM   #48
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Re: Global warming and financial positioning

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Originally Posted by hogtied
JABBERWOCKY!
There is this hugh universal influence on the earth and other planets in our solar system. It's called the sun. The earth is extremely resilient and has been hamdling these fluctuations of radiation from this ball of "FIRE" for eons, and will continue to do so.

However that being the case, there will be those who profit from this diatribe.
Of course we have mass extinctions every now and then also! (Are they all caused by comets?) I suspect that "mother earth" will adapt. Man hasn't been around long enough to yet have a reliable data base!

MB
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Re: Global warming and financial positioning
Old 04-07-2007, 08:04 PM   #49
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Re: Global warming and financial positioning

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Originally Posted by wab
Where do you draw the line between science and art? I draw it at the line of testable predictions.
I'd say that it's pretty darn difficult to use past data to predict future performance, even if we accept the validity of the efficient climate hypothesis...
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Re: Global warming and financial positioning
Old 04-07-2007, 08:12 PM   #50
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Re: Global warming and financial positioning

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Originally Posted by brewer12345

Am I the only one who finds the naysayers on global warming oddly resemble the detractors of evolution? Scopes monkey trial part II here we come...
Funny I was just thinking the pro "man caused warmers" were more like the "next ice age" people of the 70's.
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Re: Global warming and financial positioning
Old 04-07-2007, 08:45 PM   #51
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Re: Global warming and financial positioning

Im putting all my money into ice cream makers. Trust me on this one
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Re: Global warming and financial positioning
Old 04-07-2007, 08:46 PM   #52
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Re: Global warming and financial positioning

I have seen studies on the internet with regard to endangered populations and reduced sea ice but I haven't read them. Below is a study by the US Fish and Wildlife where they are asking to place the polar bears on the endangered specie list. They only mention the reduction of habitat and food due to ice melting but they don't say WHY or WHO (page 1072..).

While the WHY/WHO debate will continue, the fact remains that global climate change is happening and it looks like steps will be taken to attempt to reverse it whether we like it or not.


http://frwebgate4.access.gpo.gov/cgi...ction=retrieve
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Re: Global warming and financial positioning
Old 04-07-2007, 08:50 PM   #53
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Re: Global warming and financial positioning

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Originally Posted by sgeeeee
You must be kidding, wab. The test may take 500 years, but theories are still testable. Many are testable through backtesting. I guess you consider geology to be an art too? Evolution? Art? Cosmology? Art?

What leads you to believe that complexity rules out science? Are you basing that on something you've read or simply decided that on your own?
One of the problems that I have with the 'science' is that they HAVE backtested the models they use for saying that man is causing global warming... from what I read, NONE, (that is ZERO) can start a millinea ago and accurately predict the temp today... and also along the way... all have to be 'adjusted' to get the results..

So, if they can not be backtested, then why should be belive them going forward??

And I will say again... I would LOVE to have some improvement in the air we breath by doing some of the things that we can do EASILY and that have big payoffs...

PS... one person brought up the food as an example... wasn't it a few years ago they were telling us that vitamin E was good for you I bought some and had just started to take them when ... LO and BEHOLD... a study just came out that they are BAD for us...

And didn't the government change the food pyramid because it was 'not good' anymore?? Just wondering??
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Re: Global warming and financial positioning
Old 04-07-2007, 09:16 PM   #54
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Re: Global warming and financial positioning

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I'd say that it's pretty darn difficult to use past data to predict future performance, even if we accept the validity of the efficient climate hypothesis...
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Re: Global warming and financial positioning
Old 04-07-2007, 09:21 PM   #55
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Re: Global warming and financial positioning

"Some see global warming while others see only hot air."

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Re: Global warming and financial positioning
Old 04-07-2007, 09:39 PM   #56
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Re: Global warming and financial positioning

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Originally Posted by wab
OK, I'll grant you that we can make a bonafide climate experiment that lasts, say, 1000's of years (and we need a second planet earth as a control, too ).
A control is not a requirement of science. It is one tool that can sometimes be useful in the testing of hypotheses. You claim we need 1000's of years. That is simply your hypothesis. I see no reason to believe that the only way we can make scientific progress related to environmental science is to have a 1000 year experiment. Think about geology, wab. How about Cosmology. We don't need a trillion year experiment or a control to apply the scientific method to the origins of the universe (far more complex than global warming). While there are plenty of unanswered questions and our theories are not as complete as those for simple fluid dynamics, we are learning more and more about collecting valid data and making sense of it.

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That's not the same thing as trying to answer the question *today* about whether man's activities are causing climate change. At best, we can come up with untestable models.
That's simply not true. Just because I can't test the entire theory in one fell swoop using a control earth for a 1000 years does not mean I cannot test the theory. I can't test whether an individual electron in my transistor actually follows the exact pattern of acceleration and scatter that my monte carlo simulator predicts. In fact, I know it does not. But I can look at macro behavior (such as current and capacitance) and test whether my theory is consistent with what I predict. I would guess that most science since the turn of the century is dependent on indirect observation of predicions.

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Those models are woefully incomplete because of the complexity of our ecosystem. Where do you draw the line between science and art? I draw it at the line of testable predictions.
A lot of people worry about that -- "what is science? what is art?" We Arizonans don't have to engage in that second question. We know what art is. Art is anything with a horse in it.

Quote:
Edit: How about this for some common ground?

Can science answer the question of whether man is causing global climate change? Maybe, but we can't know if the answer is right until we're all dead.
The nature of science is that we can never know anything with absolute certainty. The scientific process requires that we question everything -- even the established principles. But I don't see the global climate question to be nearly as complex as you do. I think science has made incredible progress in fields far more complex than global climate, and I think continued studies and growing sophistication of the models will (if they haven't already) answer the question of man's role in global warming. My read of the popularized scientific literature on the subject leads me to believe that science has already provided significant accuracy to the answer to that question. Just because a bunch of retirees on the internet are not familiar with the details of those studies, doesn't make them invalid.
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Re: Global warming and financial positioning
Old 04-07-2007, 09:47 PM   #57
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Re: Global warming and financial positioning

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The nature of science is that we can never know anything with absolute certainty.
I assume you'd agree that the quality of predictions varies across various scientific disciplines. Hard science vs soft science, say. I assume you wouldn't risk your life on a climatologist's prediction of the weather, say, a week from today.

So, to me the issue isn't "what do the scientists say?" This issue is the quality of the predictions from their models. And are we willing to restructure our society based on those predictions?

My answer would be "hell no." Not until they can at least get the weather right.
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Re: Global warming and financial positioning
Old 04-07-2007, 10:19 PM   #58
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Re: Global warming and financial positioning

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Originally Posted by wab
I assume you'd agree that the quality of predictions varies across various scientific disciplines. Hard science vs soft science, say. I assume you wouldn't risk your life on a climatologist's prediction of the weather, say, a week from today.

So, to me the issue isn't "what do the scientists say?" This issue is the quality of the predictions from their models. And are we willing to restructure our society based on those predictions?

My answer would be "hell no." Not until they can at least get the weather right.
You must realize how much your arguments might apply to retirement portfolio performance, don't you? We don't have a prayer of predicting the stock market performance tomorrow, but we do a much better job placing limits on the 30 year performance.

Besides, they get the weather pretty much right most of the time here in Phoenix. It's supposed to be warm and sunny tomorrow. I'll bet it will be.

You mention the quality of the predictions from their models. That is the ultimate test of a theory. I guess I'm not familiar with all the various models and simulations that climate scientists use. I have seen a few articles that use simulations to compute global temperatures based on various assumptions about thermal sources. They made some pretty good arguments about ocean temperatures over time assuming 1) increased green house gases, 2) constant greenhouse gases, and 3) immediate halt of further greenhouse gas production. Based on atmospheric chemistry, the earths thermal time-constant, etc. the simulation predicted the earth's average temperature over the next 100 years. The accuracy of the predictions are certainly dependent on the assumed input data and accuracy of the approximations. But I think it would be difficult to argue against the qualitative conclusions. Now, between qualitative descriptions about an event 100 years from now and absolute accuracy about tomorrow's weather, there is a lot of ground. This relatively young science is collecting data, developing hypotheses, and testing them in order to fill in that gap. My impression is that they have come further on that path than some posters on this board seem to believe. I may be wrong, but those that don't believe the scientific community also don't seem to be any better informed than I am. They are simply more inclined to mistrust scientists and some of them seem to be highly influenced by what news commentators tell them about science.
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Re: Global warming and financial positioning
Old 04-07-2007, 10:30 PM   #59
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Re: Global warming and financial positioning

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I guess I'm not familiar with all the various models and simulations that climate scientists use.
I'm not intimately familiar with them either, but the latest greatest models add stuff like terrain details. In other words, they are incredibly simplistic compared to the system they are attempting to model.

You're familiar with feedback systems and how nonlinearities can make systems unpredictable, right? Earth is a nonlinear system of nonlinear systems. Abandon all hope ye who hope to model her.

My guess is that man is probably responsible for some aspect of climate change, but I think we should simply adapt to the unpredictable changes rather than try to pretend we know what the long-term effects will be and try to stop them.
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Re: Global warming and financial positioning
Old 04-07-2007, 11:12 PM   #60
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Re: Global warming and financial positioning

Getting back to the original issue, energy is a security issue no matter how it is framed. At this time, IMHO, only solar has matured to the VC/investment stage with bio-fuels just behind at the research/VC stage.

For nuclear to re-surge the American public needs to be desperate, they don't trust the industry. Also the cycle time to get a plant on line is long.

Wind doesn't excite me as a significant energy source. IMHO geothermal has potential, as does tidal power generation but both are really just gleams in an engineer's eye.

Financially I wouldn't invest in low lying or potential drought areas.
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