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Re: Global warming and financial positioning
Old 04-09-2007, 09:13 PM   #121
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Re: Global warming and financial positioning

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Originally Posted by wab
OK, then my model is accept what you can't change, don't try to know what you can't know, and don't pretend you're smarter than the big analog computer called Earth.

There, now I have a "model." Can we move past the semantics now?
Ya know wab I think that you are way to smart to believe this I think that you are just jealous of California weather and see this as an opportunity to get rid of that constant northwest drizzle

MB
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Re: Global warming and financial positioning
Old 04-09-2007, 09:18 PM   #122
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Re: Global warming and financial positioning

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Originally Posted by 2B
I don't believe I've used "idiot" or "atheist" in this thread. If you like, you may claim them as your own this time.
wrong

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Originally Posted by 2B
I could go on but human induced climate change has become a religion to othewise atheist populations.
The above statement is from this thread. 'idiot' was in another thread. I'm mainly pointing out that your pattern of using labels such as these to describe those that do not agree with your point of view does nothing to strengthen your argument. Since I have been the recipient of some of your attempted insults in other discussions, I'd merely like to suggest that it be toned down. I'm hard-nosed enough to not be bullied out of the forum, but you've suceeded in alienating others with this tactic in the past. At least this time, the labels were not directed at specific posters, rather the "set of people who don't agree with you." I guess we could call that progress. But to pass judgment on the ideology and motives of an entire group of scientists, whether they are right or wrong, is a bit much.

Personally, I don't consider 'atheist' or 'socialist' to be insults. I'll even plead guilty to being at least one of the two. However, I think their use in the discussion in this way is not helpful, and closes more minds than it opens. Would you care to present some actual evidence to back up these assertions?

For the record, I'm not convinced that human activity is causing global warming. But it is certainly causing other problems, and these problems won't go away so long as society is "consumption-based."
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Re: Global warming and financial positioning
Old 04-09-2007, 09:26 PM   #123
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Re: Global warming and financial positioning

Quote:
Originally Posted by mb
sgeee is right on the model.

If you have an opinion then you have a model. Your definition of "model" is to narrow and you just don't recognize the model for what it is.

If you don't have a model then you have no basis for forming an opinion on the future consequences of CO2 emissions and with out an opinion on the future you cannot arrive at a opinion on what if any action (including no action) should be taken.

That fact that some of you have strong opinions that CO2 emisssion are benign suggests that you place great faith in your model but the fact that you don't even recognize your model for what it is just suggests that not a lot of thought has gone into it and that it probably isn't a very good model!

MB
Thanks for the confirmation, mb. I didn't think it would be difficult to lead the discusssion through a logical analysis process that would emulate a scientific discussion. . . I was clearly wrong.
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Re: Global warming and financial positioning
Old 04-09-2007, 09:32 PM   #124
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Re: Global warming and financial positioning

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Originally Posted by wab
. . . So, now I feel vindicated by the Real Scientists(TM).
You shouldn't. Once again you've hit one point like a religious zealout with a hammer. Unfortunately, the point you keep hitting is irrelevant to the discussion. You continue to ignore the key point. I think you've avoided answering the direct questions about your alternatives 4 or 5 times now.

Why don't you write another post claiming that your incredible insight has seen that the scientific models have flaws and quote other sources that agree with this obvious conclusion. Then pretend that this point somehow makes your illogical conclusions on global warming valid. That kind of thing works on internet discussion boards sometimes.
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Re: Global warming and financial positioning
Old 04-09-2007, 09:37 PM   #125
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Re: Global warming and financial positioning

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Originally Posted by mb
Ya know wab I think that you are way to smart to believe this I think that you are just jealous of California weather and see this as an opportunity to get rid of that constant northwest drizzle
I'm only smart enough to know what we can't know. Basically, I believe the models can accurately predict "warming." I'm doubtful that they can accurately predict how much, at what rate of change, and for how long. They can probably make some very crude approximations on second-order effects like "ice melts when it gets warmer." But tertiary effects on health, welfare, and species extinction? Fuhgetaboutit!

When you hear somebody predicting the future at this level of detail, just remember the famous butterfly effect, and then change the channel.

I'd also like to see a serious model of "Global Warming meets Peak Oil."
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Re: Global warming and financial positioning
Old 04-09-2007, 09:40 PM   #126
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Re: Global warming and financial positioning

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Originally Posted by sgeeeee
You shouldn't.
Ugh. Another content-free post from SG? The only reason I engaged you in this discussion was because I figured you'd be likely to bring more light than heat to the debate. About that, I was wrong.
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Re: Global warming and financial positioning
Old 04-09-2007, 10:06 PM   #127
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Re: Global warming and financial positioning

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Originally Posted by wab
Ugh. Another content-free post from SG? The only reason I engaged you in this discussion was because I figured you'd be likely to bring more light than heat to the debate. About that, I was wrong.
I feel the same way about your own contributions. And you score yet another post without answering a simple question.
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Re: Global warming and financial positioning
Old 04-09-2007, 10:15 PM   #128
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Re: Global warming and financial positioning

Will someone please write a 10 million line computer program so that SG can finally have his "model" and we can move on?
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Re: Global warming and financial positioning
Old 04-09-2007, 10:22 PM   #129
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Re: Global warming and financial positioning

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Originally Posted by sgeeeee
I feel the same way about your own contributions. And you score yet another post without answering a simple question.
Sticks and stones.... Neener neener! Seriously, I have no friggin' clue what simple question I'm so assiduously avoiding, but if it's part of some semantics game, I'll pass.

Back to the original topic (hah) of investment opportunities, I did take some solace in the NPR interview. Most of the participants knew they had to do a soft sell to get any sort of adoption of CO2 control, so I wouldn't try to do any sort of "front running."

It seems safe to assume that the US and European economies will be burdened by whatever policy is enacted, but places like China will not. China will probably be the ones selling us emission control devices and other goodies. Their economies will continute to grow faster than ours. Country-specific investing looks like the way to go.
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Re: Global warming and financial positioning
Old 04-09-2007, 10:26 PM   #130
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Re: Global warming and financial positioning

Best investments to take advantage of global warming worries? Invest in companies that sell bumper stickers and slogan buttons.
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Re: Global warming and financial positioning
Old 04-09-2007, 10:39 PM   #131
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Re: Global warming and financial positioning

Many of you are getting hung up on whether or not global warming is real or whether or not, if real, it is human caused. What I do know is that the earth's fresh water inventory at the poles is diminishing and that the good old USA is dependent on other countries for a HUGE piece of our energy resource. I don't give a fig about the reason(s). It does matter that we need to address the energy issue.

If countries from which we purchase crude oil dropped the price to $20/barrel it doesn't change our vulnerabilities... in fact crude oil price increases are a blessing because it gets us off our ever increasing energy fannies....

I agree with Wab, the issue is where to invest our precious nickel and dimes. At this moment I am not prepared to bet on any particular horse in the field.. but I did notice that one of Wab's ponies was on the top 100 list. Few of the 100 are publicly traded.

A while back I was pondering Norse Hydro as an investment until I found that they bought a French aluminum company. I nixed it because of the ever increasing cost of electricity necessary to produce aluminum, and the fact that it was French . Then I learned that France has the lowest electrical rates in Europe (except maybe Norse hydro electric dams) because they use nuclear power. Hummm. Maybe that wasn't so dumb an acquisition. Of course there is the imp in me who thinks that if any nationality willing to risk glowing in the dark to see in the dark it would be the French .
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Re: Global warming and financial positioning
Old 04-09-2007, 10:46 PM   #132
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Re: Global warming and financial positioning

Quote:
Originally Posted by mb
sgeee is right on the model.

If you have an opinion then you have a model. Your definition of "model" is to narrow and you just don't recognize the model for what it is.

If you don't have a model then you have no basis for forming an opinion on the future consequences of CO2 emissions and with out an opinion on the future you cannot arrive at a opinion on what if any action (including no action) should be taken.

That fact that some of you have strong opinions that CO2 emisssion are benign suggests that you place great faith in your model but the fact that you don't even recognize your model for what it is just suggests that not a lot of thought has gone into it and that it probably isn't a very good model!

MB
Dictionary.com Unabridged (v 1.1) - Cite This Source

10. a simplified representation of a system or phenomenon, as in the sciences or economics, with any hypotheses required to describe the system or explain the phenomenon, often mathematically.

15. to form or plan according to a model.

19. to simulate (a process, concept, or the operation of a system), commonly with the aid of a computer.

21. to use or include as an element in a larger construct: to model new data into the forecast.

American Heritage Dictionary - Cite This Source

A schematic description of a system, theory, or phenomenon that accounts for its known or inferred properties and may be used for further study of its characteristics: a model of generative grammar; a model of an atom; an economic model.


OK... above are the definitions of 'model' that might apply.... tell me which one you are refering...
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Re: Global warming and financial positioning
Old 04-09-2007, 10:56 PM   #133
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Re: Global warming and financial positioning

Quote:
Originally Posted by mb
sgeee is right on the model.

If you have an opinion then you have a model. Your definition of "model" is to narrow and you just don't recognize the model for what it is.

If you don't have a model then you have no basis for forming an opinion on the future consequences of CO2 emissions and with out an opinion on the future you cannot arrive at a opinion on what if any action (including no action) should be taken.

That fact that some of you have strong opinions that CO2 emisssion are benign suggests that you place great faith in your model but the fact that you don't even recognize your model for what it is just suggests that not a lot of thought has gone into it and that it probably isn't a very good model!

MB
How can both you and SG be so wrong in your statements.... I am using a MODEL.. I am using YOUR model... I listen to the OPINIONS that the people are giving based on the model, but then see how it is only an OPINION and that those OPINIONS keep changing, sometimes drastically... and I read how the people who put these models together keep saying they can not go back and predict how global weather would be today if they input the information from years ago... they have to 'fix' the data when it start to drift from what really happened....


So, I say, flawed model, flawed analysis, flawed cure....
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Re: Global warming and financial positioning
Old 04-10-2007, 12:58 AM   #134
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Re: Global warming and financial positioning

The scientific method and the english language have never been so tortured.
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Re: Global warming and financial positioning
Old 04-10-2007, 08:08 AM   #135
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Re: Global warming and financial positioning

Some models are better than others...

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Re: Global warming and financial positioning
Old 04-10-2007, 09:19 AM   #136
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Re: Global warming and financial positioning

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Originally Posted by Brat

.... Then I learned that France has the lowest electrical rates in Europe, because they use nuclear power.

if any nationality willing to risk glowing in the dark to see in the dark it would be the French .
Except the data indicates just the opposite. People are exposed to more radiation from coal fired plants than from nuclear plants.

http://www.uow.edu.au/eng/phys/nukew...uc_v_coal.html

Quote:
They also found that the radiation exposure from an average 1000 MW power plant comes to 4.9 person-sieverts a year for coal-fired power plants and 0.048 person-sieverts a year for nuclear-fired power plants.

This factor of 100 just looks at the nuclear fired power plant by itself. It doesn't include the complete nuclear fuel cycle, which starts with ore mining, goes to fuel processing and operation of the reactor, and finishes with waste disposal. In that case, the radiation dose from a nuclear-fired power plant increases to 1.36 person-sieverts a year.
Still 3.6x the radiation from coal. Those environmental people sure are doing us a favor with the 'No Nukes' bumper stickers, aren't they?

-ERD50
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Re: Global warming and financial positioning
Old 04-10-2007, 09:26 AM   #137
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Re: Global warming and financial positioning

Financially speaking, I just heard on the news this morning that there is a bill being worked on (can't remember which State) whereby anyone who buys an SUV will have to pay a $2500 penalty which will go into a "pot" to be used as a rebate for anyone who buys a more energy efficient vehicle.

My neighbor has 7 kids. They HAVE to have an SUV (Suburban to be exact). Why should they be penalized for that? I disagree that certain families should be penalized for purchasing a car that best meets their needs. I live in Colorado and my family loves to vacation with our travel trailer. In order to pull the trailer, we HAVE to use a TRUCK. Why should we be penalized for wanting to have fun, when no one really knows for sure if the SUVs are at the heart of the problem?

I don't mind doing my part to do the best I can to be responsible for preserving our planet, but I don't want financial penalties FORCED on people. When someone invents a cost-effective energy efficient SUV that handles well in the mountains and on the snow, people will buy it.
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Re: Global warming and financial positioning
Old 04-10-2007, 11:23 AM   #138
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Re: Global warming and financial positioning

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Originally Posted by mykidslovedogs


My neighbor has 7 kids. They HAVE to have an SUV (Suburban to be exact). Why should they be penalized for that?
where's the problem? They are contributing not only to global warming, but all other pollution problems as well by having such a large family.

Although they are helping keep SS and medicare solvent
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Re: Global warming and financial positioning
Old 04-10-2007, 11:31 AM   #139
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Re: Global warming and financial positioning

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My neighbor has 7 kids. They HAVE to have an SUV (Suburban to be exact).
They don't need a Suburban. They need birth control.
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Re: Global warming and financial positioning
Old 04-10-2007, 11:37 AM   #140
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Re: Global warming and financial positioning

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Originally Posted by mykidslovedogs
I live in Colorado and my family loves to vacation with our travel trailer. In order to pull the trailer, we HAVE to use a TRUCK. Why should we be penalized for wanting to have fun, when no one really knows for sure if the SUVs are at the heart of the problem?
A better solution would be to increase the price of gas substantially and let the market decided. The taxes should be earmarked for alternative energy deployment.
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