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Old 08-10-2016, 02:34 PM   #21
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They're all selling something. Or have a vested interest in gold.
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Old 08-10-2016, 03:25 PM   #22
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Finally! I've been waiting for someone, somewhere to call these "experts" on their claims!

Now, if we can get one for the 'rosy picture' experts!
I suspect it would be somewhat similar. The biggest perma-bull I can think of is Abby Joseph Cohen, and her prediction back in January was that the S&P 500 "may finish the year at 2,100." Since it hit that a month ago, she has revised her "prediction" to 2,150.
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Old 08-10-2016, 04:16 PM   #23
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I believe Hussman changed his approach, missing the second part of the recovery.

He basically now thinks that overvalued situations can persist as long as there is no event triggering a panic. So he expanded the model. Last I checked (a while ago) he's now in the "overvalued but no crash ahead" camp.

Whether it works dunno, but he's trying to learn from his mistakes and freely admits them.
Didn't his models look at the past? Seems that any decent model would have considered this scenario i.e. valuation is out of model's bounds but market ignores it and goes up.

I think that if the author showed us his model that would be much more interesting and maybe believable. If the model is really good then showing it would lead to popularization which is bad for that model going forward. So he can't or won't do that. So what we are left with is "believing" in the person's analytical skills and some rough statements from the modeler. Sort of like religion.
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Old 08-10-2016, 06:52 PM   #24
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I don't follow any of these experts, though have seen their names on the Web headlines.

But, but, but this caught my attention:

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Originally Posted by Totoro View Post
I believe Hussman changed his approach, missing the second part of the recovery.

He basically now thinks that overvalued situations can persist as long as there is no event triggering a panic. So he expanded the model. Last I checked (a while ago) he's now in the "overvalued but no crash ahead" camp.

Whether it works dunno, but he's trying to learn from his mistakes and freely admits them.
"Overvalued but no crash"? Uh oh!

Now, what's the chance he is proven wrong again?
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Old 08-11-2016, 06:44 AM   #25
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He does explain a lot of his thinking in data-drive logic, and is actually an investment manager.

I think he's worthwhile reading up on, he's not really a doom pundit:
Hussman Funds - Investing for long-term returns while managing risk - Home page
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Old 08-11-2016, 07:06 AM   #26
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I don't know why these quacks even get enough coverage to make their bizarre views even narrowly known.

That said, with respect to Mr. Weidemer, you can say that he is consistent... 50% unemployment, 90% stock market crash and 100% inflation starting soon... but thankfully he is also consistently WRONG!
'cause unfortunately Pb4uski fear sells.

I'm not sure if others have these things in their area but here in Philly every so often we have these "seminars" you can attend that are given by some "guru" has a sure fire way to protect your assets 100% while also growing them. They always have a "limited amount of seating" so call now and reserve.

I'm a bit late to the investment game as my late husband did most of it but after he passed I knew I had to learn a bit instead of just handing my money over to a FA.

It was so depressing, most of the information was pretty much how if I did not have a million bucks in the bank I could kiss my keaster goodbye because I was doooomed to spend my old age in a box, under a bridge, eating dog food.

my computer loads up onto Yahoo, every day there is a feed about how retirees are doomed.

My coworker actually told me about this site
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Old 08-11-2016, 09:23 AM   #27
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.. I was doooomed to spend my old age in a box, under a bridge, eating dog food.
Food, shelter and clothing (a box). At least the essentials are covered
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Old 08-11-2016, 09:33 AM   #28
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Well, a wise man once said.......There are those that don't know and those that don't know that don't know.
And an even wiser man who said:
Those that know, don't tell. Those that tell, don't know.
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Old 08-11-2016, 09:51 AM   #29
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So Buddha didn't know after all?

Darn.
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Old 08-11-2016, 11:10 AM   #30
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They're all selling something. Or have a vested interest in gold.
+1
See this:

Why even the best investing advice may be wrong - MarketWatch

Quote:
“Sell everything” or “buy now” or “head for gold” makes great headlines, but isn’t great strategy for individual investors.

The reason isn’t that the market observers are reading fluctuations and trends differently than individuals, using specific technical analysis or analyzing contrarily the fundamentals. Nor is it that the experts are always wrong, no matter how popular that sentiment might be.

The issue is that money managers run money, while individual investors run their own lives.

The experts you see, hear and read about live by the rules of an investment mandate and die if they can’t keep up with the competition, while investors live with their decisions and modify their strategies because they can’t afford to fall.

Thus, whenever you hear a market forecast and recommendation on what to do next, it pays to consider the differences between you and the guy making the recommendation.
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Old 08-11-2016, 12:35 PM   #31
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Thanks for all those helpful quotes. I'm going all gold and locking the TV dial to CNBC.
One, question though, what's the squiggly line and numbers in the picture mean?
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Old 08-11-2016, 03:29 PM   #32
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So Buddha didn't know after all?

Darn.
Buddha would be the last to know about the market movement.

Heck, he was broke after giving up his position as a prince, so would not have any money to invest, remember?

He was trying to find happiness without the use of money, while most of us still try to buy some happiness (like caviar, truffle, lobster, Cognac, single malt, etc...).
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Old 08-11-2016, 03:59 PM   #33
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He was trying to find happiness without the use of money, while most of us still try to buy some happiness (like caviar, truffle, lobster, Cognac, single malt, etc...).

Still, by those likenesses I've seen, he appears to have been well fed...
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Old 08-11-2016, 05:04 PM   #34
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Still, by those likenesses I've seen, he appears to have been well fed...
Hey, if someone offered to tell you the way to total enlightenment, wouldn't you buy him a Krispy Kreme?
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Old 08-11-2016, 08:20 PM   #35
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He does explain a lot of his thinking in data-drive logic, and is actually an investment manager.

I think he's worthwhile reading up on, he's not really a doom pundit:
Hussman Funds - Investing for long-term returns while managing risk - Home page
Are you sure? He seems stuck in permabear mode and so got the stopped clock break in 2008. http://www.thinkadvisor.com/2014/12/...are-dismal-ana

Not that it couldn't happen again......
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Old 08-11-2016, 08:30 PM   #36
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What amazes me about Weidemer is how he can be so wrong for so long and still continue to sell books like hot cakes. Consistently holding onto the 90% drop/50% unemployment seems way over-the-top to most of us, even making some of the other pundits' projections look bland. Yet his books seem to fly off the shelf at our local Barnes & Noble. Perhaps he figures one of these days he'll finally hit the big one and be seen for posterity as the one true prophet. Until then, just keep preaching/selling...

Yea, I was going to comment that he has the same prediction every year... but since I doubt we will ever get to 50% unemployment I predict that he will ALWAYS be wrong...
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Old 08-11-2016, 08:32 PM   #37
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Hey, if someone offered to tell you the way to total enlightenment, wouldn't you buy him a Krispy Kreme?

Excellent point! I've paid a lot more for a lot less.
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Old 08-11-2016, 08:50 PM   #38
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Buddha would be the last to know about the market movement.

Heck, he was broke after giving up his position as a prince, so would not have any money to invest, remember?

He was trying to find happiness without the use of money, while most of us still try to buy some happiness (like caviar, truffle, lobster, Cognac, single malt, etc...).
Quote:
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Still, by those likenesses I've seen, he appears to have been well fed...
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Hey, if someone offered to tell you the way to total enlightenment, wouldn't you buy him a Krispy Kreme?
There was no Facebook back then, so no one knows exactly what Buddha looked like.

Wikipedia shows the following statue from the 4th century, which is 8 centuries after Siddhartha's death, so the accuracy is not at all certain.


And by the way, don't you confuse the "laughing Buddha" with the honcho Buddha, the prince Siddhārtha Gautama who left his royal post to become a wandering preacher. The two are as different as Santa Claus from Jesus Christ.


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Old 08-11-2016, 08:59 PM   #39
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Wikipedia has this to say about the "laughing" Buddha.
Budai or Pu-Tai is a Chinese folkloric deity. His name means "Cloth Sack", and comes from the bag that he is conventionally depicted as carrying. He is usually identified with or seen as an incarnation of Maitreya, the future Buddha, so much so that the Budai image is one of the main forms in which Maitreya is depicted in China. He is almost always shown smiling or laughing, hence his nickname in Chinese, the Laughing Buddha.

In the West, the image of Budai is often mistaken for Gautama Buddha, and is hence called the Fat Buddha.
Note that Siddharta Gautama was born in eastern India or Nepal, while the laughing Buddha may not be real, and was a Chinese character. See following typical statue of Budai linked from Wikipedia.

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Old 08-11-2016, 09:14 PM   #40
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OK, here are several statues of the real Buddha, the prince Siddharta Gautama, as an ascetic. Some of these statues date back to the 2nd century.

No Kryspy Kreme here.







This is what Siddharta most likely looked like, given his nationality.



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