Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Re: Go all in or easy does it?
Old 03-04-2006, 08:50 PM   #61
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas Hill Country
Posts: 42,107
Re: Go all in or easy does it?

Quote:
Originally Posted by NYCGuy
Of course there are voices saying it's always a good time to buy real estate just like the voices that say it is always a good time to buy stocks....
...and voices saying the only safe place to be is in cash while we wait for the right opportunity to buy real estate or stocks sometime in the future.

For those who think they know which voices are correct, be my guest.

Waiting for the right opportunity is also a risk. Since many of us don't know when, or if, that opportunity will come along, we choose diversify and allocate our assets in whatever fashion we deem best and get on with our lives.


__________________

__________________
Numbers is hard

When I hit 70, it hit back

Retired in 2005 at age 58, no pension
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Re: Go all in or easy does it?
Old 03-04-2006, 10:00 PM   #62
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
cute fuzzy bunny's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Losing my whump
Posts: 22,697
Re: Go all in or easy does it?

Thats pretty much what I think too Wahoo. Anything can happen and I dont know and neither do any of the 'experts'. The difference is that I'll openly admit it.

I'm not into creating graphs to show me what I already want to see, and I dont know where the market is going. I didnt like equities 2 years ago or even a year ago, feeling they were overpriced, but earnings have continued to uptick and now I feel ok with them. I still held stocks the last 2 years and made plenty of money on them, overpriced though they might have seemed to me.

Good asset allocation still wins the day, and admitting that you dont know where things are going to go is the first hard step.

Now if things were really nutty, like they were in 1999, i'm with the 'wow, thats expensive, dont own that asset class!' crowd. But a P/E thats 5-10% over long term historic 'norms' doesnt make me twitch. And real estate is very overpriced in a lot of areas, no argument. But I dont know if anythings going to pop or slide or go sideways or go up.

Here's an indicator that works almost all the time though, and appears to have much better consistency than the ones that have been bandied about in this thread. Plot the s&p 500 and the 200 day moving average. When the average dips below the price line for 5 trading days, sell. When it moves above the price line for 5 trading days, buy. This approach would have kept you out of stocks for almost all of the downturns in the most recent 25-30 years and probably further back than that but I'm too lazy to look. Would have had you all in for the upturns.

The price chart has bounced off the 200 day MA a couple of times in the last year, and even done a few short dips below, but right now its in solidly saying to Own 'Em Baby.

Check it out with your favorite charting product...its pretty accurate...historically speaking...
__________________

__________________
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
cute fuzzy bunny is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Go all in or easy does it?
Old 03-04-2006, 10:04 PM   #63
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
cute fuzzy bunny's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Losing my whump
Posts: 22,697
Re: Go all in or easy does it?

Look at this...all in for the greatest bull market in history...the one nobody saw coming, and out for the bear that followed until it stopped dropping...pretty undeniable...

Attached Images
File Type: jpg last ten years.JPG (60.3 KB, 43 views)
Attached Files
File Type: jpg_thumb last ten years.JPG_thumb (6.8 KB, 0 views)
__________________
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
cute fuzzy bunny is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Go all in or easy does it?
Old 03-04-2006, 10:16 PM   #64
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas Hill Country
Posts: 42,107
Re: Go all in or easy does it?

Veddy interestink...

__________________
Numbers is hard

When I hit 70, it hit back

Retired in 2005 at age 58, no pension
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Go all in or easy does it?
Old 03-04-2006, 10:41 PM   #65
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
cute fuzzy bunny's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Losing my whump
Posts: 22,697
Re: Go all in or easy does it?

"But Shtoopid!"

Seriously though, this is a highly pooh-poohed charting tool. Anyone who ever took a lot of finance and investing classes knows for sure its a complete hoo-hah useless stat that just sort of happens to work almost all the dang time.

Its momentum. When things start to drop through the floor against long term price trending, they tend to continue going that way. Same for the upturns. Try it with your favorite index. Doesnt work as well for individual stocks...
__________________

__________________
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
cute fuzzy bunny is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
"10 easy steps to FSBO your house" Nords FIRE and Money 4 06-01-2006 01:36 PM
It's not as easy as you think Gone4Good FIRE and Money 8 12-21-2005 06:21 PM
Covered calls made easy....too easy? laurence FIRE and Money 8 09-13-2005 10:13 AM
How to make Asset Allocation Easy RYD FIRE and Money 7 08-03-2003 11:35 AM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 02:43 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.