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Old 09-03-2010, 01:21 PM   #21
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This is a definition based on a theory - which everyone does not necessarily believe, thus the reason for my comment.
The word 'theory' is only used below.

Market trend - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
. Dow Theory attempts to describe the character of these market movements.[17]

I usually consider beliefs like religion - the belief does not require reason, logic or proof.
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Old 09-03-2010, 01:35 PM   #22
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This is a definition based on a theory - which everyone does not necessarily believe, thus the reason for my comment.
Infidel! Burn him!
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Old 09-03-2010, 01:45 PM   #23
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You failed to include "I believe" and/or "according to some theories"...
I think, therefore it is.
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Old 09-03-2010, 01:49 PM   #24
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I never realized markets could be forecast so easy with a chart. I'm ditching the Ouija board.
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Old 09-03-2010, 02:01 PM   #25
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Analysis of Secular Bear Markets and Secular Bull Markets since 1900.
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Old 09-03-2010, 02:21 PM   #26
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Even if past is prologue, which it isn't, go back and calculate returns starting 10 years after those historic peaks, which is where we are today.

Quick and dirty using Shiller's data says total returns (including dividends) were about 9% from the period from 1939-1949 and about the same (9%)
from 1976-1982.

Oh, and if the idea is that it is going to take another 6 or 7 years to get back to the 2000 peak (making for a 16-17 year "secular bear" using the definition in the referenced link) than that would mean 7% average annual total returns for the SPX over that time frame (from 1100 to 1500 plus dividends). Not huge returns by historic perspectives, but a whole lot better than cash.

I guess I'm not seeing a reason to run for the hills in this data set.
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Old 09-03-2010, 03:05 PM   #27
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So we have three previous 'secular bear markets' to study. That's not much data at all, and each data point existed in its own 'environment'.

I honestly don't think we can draw much from how those markets acted to tell us how this market might act. Maintaining my AA. Sleeping well.

-ERD50
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Old 09-03-2010, 03:53 PM   #28
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If the market is truly forward looking by 6 to 9 months then I don't think we're going to see any breakout to the upside for at least another 6 months from now.

55/35/10 and content for now.
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Old 09-03-2010, 04:21 PM   #29
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"Secular bear market"
"200 day moving average" (not 198 day or 215 day-stick with 200 day!)
"Elliot Wave"
"Bollinger Band"
"Head and Shoulders pattern"

It seems clear that giving a name to a thing and even providing a precise-sounding definition does not mean that thing is a useful construct.

See "phlogiston chemists"
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Old 09-03-2010, 04:31 PM   #30
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40/60 and sleeping well.
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Old 09-03-2010, 04:32 PM   #31
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Ohh, ohh, ohh. I forgot the best part. After "suffering" mid/high-single digit returns for the remainder of the 'secular bear', then we get to enjoy the double digit returns from the 'secular bull' that is apparently baked in the cake for 2016-2032.

Assuming a middling 15% annual return for this next secular bull, then Dow 131,000 is a lock for 2032.

BUY STOCKS!!!!!

Weeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!!
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Old 09-03-2010, 04:35 PM   #32
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Originally Posted by samclem View Post
"Secular bear market"
"200 day moving average" (not 198 day or 215 day-stick with 200 day!)
"Elliot Wave"
"Bollinger Band"
"Head and Shoulders pattern"

It seems clear that giving a name to a thing and even providing a precise-sounding definition does not mean that thing is a useful construct.

See "phlogiston chemists"
Don't forget asset allocation and rebalancing of the same.

See "Market Timer" ('the lowest form of human life' as described by some)
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Old 09-03-2010, 04:48 PM   #33
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Originally Posted by samclem View Post
"Secular bear market"
"200 day moving average" (not 198 day or 215 day-stick with 200 day!)
"Elliot Wave"
"Bollinger Band"
"Head and Shoulders pattern"

It seems clear that giving a name to a thing and even providing a precise-sounding definition does not mean that thing is a useful construct.

See "phlogiston chemists"
This is what Taleb calls the "narrative fallacy". He has a strong point.
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Old 09-03-2010, 05:01 PM   #34
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This is what Taleb calls the "narrative fallacy". He has a strong point.
I am so tired of Taleb stealing my concepts!

Just a minute. Taleb says that giving a name and a definition to a thing doesn't mean it is a useful thing or a valid idea--and then he gives this very idea a name? I'm seeing a hall of mirrors here!
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Old 09-03-2010, 05:10 PM   #35
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Still 85/15 but I am not sleeping particularly well. The economy is still too sucky for I think anybody to be to really sanguine about their investments. Since cash is at 0% and bonds @3% you need to have a very low SWR or a very high pension to feel over confident.
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Old 09-03-2010, 09:56 PM   #36
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Let's not forget this is a secular bear market.

The 1100 area is one place to watch, on a closing basis (it isn't a magical number - don't think if it closes above 1100 we are in a new bull market; just an area of resistance to watch). My guess is that people don't want to be long into the 3 day weekend so the S&P won't close above 1100.
Secular bear markets still have strong rallies.

And the S&P500 did manage to close above 1100 after all.

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Old 09-03-2010, 10:02 PM   #37
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We are still comfortable with 35/45/20 equity/fix-income/cash.
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Old 09-03-2010, 10:05 PM   #38
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This is a definition based on a theory - which everyone does not necessarily believe, thus the reason for my comment.
Actually its based on a hypothesis, nothing so grand as a theory.
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Old 09-04-2010, 01:03 AM   #39
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We'll be in a "secular bear market" until we go up 50% in a year and then suddenly we'll be in a "secular bull market" in which people will be excited about buying stocks at 50% higher prices than they are today.

Frankly, I'm going to stick with buying them now while no one else seems to want them.
+1

I'm much happier buying while there is so much pessimisim around. While real estate remains our biggest asset class, I putting a lot of our savings into the stock market.

I seem to sleep easier with my money exposed to market volatility than I do with it sitting in a bank earning zip and being steadily eroded through inflation. Perhaps I need a new therapist.
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Old 09-05-2010, 11:50 AM   #40
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I am happy earning next to zip. (401K & Roth IRA)
Just have zero faith & dont buy much of what the media or the Gov. is spewing.
I have no problem missing a few % if things go up.
But cant fathom another 20%, 30% drop this late in the game.

1st time in 25 yrs I am 100% out of the market.
Not as hard as I thought it would be over the past 8 months.
Am actually up for the year as I max both out every month.
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