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LOL! · 09-03-2010, 08:11 AM

Just kidding. Did someone recently call the near-term market bottom last week? I want to thank them for that.

73ss454 · 09-03-2010, 08:18 AM

Dex, is that you?

FUEGO · 09-03-2010, 08:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LOL!

Did someone recently call the near-term market bottom last week? I want to thank them for that.

I certainly heard that call loud and clear from some here and elsewhere outside of the forum. I remain 100% stocks.

HFWR · 09-03-2010, 10:00 AM

Still puttering along with 40% stock funds, 40% bond funds, and some RE, CCF, and cash for good measure...

ziggy29 · 09-03-2010, 10:48 AM

Still comfortable with about a 40/60 at this point.

FinanceDude · 09-03-2010, 10:54 AM

100% of my equity exposure is 100% in stocks.........that's the tip of the day........

BigNick · 09-03-2010, 11:03 AM

I looked at my favourite mutual funds provider's fund performances for August. US and European equities were off 5-6% (and that could have been worse for me: the Euro lost some ground against the USD, so those funds with US market exposure should have been up in Euros on that basis). But emerging markets were steady, or even up somewhat.

I'm not completely into Taleb's "barbell" model yet (T-bills at one end, high-risk investments at the other, and little between), but I just don't see where the kind of growth needed to produce 7% returns is going to come from in mature economies over the next few years. (My best buy this year has been 15K of a fund which invests in African companies, up 40% in 12 months. YMMV!)

kcowan · 09-03-2010, 11:15 AM

Still lots of cash. Waiting for the future to become clear.

FIREd · 09-03-2010, 11:16 AM

Roughly 40/30/30 stocks/bonds/cash. But the stock portion in on steroids (stock options baby - limited downside, unlimited upside) and my portoflio is still up about 5% since Tuesday.

jIMOh · 09-03-2010, 11:16 AM

I was 100% stocks on the way down, so you bet your a$$ I am 100% now as I hope this is the up (I am not holding my breath). Still have 15 years to go, so no hurry here.

I am buying low right now LOL

dex · 09-03-2010, 11:37 AM

Let's not forget this is a secular bear market.

The 1100 area is one place to watch, on a closing basis (it isn't a magical number - don't think if it closes above 1100 we are in a new bull market; just an area of resistance to watch). My guess is that people don't want to be long into the 3 day weekend so the S&P won't close above 1100.
On the attached chart the 50day MA (turning down) is below the 200MA (flat).

On Tuesday, there could be another pop, which would be a good time to sell.

I'm playing with the idea of a very small short on the Tues pop.

It is good to be watching this all unfold from the sidelines.

dex · 09-03-2010, 11:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 73ss454

Dex, is that you?

Not me, we have some time on that call.

REWahoo · 09-03-2010, 11:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dex

Let's not forget this is a secular bear market.

You failed to include "I believe" and/or "according to some theories"...

73ss454 · 09-03-2010, 11:47 AM

Funny Dex, I'm thinking this is a good time to watch while fully invested, not from the sidelines as you suggest. I guess that's what makes the world go around.

Hamlet · 09-03-2010, 11:47 AM

We'll be in a "secular bear market" until we go up 50% in a year and then suddenly we'll be in a "secular bull market" in which people will be excited about buying stocks at 50% higher prices than they are today.

Frankly, I'm going to stick with buying them now while no one else seems to want them.

Quote:

Originally Posted by dex

Let's not forget this is a secular bear market.

The 1100 area is one place to watch, on a closing basis (it isn't a magical number - don't think if it closes above 1100 we are in a new bull market; just an area of resistance to watch). My guess is that people don't want to be long into the 3 day weekend so the S&P won't close above 1100.
On the attached chart the 50day MA (turning down) is below the 200MA (flat).

On Tuesday, there could be another pop, which would be a good time to sell.

I'm playing with the idea of a very small short on the Tues pop.

It is good to be watching this all unfold from the sidelines.

73ss454 · 09-03-2010, 11:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kcowan

Still lots of cash. Waiting for the future to become clear.

Yeah, I'd wait till there is a full recovery and then jump in.

dex · 09-03-2010, 11:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by REWahoo

You failed to include "I believe" and/or "according to some theories"...

No need - there is a definition and we met that definition.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_trend

A secular market trend is a long-term trend that lasts 5 to 25 years and consists of a series of sequential primary trends. A secular bear market consists of smaller bull markets and larger bear markets; a secular bull market consists of larger bull markets and smaller bear markets.
In a secular bull market the prevailing trend is "bullish" or upward moving. The United States was described as being in a secular bull market from about 1983 to 2000 (or 2007), with brief upsets including the crash of 1987 and the dot-com bust of 2000–2002.
In a secular bear market, the prevailing trend is "bearish" or downward moving. An example of a secular bear market was seen in gold during the period between January 1980 to June 1999, culminating with the Brown Bottom. During this period the nominal gold price fell from a high of $850/oz ($30/g) to a low of $253/oz ($9/g),[4] and became part of the Great Commodities Depression.

______

There are a couple of point I disagree with - the length, from memory, more like 13-18 years. The beginning was 2000.

You can google the term form more info. We have several more years to go. A secular bear market grinds people out of it. Just as with a secular bull market; when everyone is in - it is time to get out. With the secular bear; when people are saying they will never go into the stock market again - it is time to get in.

kyounge1956 · 09-03-2010, 11:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LOL!

Just kidding. Did someone recently call the near-term market bottom last week? I want to thank them for that.

Well, there was this, but it was a "here we go again" rather than calling a bottom, an ability I make no claims of possessing. I didn't realize at the time that the Dow had briefly dipped below 10,000 earlier in the day.

LOL! · 09-03-2010, 12:05 PM

I don't know what will happen in the future, but I am surprised by what has happened in the last few months. Large caps have not done as well as small caps. Here are some YTD returns as of yesterday:

VTI -0.30%
VV -0.79%
VXF 3.96%
VBR 3.90%
VEU -2.09%
VSS 3.33%
VWO 2.93%
DGS 10.36%

Presumably, if you are reading this, you know what asset classes these ETFs are, but here's a hint: Large caps are down; small caps are up.

I may need to consider rebalancing from small caps towards large caps.