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View Poll Results: Where will the price of gold by in 5 years?
Over the next 5 years gold will out perform the SP500 by 10% or more 18 32.14%
Over the next 5 years gold will be with plus or minus 10% of the SP500 16 28.57%
Over the next 5 years gold will under perform the SP500 by 10% or more 22 39.29%
Voters: 56. You may not vote on this poll

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Re: Gold
Old 04-11-2006, 06:42 PM   #121
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Re: Gold

Quote:
Originally Posted by Apocalypse . . .um . . .SOON
cfb: No argument will satisfy you--unless it's yours . Although, I could have presented mine better. But what's the point, eh?
You didnt make an argument. Which I wasnt going to bring up until this.

You presented no basis for why gold would be any more or less beneficial to own than beaver cheese. Believe me, I was listening.
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Re: Gold
Old 04-11-2006, 07:51 PM   #122
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Re: Gold

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cute Fuzzy Bunny
You didnt make an argument.* Which I wasnt going to bring up until this.

You presented no basis for why gold would be any more or less beneficial to own than beaver cheese.* Believe me, I was listening.
What's the best way to buy beaver cheese? Or is it better to buy manufacturers of beaver cheese making equipment?
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Re: Gold
Old 04-11-2006, 07:53 PM   #123
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Re: Gold

Oh man, talk about material to run with. It's over the line though even for me...but I hear Monistat can help with...oh never mind.
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Re: Gold
Old 04-11-2006, 08:19 PM   #124
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Re: Gold

cfb:* You're right about the argument, but I also suspect you won't quit or believe until I dredge up ALL the money flows everywhere for the past 35 years.* Then we'll have a statistics argument about the absurd.* Not worth it.* I've got better things to do than lose a "stupid" argument.

But :, I did forget one thing I wanted to mention about gold tracking inflation.* After Paul Volker raised interest rates and sniffed out beaver cheese inflation the last time, gold started going down in price, finally reaching about $250/oz.* My contention, no proof given at all, is that money started moving toward financial stocks and stocks that performed best with larger amounts of leverage.* It moved toward money makers and away from commodities and gold; hence, the price non-correlation with inflation.* People felt secure again with paper money.* But, as you know, the pendulum swings.*

I can't prove it, but I suspect gold will perform in a similar fashion again, like the late 70s-early 80s.*

Time to go, but I have the really important stuff to talk about next--non-gold.

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Re: Gold
Old 04-11-2006, 09:36 PM   #125
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Re: Gold

Quote:
Originally Posted by Apocalypse . . .um . . .SOON
cfb: You're right about the argument, but I also suspect you won't quit or believe until I dredge up ALL the money flows everywhere for the past 35 years. Then we'll have a statistics argument about the absurd. Not worth it. I've got better things to do than lose a "stupid" argument.
Sorry you feel that way. I had done my due dilligence and found no correlations or indicators that said gold was worth more than a nominal holding. But I had an open mind. You feel strongly about this and I wanted to hear why. At best I can say you have a gut feeling. I didnt hear any new information or any data that would cause any change of heart.

Whether you or other people think so, I change my mind about a lot of stuff and form (and have formed) many of my opinions and investment directions based on what other people have said here. Fer chrissakes, about a third of my taxable portfolio is invested in a fund Charlie recommended to me.

I am not, however, wishy-washy about my own opinions. Thats a bad thing?
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Re: Gold
Old 04-12-2006, 03:29 AM   #126
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Re: Gold

like all investments and things we buy to make money gold is just another vehicle..but as will rogers said only buy investments that go up and sell the ones that go down.....great advice....i made great money in gold the last 2 years ,why? it went up.....i intend to hold it just a little more and try to suck a little more profit and then sell off my gains and rebalance back to the 5% or so i normally hold.......the fact is too that gold with few exceptions tracks oil pricing but without the extreme swings..as volitale as gold can be gold only doubled over the last few years while oil was up 500%....it can be a slightly less volitile play on oil at least right now.
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Re: Gold
Old 04-12-2006, 07:27 AM   #127
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Re: Gold

Through all the debate, it sounds as though a number of folks here are comfortable with 3% to 5% or so in precious metals. That's our position as well.

And as to the correlations, does gold have true intrinsic value, what will it do in the future ... seems to me, it is mainly perception and history. Perhaps no base logic, but human emotions are obviously a huge factor in investing. We may never be smart enough to understand all the psychological reasons people treasure gold ... but treasure it they do. Ergo, it remains a viable investment.
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Re: Gold
Old 04-12-2006, 08:30 AM   #128
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Re: Gold

I have not studied gold. I have no clue if it follows inflation, or oil, or beaver cheese. I have thought about what makes gold a value. Nothing, well practically nothing. Those who say it has limited use, jewelry and electronics sure seem to be right. However, it seems throughout history mankind has valued gold. Long before electricity was discovered. I look at foreign nations, especially those that seem to hold large amounts of US currency, and they value gold. The average person on the street in those nations attempts to buy it as a ‘store house’ of value. Therefore, it is in my portfolio as a buy and hold. (a little over 5%). If things really turn brown, history does seem to indicate the rest of the world turns to gold, and in recent history dollars. If it is the dollar that is brown, maybe the euro. So for me, precious metals are not like the rest of my investments. It is a hedge against hyper inflation. I actually figure my SWR minus the precious metals investment.
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Re: Gold
Old 04-12-2006, 09:29 AM   #129
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Re: Gold

Hey CFB, just for fun sometime, take a drive on Hyw 70 (Out of Oroville, heading towards Quincy). Follows the Feather River the entire way.

The guys with power dredgers are all over that river like white on rice since the price of gold went up!

Hot Damn, the Rush is on.
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Re: Gold
Old 04-12-2006, 10:14 AM   #130
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Re: Gold

Even though there is no direct comparison between gold and “beaver cheese”…
I believe that G. Edward Griffin’s book “The Creature from Jekyll Island” contains some enlightening information about the nature of money and gold. Below is a link:

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/AS...indebove40w-20


In addition to being an interesting read, it sheds some light on the relationship between gold and fiat money. Moreover, Griffin’s explanation of the rise of the Federal Reserve and the history of money in the United States is well worth reading.

I recommend this book with the exception of the later chapters. His conspiracy theories have to be taken with a large grain of salt.
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Re: Gold
Old 04-12-2006, 10:59 AM   #131
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Re: Gold

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jarhead*
The guys with power dredgers are all over that river like white on rice since the price of gold went up!
Fishing... power dredging... fishing... power dredging...

I think I'd rather be surfing.
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Re: Gold
Old 04-12-2006, 11:19 AM   #132
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Re: Gold

Hmm

I'd better start checking my e-mail in case Jerry tells me somebody shows up with a boatload of fiat money to reopen our mine near Jamestown, CO.

heh, heh, heh

Last guy went broke trying to meet mine safety reg.'s
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Re: Gold
Old 04-12-2006, 11:26 AM   #133
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Re: Gold

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jarhead*
Hey CFB, just for fun sometime, take a drive on Hyw 70 (Out of Oroville, heading towards Quincy). Follows the Feather River the entire way.

The guys with power dredgers are all over that river like white on rice since the price of gold went up!

Hot Damn, the Rush is on.
Last time we had the big rains, slides and muck roiling (what was that...1997? 98?) everyone was buying their own panning equipment and sitting in the river panning. Lots of people came up with 500-1000 bucks worth!

Considering our local riverside park that has thousands of acres of open fields, soccer and baseball fields was under about 20' of water and currently covered with 2-5' of sludge that used to be the riverbottom in a rich gold area...might be worth a day of panning. I'll bet the competition for who gets to clean that mud off the fields is pretty stiff.

Which brings me to another question. I'll bet the tools and processes for finding and recovering gold are a lot better than they used to be. Does that change the dynamics of the metal pricing once it rises over a specific threshold? Like the tar sands in canada would be tapped at a specific oil price?
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Re: Gold
Old 04-12-2006, 11:48 AM   #134
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Re: Gold

Here are some fun facts from my federal government:

http://www.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/canwaters-e..._e.asp?Catid=1
  • There are about 26,000 tonnes of gold in the ocean, about 5 grams for each of the 5 billion humans on the Earth.

(Of course, it'd be pretty pointless to get it out since the oceans are so huge.)
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Re: Gold
Old 04-12-2006, 01:14 PM   #135
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Re: Gold

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cool Dood
Here are some fun facts from my federal government:

http://www.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/canwaters-e..._e.asp?Catid=1
  • There are about 26,000 tonnes of gold in the ocean, about 5 grams for each of the 5 billion humans on the Earth.

(Of course, it'd be pretty pointless to get it out since the oceans are so huge.)
Cool Dude,

You can have my 5 grams. Just go to any ocean to collect.
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Re: Gold
Old 04-12-2006, 03:11 PM   #136
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Re: Gold

Quote:
Originally Posted by johnlw
Even though there is no direct comparison between gold and “beaver cheese”…
I propose that beaver cheese be one of the words, like **** and ***** that get bleeped. As one who prefers his beaver sans cheese, this phrase is becoming difficult.

Ha
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Re: Gold
Old 04-12-2006, 03:20 PM   #137
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Re: Gold

Beaver cheese is a completely uncorrelated asset class. It neither rises, nor falls, nor has any intrinsic value. Nobody will buy it. Nobody currently sells it. I doubt there is in fact, any beaver cheese at all. Therefore we should all hold a nominal value in our portfolios. Say, 1.5% avocado colored cheese and 1.5% harvest gold colored cheese.

I'll be creating a new ETF that will be available for trading by next monday, symbol: BECH. Shares will trade for one dollar. Always.
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Re: Gold
Old 04-12-2006, 03:25 PM   #138
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Re: Gold

Can I get a Beaver Cheese DRIP?
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Re: Gold
Old 04-12-2006, 03:34 PM   #139
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Re: Gold

When I wrote that last post, I thought about saying there was also a DRIP program, but decided that was going too far.

I do appreciate that there is someone who will go where I will not...
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Re: Gold
Old 04-12-2006, 03:44 PM   #140
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Re: Gold

hey, I'm just grabbing anything I can find that's still available. It's not my fault if all that's left is a bit toward the edge!
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