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View Poll Results: Where will the price of gold by in 5 years?
Over the next 5 years gold will out perform the SP500 by 10% or more 18 32.14%
Over the next 5 years gold will be with plus or minus 10% of the SP500 16 28.57%
Over the next 5 years gold will under perform the SP500 by 10% or more 22 39.29%
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Re: Gold
Old 04-12-2006, 03:55 PM   #141
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Re: Gold

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cute Fuzzy Bunny
I'll be creating a new ETF that will be available for trading by next monday, symbol: BECH. Shares will trade for one dollar. Always.
I'm thinking BECH is a stock ** would probably short.

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Re: Gold
Old 04-12-2006, 04:01 PM   #142
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Re: Gold

Haha: You nailed it again, but boys like to be boys someplace in life.

cfb: I thought about what you said also. When I was presenting my non-argument I thought it would be more important to identify the problem (too much money in the system) rather than a spoon fed answer about gold. Scientists and engineers and others trying to solve a problem first try to see it, the problem, as clearly as possible. Oftentimes, if the problem is seen correctly, the answer almost spontaniously flows out of the real problem. As you know, businessmen try to work in the same way. I didn't do an excellent job about what has been going on with our money over the past 75-92 years (since the creation of the Fed). There is much history in books and on the internet about such stuff, and they can do a much better job than me. I thought if I presented a little bit about the degeneration of money, which I see as accelerating especially over the past five years, you automatically would see gold as a spontanious answer (fake money vs. real money). History is rich with what has happened to "representative" currencies.

Far more important than gold, which truly is less useful than just about anything, is the fact that it serves as a new and different tool to measure what may or may not be going on in our economy. (I was originally hoping for questions regarding this um phenomenon from you.) I see it as a powerful tool in recognizing various facets of the economy. For example, a year ago, it took about 420 oz of AU to buy the median house in this country . Today it's about 380. R. Russell thinks the DOW and price of gold need to cross before
the economy is close to rebalanced. He's written a book about Dow theory. Again, I can't/won't monopolize a huge part of this message board. I suspect you can find it yourself if you are truly interested in understanding the not only out economy, but our current political problems and the alienation that exists in this country.

But it's not yours until you do the work. I will point if you ask the correct questions, not the ones where you appear to be baiting me. I have a book called Empire of Debt by Bill Bonner. If you send Martha or me a mailing address I will be happy to give it to you and even pay for the postage.

--Greg
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Re: Gold
Old 04-12-2006, 04:13 PM   #143
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Re: Gold

To quote Gordon Lightfoot, "In this fair Land". Where might you'se be from Dood? eh?
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Re: Gold
Old 04-12-2006, 04:39 PM   #144
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Re: Gold

Apocalypse (Greg):

I thought you did a pretty good job in your post, given the constraints of a message board like this.

I also read Bonnerís book and thought it was good.

As you state, if someone is really interested in the subject, some in depth reading is probably required.

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Re: Gold
Old 04-12-2006, 04:58 PM   #145
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Re: Gold

Shouldn't there be like a Wikipedia page that lays out the basic premise behind what you're arguing?

I can't imagine it takes a thousand-page book to explain a reason to buy gold, at least I'm sure most of the millions of people holding gold never read that book...
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Re: Gold
Old 04-12-2006, 06:34 PM   #146
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Re: Gold

Book - I don't need no stinking book - I like rocks aka gold, sillver, platinum, faceted unmount semi precious.

Now a book on beaver cheese and freezed dryed food.

Old habits die hard - a beaver cheese DRIP? Wonder how it correlates MPT wise with freeze dryed?

History channel repeated their gold program the other night. And yes - I've been caught reading Bonner in the past - not the book though.

Sanity is overrated!

heh heh heh heh

P.S. Raddr has a gold timing model on his board.
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Re: Gold
Old 04-12-2006, 06:45 PM   #147
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Re: Gold

Quote:
Originally Posted by Apocalypse . . .um . . .SOON
Far more important than gold, which truly is less useful than just about anything, is the fact that it serves as a new and different tool to measure what may or may not be going on in our* economy.* (I was originally hoping for questions regarding this um phenomenon from you.)* *I see it as a powerful tool in recognizing various facets of the economy.* For example, a year ago, it took about 420 oz of AU to buy the median house in this country .* Today it's about 380.* R. Russell thinks the DOW and price of gold need to cross before* *
the economy is close to rebalanced.*
--Greg
I agree, and wish I could find the data on the Dow:Gold ratio over the last 100+ years. *There have been times in the not so distant history when buying the Dow was considered the speculative investment. There have been times when stocks in general were considered risky. Cycles come and go. We appear to be entering the era when tangible assets of all kinds, which have been depressed for 20+ years, are making a come back. I don't see why this is surprising. It is very likely that for a period of time the commodities themselves, and companies that produce them, and provide support and infrastructure, (such as mining equipment) will do very well. Of course the trend will not last forever, any more than any other cycle has, but I don't intend to fight the trend. Year to date I have already made one and a half times what I will make at work all year, and my portfolio is only a fraction of what most people here have. Again, this is not sustainable long-term, but in the short-term it's hard to "dis" the metals market.
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Re: G**d
Old 04-12-2006, 06:59 PM   #148
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Re: G**d

now that the discussion seems to have veered back to g**d (from beaver cheese) ... seems appropriate to at least mention that g**d broke $600 ... just another 40% or so and it will be back to a more than quarter century high.

... a look at the CRB commodities index might lead one to think we're approaching a cyclical peak ... as Focu$ed notes, "cycles come and go" ...
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Re: Gold
Old 04-12-2006, 07:06 PM   #149
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Re: Gold

Quote:
Originally Posted by Focu$ed
I agree, and wish I could find the data on the Dow:Gold ratio over the last 100+ years.
This would be more or less useless, as gold was pegged to the USD for years prior to Nixon removing the peg in 1971.

Ha
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Re: G**d
Old 04-12-2006, 07:38 PM   #150
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Re: G**d

Quote:
Originally Posted by d
now that the discussion seems to have veered back to g**d (from beaver cheese) ... seems appropriate to at least mention that g**d broke $600 ... just another 40% or so and it will be back to a more than quarter century high.
But not in inflation adjusted dollars. The same price point would be considerably higher now.
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Re: Gold
Old 04-12-2006, 08:17 PM   #151
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Re: Gold

Quote:
Originally Posted by Apocalypse . . .um . . .SOON
cfb: I thought about what you said also. When I was presenting my non-argument I thought it would be more important to identify the problem (too much money in the system) rather than a spoon fed answer about gold.
Theres what went wrong. I'm sure plenty of things can go wrong. Historically, plenty of things did go wrong and some that could have, didnt. I cant guess, you cant guess, nobody can guess. Thats why you lay out your asset allocation in the buckets you do and in the bucket sizes you do. Its still not clear to me what the "gold" bucket does for me. It doesnt seem to ying or yang with anything with consistency...at least not anymore. So whether the problem is currency valuations or godzilla, I dont see the benefit. Except as I've already described, the blind run to gold when 'scary' things happen, and I think that bullet may have already left the chamber.

Quote:
Scientists and engineers and others trying to solve a problem first try to see it, the problem, as clearly as possible. Oftentimes, if the problem is seen correctly, the answer almost spontaniously flows out of the real problem. As you know, businessmen try to work in the same way. I didn't do an excellent job about what has been going on with our money over the past 75-92 years (since the creation of the Fed). There is much history in books and on the internet about such stuff, and they can do a much better job than me. I thought if I presented a little bit about the degeneration of money, which I see as accelerating especially over the past five years, you automatically would see gold as a spontanious answer (fake money vs. real money). History is rich with what has happened to "representative" currencies.
I've read the material that follows what you were talking about and I understand it completely. Might be perfectly reasonable and the conclusions that are described might in fact be where we end up. But I usually failed to see any basis in a lot of the claims, a fair bit of the 'discussion' adopted data that supported the beliefs while ignoring equally good data that refuted them, and there was often a lot of leaping involved to get to those conclusions.

As far as seeing gold as the spontaneous answer...nope, that didnt happen. When it was a rare metal, hard to come by, a lot of currencies were pinned to it and paper currency represented an actual holding...sure. Not today. But thats where I thought I was maybe missing something, since it seems to clear to some other people. Thats why I asked.

It doesnt help that in some of the pro-gold sites, if they started talking about UFO's and bigfoot, it would fit in well enough. :-/

Quote:
I will point if you ask the correct questions, not the ones where you appear to be baiting me.
Oh give me a break. My life doesnt consist of asking people questions to see if I can set them off. I asked a legitimate question. I dont think I got a legitimate answer. I definitely had a preconceived notion, but as I said, I have an open mind. Perhaps the problem is that you made a false presumption of my intentions and proceeded from there.
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Dow/Gold ratio
Old 04-12-2006, 08:36 PM   #152
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Dow/Gold ratio

Dow/Gold ratio was in the vicinity of 20 (1970), fell to about 1.3 in 1980, then rose to 40+ around 99/00 ... a somewhat unremarkable bowl shape... has since retraced to about 20. *If the Dow were to fall back to its prior cyclical low and gold simultaneously reached its prior cyclical high, the ratio will again approach 1. *(While even less meaningful, the ratio was also in the near 1 vicinity during the 30's).

So what? The ratio, in hindsight, simply confirms that one should have sold gold at its high, and bought at its low.

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Re: Gold
Old 04-12-2006, 09:01 PM   #153
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Re: Gold

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cute Fuzzy Bunny
When it was a rare metal, hard to come by, a lot of currencies were pinned to it and paper currency represented an actual holding...sure.* Not today.* But thats where I thought I was maybe missing something, since it seems to clear to some other people.* Thats why I asked.
I guess what some of us are saying, is that gold still is a rare metal, and hard to come by. The fact that we went off the gold standard and currencies are no longer pinned to it isn't because gold ceased to be rare and valuable. Gold has always been the enemy of fiat money. When the gold standard, and convertibility, were abandoned, central banks/governments could happily inflate the money supply all they liked, which is what always happens when currencies cease to be tied to gold. In the last 20+ years central banks have done their best to depress the price of gold, mask inflation, and defend their own currencies. Gold has not yet fully priced in the flood of inflation created in the last couple decades, IMO.
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Re: Gold
Old 04-13-2006, 12:25 AM   #154
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Re: Gold

Anyone who doesn't buy gold is a Hitler loving Nazi. It is the greatest investment in the world. You can make integrated circuits out of it. You can make wedding rings out of it. I bet you can even make kayaks out of it.

Can we stop now
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Re: Gold
Old 04-13-2006, 03:15 AM   #155
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Re: Gold

Its still not clear to me what the "gold" bucket does for me
QUOTE

well for me it gave me a 34% gain on average every year over the last 3 years...heck im happy......
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Re: Gold
Old 04-13-2006, 12:47 PM   #156
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Re: Gold

Ah yes, someone with a good long term horizon. The same was said about internet stocks in 1999.

Thanks SG, I think that pretty much caps it.
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Re: Dow/Gold ratio
Old 04-13-2006, 01:02 PM   #157
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Re: Dow/Gold ratio

Quote:
Originally Posted by d
Dow/Gold ratio was in the vicinity of 20 (1970), fell to about 1.3 in 1980, then rose to 40+ around 99/00 ... a somewhat unremarkable bowl shape... has since retraced to about 20. *If the Dow were to fall back to its prior cyclical low and gold simultaneously reached its prior cyclical high, the ratio will again approach 1. *(While even less meaningful, the ratio was also in the near 1 vicinity during the 30's).

So what? The ratio, in hindsight, simply confirms that one should have sold gold at its high, and bought at its low.

Or, heaven forbid, we could view it the other way. If the ratio travels from 1 at one extreme, to 40 at the other, and makes it's way periodically over that course like a pendulum, then the lesson is as much about where to sell and buy the DOW as it is about where to buy and sell gold.
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Re: Gold
Old 04-13-2006, 02:23 PM   #158
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Re: Gold

Post godwin, here's a good source of fairly neutral information. It provides some succinct characterizations of Greg's concerns, some good charts and data, decent basic reporting on the benefits of gold as an investment and some jumping off points to dig deeper into various subtopics.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_as_an_investment

If you've never read a wiki article and dont know what it is, see here http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:About

Its basically an encyclopedia written by anyone and everyone. Anyone can edit, add to and alter elements of the information, with collective agreement by others. It is as imperfect as any source of information, but Wiki's that have "settled" tend to be good unbiased sources of relatively balanced information.
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Re: Gold
Old 04-13-2006, 02:42 PM   #159
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Re: Gold

Ahem, there's a technical exception to Godwin if the comparison is intentionally invoked to end a thread. But as I pointed out before, the whole thing is retarded and should die.

Yes, wikipedia is pretty useful for a lot of stuff. I don't know why some people spend so much effort trying to "debunk" it on various theoretical grounds -- it really exists, and for a huge class of uses it's far better than most other resources. I was trying to be funny before when I said there should be a Wikipedia article that covers the whole thing in a few paragraphs, but I guess I failed. Anyway, there was also meant to be truth behind the joke, and I'm not disappointed!
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Re: Gold
Old 04-13-2006, 02:44 PM   #160
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Re: Gold

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cool Dood
...I don't know why some people spend so much effort trying to "debunk" it on various theoretical grounds -- it really exists, and for a huge class of uses it's far better than most other resources...
Are you referring to Wikipedia or to gold?

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