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Old 04-04-2014, 04:07 PM   #41
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I'm not going to make the case for market timing, but buying on a day when the market is down 2.5% (Nasdaq) is not completely meaningless. Remember what John Bogle taught us - cost matters. If I can buy stock at 2.5% less today than yesterday, I have a 2.5% advantage over anyone who bought the same stock yesterday. We pay attention to figures down to a few basis points in looking at expense ratios. Why completely discount buying on a day when the market is down 250 basis points? Buying on the dips clearly has some merit, even if it is a form of market timing.
Depends on your time horizon to an extent. For example, this philosophy could have easily been used in, say, a bad day in late 2008 when the Dow fell 300 points from 12,000 to 11,700. Sure, it's better than buying the day before would have been, but sometimes it is "catching a plunging dagger".

I care less about getting a "2.5% advantage over those who bought yesterday" than in feeling like the stock is a good buy at the price, whether my intention is day trading, short term holding or long term holding.

If I'm looking at long term fund investing, I'd look at Bogle. If I were buying individual stocks looking for value I'd look to Buffett instead.
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Old 04-04-2014, 04:09 PM   #42
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Early this morning I was within an estimated 0.1% portfolio value increase of selling about 3% of my equity portfolio to raise cash for 2015/2016. Then it all turned south. Guess I need a good market next week. I wouldn't be buying in this market, except for DCA setups like 401k contributions.
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Old 04-04-2014, 04:48 PM   #43
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Originally Posted by Ready View Post
I'm not going to make the case for market timing, but buying on a day when the market is down 2.5% (Nasdaq) is not completely meaningless. Remember what John Bogle taught us - cost matters. If I can buy stock at 2.5% less today than yesterday, I have a 2.5% advantage over anyone who bought the same stock yesterday. We pay attention to figures down to a few basis points in looking at expense ratios. Why completely discount buying on a day when the market is down 250 basis points? Buying on the dips clearly has some merit, even if it is a form of market timing.
OK, I agree with you somewhat, so why don't you contribute to the market timing thread: LOL!'s Market Timing Newsletter It is also important to note when you sell something, too.

Despite the drop today, some things were even cheaper on Monday.
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Old 04-04-2014, 04:56 PM   #44
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The drop is my fault. I finally got around to having my 401k moved over to a Vanguard ira. It only took me 7 years. So the paperwork was faxed over today to liquidate my holdings and go to cash. The market was up at that time. It will probably take them a week or so to post this. And I will get paid the lowest close during that time.
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Old 04-04-2014, 06:29 PM   #45
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The drop is my fault. I finally got around to having my 401k moved over to a Vanguard ira. It only took me 7 years. So the paperwork was faxed over today to liquidate my holdings and go to cash. The market was up at that time. It will probably take them a week or so to post this. And I will get paid the lowest close during that time.
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Old 04-04-2014, 07:25 PM   #46
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My situation is a bit different from some others, so I should probably explain my market timing hobbies. I manage the 401K investments for my partner, who still works full time. I don't like any of the funds in his plan, so I opened a self directed account through Schwab where he can buy any Schwab funds with his 401K money. The problem is that each pay period the money is transferred to a money market fund within his self directed account, and then it's my job to buy index funds with the money. I split all of the money between Total Domestic and Total International Equity funds. And I generally buy these funds twice per month. So my only real efforts at timing are deciding when within the two week period to place the order.

I just like waiting for a down day to buy. I have no illusions that doing so is going to make that big of a difference given the relatively small amount going in each time. But it allows me to dabble a bit in market timing by doing so, and I like to have a little fun with it. But there are no big piles of cash sitting on the sidelines here waiting for a market drop.
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Old 04-04-2014, 10:30 PM   #47
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Seriously?

My initial reaction to the OP.

Some good answers though!

I don't worry about that question anymore thank goodness - just rebalance when things get sufficiently out of whack.
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Old 04-04-2014, 10:32 PM   #48
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The drop is my fault. I finally got around to having my 401k moved over to a Vanguard ira. It only took me 7 years. So the paperwork was faxed over today to liquidate my holdings and go to cash. The market was up at that time. It will probably take them a week or so to post this. And I will get paid the lowest close during that time.
It's always somebody!

Who was it on our FIRE forum who single-handedly cause oil to plunge? Many of us were very grateful.
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