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Old 01-07-2015, 08:07 PM   #21
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Yep - clearly being a much-lauded guru is even more important than pulling down more money each year than you can spend on yourself in a lifetime.
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Old 01-07-2015, 08:08 PM   #22
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One thing I forgot to add after reading this:

Gross’s main fund, Pimco Total Return, trailed 65 percent of peers in 2013, after beating 90 percent of peers in 2012...


I have not followed Gross on the Web nor looked at his performance at Pimco, but as they say, you are only as good as your last year's performance. You could make people money for decades, and one bad year and they call you a loser. He must be doing something right to build his firm's assets to $2 trillion, right?

I remember that even Buffett was said to be losing his Midas touch when he trailed the S&P in 1999-2000. Gee whiz, how could Berkshire stock, any real company for that matter, compete with dot-coms stocks during the bubble of the late 90s? If Thailand's stock index beats the S&P in one year, do we say the US is losing out to Thailand?

I have a neutral view about Gross, and just find it interesting to watch to see how he's doing in his new job.
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Old 01-07-2015, 08:31 PM   #23
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Here's a link to the newsletter https://www.janus.com/bill-gross-investment-outlook
One interesting aspect - he drops names like never before, including implying hedge fund manager Ray Dalio concurs with his call for a drop in equity prices.

His track record on bonds and interest rate calls is good - unlike his calls on equity prices, which is dismal.
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Old 01-07-2015, 08:47 PM   #24
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At the conclusion of his note:
What to consider in such a strange new world? High-quality assets with stable cash flows. Those would include Treasury and high-quality corporate bonds, as well as equities of lightly levered corporations with attractive dividends and diversified revenues both operationally and geographically. With moments of liquidity having already been experienced in recent months, 2015 may see a continuing round of musical chairs as riskier asset categories become less and less desirable.
He did say some stocks will be OK. Does anybody have his list? Seems to me "equities of lightly levered corporations with attractive dividends and diversified revenues" are good for prudent investors at any time, and Gross said that these will even beat the market.

Fine with me. I'll just get more stodgy stocks, the likes that Buffett and Wellesley managers buy.
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Old 01-08-2015, 12:14 AM   #25
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Perhaps a young virgin?
Yet another subtle example of ageism.
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Old 01-08-2015, 04:51 AM   #26
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eventually he will be right. but you may have been alot poorer waiting for that day to come.
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Old 01-08-2015, 06:27 AM   #27
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eventually he will be right. but you may have been alot poorer waiting for that day to come.
Even a broken clock is right twice a day
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Old 01-08-2015, 06:28 AM   #28
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A stopped clock is right twice a day, some broken clocks are never right !


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