Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Good times are over...
Old 01-07-2015, 02:31 PM   #1
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
HFWR's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Lawn chair in Texas
Posts: 12,964
Good times are over...

If you believe Bill Gross...

Bill Gross Says the Good Times Are Over - Bloomberg

Quote:
“When the year is done, there will be minus signs in front of returns for many asset classes,” Gross, 70, wrote in the outlook. “The good times are over.”
Quote:
“While timing the end of a bull market is difficult, the next 12 months will probably see a turning point, Gross wrote. Knowing when the ‘crowd’ has had enough is an often frustrating task, and it behooves an individual with a reputation at stake to stand clear,” he wrote. “As you know, however, moving out of the way has never been my style.”
__________________

__________________
Have Funds, Will Retire

...not doing anything of true substance...
HFWR is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 01-07-2015, 02:39 PM   #2
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas Hill Country
Posts: 42,115
He's been saying "the good times are over" for how many years? Maybe this time he'll be right...

Quote:
it wouldn’t be the first time that Gross has been wrong in calling the bull market dead. Gross called for an exit from Treasurys in 2011, and proclaimed woeful to returns were in the offing in 2012 and 2013.
Bill Gross just called an end to the bull market, again - MarketWatch
__________________

__________________
Numbers is hard

When I hit 70, it hit back

Retired in 2005 at age 58, no pension
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-07-2015, 02:41 PM   #3
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
HFWR's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Lawn chair in Texas
Posts: 12,964
Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo View Post
He's been saying "the good times are over" for how many years? Maybe this time he'll be right...
But numbers is hard timing the end of a bull market is difficult...
__________________
Have Funds, Will Retire

...not doing anything of true substance...
HFWR is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-07-2015, 02:56 PM   #4
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 19,426
What? I thought this bull run will continue forever and ever, because, you know, this time is supposed to be different.

Many pundits, even Bogle, have said that the future return of investments will not be that high. The last few years were great, so if we have to give back some gains, it should not be surprising.

I still pray for the market to be flat though. Flat is good. Down, not good. It hurts my serenity.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that can happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky
NW-Bound is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 01-07-2015, 03:03 PM   #5
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
audreyh1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 16,471
Maybe it's just that the good times are over for Bill Gross!
__________________
Well, I thought I was retired. But it seems that now I'm working as a travel agent instead!
audreyh1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Good times are over...
Old 01-07-2015, 03:06 PM   #6
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
HFWR's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Lawn chair in Texas
Posts: 12,964
Good times are over...

Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound View Post
What? I thought this bull run will continue forever and ever, because, you know, this time is supposed to be different.

Many pundits, even Bogle, have said that the future return of investments will not be that high. The last few years were great, so if we have to give back some gains, it should not be surprising.

I still pray for the market to be flat though. Flat is good. Down, not good. It hurts my serenity.
No argument one way or the other. There are plenty of knowns, unknowns, and unknown knowns and known unknowns that could cause either a temporary or permanent market correction. But I thought there was some irony in one more Bill Gross prognostication, especially given the drubbing he took in bonds...
__________________
Have Funds, Will Retire

...not doing anything of true substance...
HFWR is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-07-2015, 03:08 PM   #7
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
bbbamI's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Dallas 'burb
Posts: 9,039
__________________
There's no need to complicate, our time is short..
bbbamI is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-07-2015, 03:17 PM   #8
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 19,426
Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1 View Post
Maybe it's just that the good times are over for Bill Gross!
Eh, he has not been doing that well, and perhaps his luck is turning.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that can happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky
NW-Bound is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 01-07-2015, 03:20 PM   #9
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
pb4uski's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Vermont & Sarasota, FL
Posts: 16,439
I think the Bond King has lost his Midas touch... quite a long time ago actually.
__________________
If something cannot endure laughter.... it cannot endure.
Patience is the art of concealing your impatience.
Slow and steady wins the race.
pb4uski is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 01-07-2015, 03:23 PM   #10
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
audreyh1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 16,471
Of anything me is looking for a new bond guru, check out the recent presentations and interviews with Jeffrey Gundlach.
__________________
Well, I thought I was retired. But it seems that now I'm working as a travel agent instead!
audreyh1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-07-2015, 03:24 PM   #11
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 11,615
Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound View Post
Eh, he has not been doing that well, and perhaps his luck is turning.
It might be turning--from bad to worse. No signs of malfeasance or funny business yet. A few minutes ago, from WSJ . . .

Most of Money Raised by Bill Gross at Janus Originated From His Financial Advisers’ Brokerage
__________________
"Freedom begins when you tell Mrs. Grundy to go fly a kite." - R. Heinlein
samclem is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 01-07-2015, 03:36 PM   #12
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 19,426
Some investors' money is following him... A pundit can get some followers, so it does not mean anything.

Back on his cred, I certainly hope he is wrong with my AA being 70% in stock. But anything can happen in the market, and I still pray for no worse than flat (flat is +- 5% for me.)
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that can happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky
NW-Bound is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 01-07-2015, 03:46 PM   #13
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
clifp's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 7,450
Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound View Post
Some investors' money is following him... A pundit can get some followers, so it does not mean anything.

Back on his cred, I certainly hope he is wrong with my AA being 70% in stock. But anything can happen in the market, and I still pray for no worse than flat (flat is +- 5% for me.)

Same here, I predicted a -10% drop in the market this year so only -5% would ok with me. As is typical for me, I don't really have enough confidence to sell much stock and my aversion to bonds is well known.

I have been praying to the PenFed Gods that another 5% 10 year CD offering is in the works, or even a 3% 5 year one. I think I need to sacrifice something.
__________________
clifp is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-07-2015, 04:50 PM   #14
Moderator
Walt34's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Eastern WV Panhandle
Posts: 16,544
Quote:
Originally Posted by clifp View Post
I think I need to sacrifice something.
A goat or an ox probably wouldn't cut it though.
__________________
I heard the call to do nothing. So I answered it.
Walt34 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 01-07-2015, 05:29 PM   #15
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 19,426
Would 10% of portfolio be enough? But then, you still lose money with the 5% CD.

Market gods can be generous, but also very punitive against greed.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that can happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky
NW-Bound is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 01-07-2015, 05:46 PM   #16
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Kansas City
Posts: 7,409
No good deed goes unpunished - after 21 years of ER pretty much staying the course ala Bogle and semi-religiously following the 4% (2-6% range) my pals the RMD deduct will make me feel negative for the future unless Mr Market really does wonders.

heh heh heh - I predict my Curmudgeon Certificate and grumpiness will be the order of the day unless I score on one of my few good stocks.
__________________
unclemick is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 01-07-2015, 05:48 PM   #17
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
pb4uski's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Vermont & Sarasota, FL
Posts: 16,439
Quote:
Originally Posted by Walt34 View Post
A goat or an ox probably wouldn't cut it though.
Perhaps a young virgin?
__________________
If something cannot endure laughter.... it cannot endure.
Patience is the art of concealing your impatience.
Slow and steady wins the race.
pb4uski is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 01-07-2015, 07:01 PM   #18
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
grasshopper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,670
Bill Gross thinks he needs OMY until he can retire. Come on Bill 70 YO and still going to the office.
__________________
For me experiences are not good or bad, just different
grasshopper is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-07-2015, 07:04 PM   #19
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 405
Quote:
Originally Posted by pb4uski View Post
Perhaps a young virgin?
A young virgin goat perhaps?
__________________
Luck is when Preparation meets Opportunity.
Closet_Gamer is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-07-2015, 07:52 PM   #20
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 19,426
I guess he still wants to show the world that he's smart. Being rich is just not enough. Have you seen the article about how much he got paid? A cool $290M for him, and $230M for his friend-turned-enemy El-Erian, in just 2013. The amount of money he managed was mind boggling though.

See: Pimco Paid Billionaire Gross $290 Million Bonus in 2013 - Bloomberg.

Excerpts:
Pacific Investment Management Co. paid its former Chief Investment Officer Bill Gross a bonus of about $290 million in 2013, a year in which his Total Return Fund (PTTRX) trailed a majority of peers...

Mohamed El-Erian, 56, the former chief executive officer who previously shared the title of CIO with Gross, received a 2013 bonus of about $230 million...

Gross and El-Erian together were responsible for the firm’s almost $2 trillion in assets as co-CIOs in 2013...

Gross’s main fund, Pimco Total Return, trailed 65 percent of peers in 2013, after beating 90 percent of peers in 2012...
__________________

__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that can happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky
NW-Bound is online now   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Over 4 times as many Android phones activated as babies born daily... Midpack Other topics 1 03-21-2013 02:58 PM
It was the best of times, it was the worst of times... freebird5825 Other topics 32 12-27-2008 10:22 PM
Let the good times roll!! utrecht FIRE and Money 32 10-19-2008 03:59 PM
Good Article in Today's NY Times tomz Health and Early Retirement 15 06-07-2007 12:17 PM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 02:21 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.