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GOOG
Old 06-07-2005, 10:26 PM   #1
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GOOG

The price of Google Inc (GOOG) is 3x of price issued at IPO - would that be nice if you had bought some during the IPO? Analysts say that it's not too late. The stock is poised to rise to $350 soon.
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Re: GOOG
Old 06-07-2005, 11:29 PM   #2
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Re: GOOG

I saw their market cap during their IPO and thought "no way!"....

Guess I was wrong =) Even though I really like Google, I suspect that just like Netscape, they will eventually become assimilated by microsoft's massive (and impressive) R&D.

Don't think there's any way they could pull it off? Check out what some of the teams are working on around the globe-

http://research.microsoft.com
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Re: GOOG
Old 06-07-2005, 11:47 PM   #3
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Re: GOOG

I doubt Google wil be Netscaped by Microsoft. Google is a very innovative company. Everything they do, they do well. Netscape didn't have much in terms of technology innovation. Having said that, it's hard to imagine that the 80B market cap is justified. Then again, ad revenue on the internet is still very small relative to total ad spending, and many expect it to increase as IP technology proliferates.
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Re: GOOG
Old 06-08-2005, 06:11 AM   #4
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Re: GOOG

Quote:
Originally Posted by Spanky
The price of Google Inc (GOOG) is 3x of price issued at IPO - would that be nice if you had bought some during the IPO? Analysts say that it's not too late. The stock is poised to rise to $350 soon.
Hi Spanky,
I was thinking the same thing but I'm trying to own fewer individual stocks these days and when IBM fell to 77 a few weeks ago, I couldn't resist... Then I noticed I do own some GOOG since its a component of Vanguards VEXMX fund!

I think the horse has left the barn on this GOOG thing. Similar with the energy plays. Might still have some ups and downs left but the big profits have already been earned.
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Re: GOOG
Old 06-08-2005, 08:00 AM   #5
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Re: GOOG

If I was forced to invest in Google at the IPO, I would have shorted the stock. Still think it is wickedly overvalued. But what do I know.....

On a side note, their search engine is getting worse and worse....I need to ditch my google search bar and use something else.
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Re: GOOG
Old 06-08-2005, 08:34 AM   #6
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Re: GOOG

I concur that Google is overvalued (P/E = 100?) based on fundamental analysis. Obviously many investors ignore them.

I do almost all searches with google. Is there a better search engine?

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Re: GOOG
Old 06-08-2005, 09:22 AM   #7
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Re: GOOG

Quote:
Originally Posted by Spanky
I do almost all searches with google. Is there a better search engine?
Not that I know of, but if one comes along I'll start using it. My point is that Google is the best, but there's no reason to gague how long it will be the best. At the moment discussions of ad and search optimizing talks about Google and doesn't even mention other search engines. I know other spiders are out there cataloging pages...I can see the hits on my pages and here.

I doubt 3/4 of Ford owners looking for replacements would switch to Toyota within a year or two, but Google could quickly lose that much if MSN or someone else starts serving better results. (Arbitraty numbers generated by me with no basis in experience or fact.) And given the popularity of Google there is much effort to distort their rankings to promote the distorters' sites.

Actually, I don't know how they make the bulk of their revenue. AdWords? Surely they have other revenue streams. I would hazard a guess that the income streams aren't directly tied to their search engine but would suffer greatly if their search engine traffic declined.
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Re: GOOG
Old 06-08-2005, 12:02 PM   #8
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Re: GOOG

When I look at google I get the same feeling I got when people were screaming about internet stocks in the late 90's. I dont see the clear cut business advantage, I dont see the business model that sustains growth that cant easily be taken away. Most of the analysts putting together a statement to explain the growth and predicting higher stock prices sound like they have no idea what they're talking about.

Then I say to myself "Self! You know about high tech and you've run businesses before so you understand both the technology and the business issues. If you dont see it, then either theres no there there (again) or you're just not understanding some key portion of this whole deal".

I'm gonna go with 'no there there'.

Speculation stock. I've owned 'em. Made money. Lost money.
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Re: GOOG
Old 06-08-2005, 12:09 PM   #9
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Re: GOOG

Funny, th. I was just thinking that GOOG today is like a reprisal of 1999. Yesterday CNBC was actually showing GOOG share price in the corner of the screen along with the indexes and oil. Lunacy! It will all end in tears eventually, although it might take a while.
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Re: GOOG
Old 06-08-2005, 12:10 PM   #10
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Re: GOOG

Soooooo when do we start shorting Google?
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Re: GOOG
Old 06-08-2005, 12:19 PM   #11
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Re: GOOG

Yep the good old 'eyeballs and advertising' routine. Funny thing though is I dont think i've ever read an ad on a web site, and i'm damn sure i never bought anything from clicking on a web ad link.

Never even slightly wanted to 'punch the monkey' either.

When do we short? Is it today already or is it still yesterday?
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Re: GOOG
Old 06-08-2005, 12:40 PM   #12
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Re: GOOG

Yeah, GOOG may be pricy and I'm not buying, but it's not exactly the same as 1999. I mean, afterall, Google is profitable right now. That was a pipedream for most Internet companies in the 90's.
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Re: GOOG
Old 06-08-2005, 01:43 PM   #13
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Re: GOOG

The fact that the switching cost is near zero must keep Schmidt awake at night. But they have built a great brand and their products are almost always better than their competition. P/E may be in the clouds now, but their forward P/E is on par with Yahoo. They have demonstrated an ability to do things right. I think there is a lot of opportunity in consumer web services. Wouldn't bet on the stock either way.
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Re: GOOG
Old 06-08-2005, 01:54 PM   #14
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Re: GOOG

Quote:
Originally Posted by th
Yep the good old 'eyeballs and advertising' routine.* Funny thing though is I dont think i've ever read an ad on a web site, and i'm damn sure i never bought anything from clicking on a web ad link.

Never even slightly wanted to 'punch the monkey' either.

When do we short?* Is it today already or is it still yesterday?
I don't like to short companies like GOOG. Its too easy for the market to stay irrational when every idiot is throwing their lunch money into the stock. Better off shorting idiot lenders making no doc, IO, ARM loans to subprime borrowers.
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Re: GOOG
Old 06-08-2005, 03:28 PM   #15
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Re: GOOG

I shorted Amazon.bomb a couple of years back. Made a lucky and quick 15-20%. Let me say lucky again. Problem is you can be right but if your timing is off you are screwed unless you have the $$ to play. Like blackjack. You can make the right calls but not win a hand and unless you have some $$ the trip to Vegas will be a short one.
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Re: GOOG
Old 06-08-2005, 03:32 PM   #16
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Re: GOOG

Oh and never trust a stock with a ticker than can be spelled both ways. Sharks in the water.
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Re: GOOG
Old 06-08-2005, 09:36 PM   #17
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Re: GOOG

Switching cost is indeed pretty low. I used yahoo all the time until altavista started producing better results for me. Stuck with them until google gave me the same thing without a face full of ads and quicker results.

At this point, I'm looking for something other than google. The first page or two is highly seeded with either paid-for-placement sites or these goddamned aggregators who twist your search into something that makes it look like they have what you want, only to try to send you to amazon or some other site while they try to make a referral bonus on it. I almost always flip through the first few pages of a google search before I find the good porn results I was looking for...
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Re: GOOG
Old 06-08-2005, 10:05 PM   #18
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Re: GOOG

Quote:
Originally Posted by th
...or these goddamned aggregators who twist your search into something that makes it look like they have what you want, only to try to send you to amazon or some other site while they try to make a referral bonus on it. I almost always flip through the first few pages of a google search before I find the good porn results I was looking for...
LOL! Just use google pictures, that way you don't get spyware....er so I've heard...I hate those aggregators, google used to be wonderful, they are getting worse all the time. Their goodwill is almost spent, I wouldn't buy at these levels.
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Re: GOOG
Old 06-08-2005, 10:21 PM   #19
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Re: GOOG

Quote:
Originally Posted by brewer12345
I don't like to short companies like GOOG.* Its too easy for the market to stay irrational when every idiot is throwing their lunch money into the stock.
Short shares have risen from 8.7M to 9.6M (as of 10 May) and it'll be interesting to see where they are in June. I bet a few were shaken loose in the last month.

Regardless it's less than an average day's volume. And when 25M shares trade hands like today...

Still, according to its relative strength, this puppy is way overbought. I just wish there was some way to gauge the investor hysteria against its fundamentals.
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Re: GOOG
Old 06-18-2005, 02:32 PM   #20
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Re: GOOG

Alternative source of revenue...google to offer paypal like service
http://www.realtechnews.com/posts/1454
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