Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Re: GOOG = SILLY
Old 11-18-2005, 11:42 AM   #21
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 13,288
Re: GOOG = SILLY

Analysts have a 50% growth rate on this stock... so people think that it will grow into a big company...

The problem with that thinking is there is a limit...

Look at Time... another 'ad' selling company... it has a market cap of 84 billion compared to Google's 113 Billion..
Time has revenue of 43 B while Goog has only 5 B right now... it will take a bit of time to get even with Time...

But, goog has cash flow from operations of $2 B vs Time's $7 B... so a lot closer in the stuff that matters..

I think it is interesting to compare it with GM... with a market cap of $13 B... Ford 15 B, or even Coke at $100 B....
__________________

__________________
Texas Proud is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Re: GOOG = SILLY
Old 11-18-2005, 12:47 PM   #22
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
wildcat's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Lou-evil
Posts: 2,025
Re: GOOG = SILLY

Ha! At a growth rate of 50% GOOG will become the world.
__________________

__________________
"These walls are kind of funny. First you hate 'em, then you get used to 'em. Enough time passes, gets so you depend on them"
wildcat is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: GOOG = SILLY
Old 11-18-2005, 01:05 PM   #23
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 1,505
Re: GOOG = SILLY

Quote:
That's why my emphasis was on P/E, not share price.* Nobody is calling Bekshire Hathaway "A" stock a bubble stock here.
It was on both, actually.* But i address both the share price and the P/E so what does it matter anyway.*

It sounded though like you were making a big deal out of the 400/share.* My point is its not a big deal, because share price is irrelevant.* The company can make the share price whatever they want to make it and adjust the # of shares outstanding accordingly.* *

As long as you can afford one share, then its a viable option for an investor.* One share of 400 dollar stock has as much growth potential as 100 shares of 4 dollar stock.

Quote:
So how many shares will you be buying at this price?
I don't buy individual stocks.* * I only buy mutual funds (which are composed of individual stocks).* I imagine there's a good chance one of them maybe owns some google.* I dont really worry about it.
__________________
azanon is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: GOOG = SILLY
Old 11-18-2005, 01:10 PM   #24
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
thefed's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 2,203
Re: GOOG = SILLY

this thread got me to thinking, and acting, upon the widespread use of google.

I placed an "AD" on google for my new business. I'm paying per-click. It's targeted ONLY to people searching from my general area. Cost will be about $1/click...average 1.7 clicks/day.

we'll see how it goes!
__________________
thefed is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: GOOG = SILLY
Old 11-18-2005, 01:12 PM   #25
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 1,505
Re: GOOG = SILLY

Ive always used Yahoo more than google. I couldn't tell you what makes google better. I do admit, i use google earth, at work in fact.
__________________
azanon is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: GOOG = SILLY
Old 11-18-2005, 01:14 PM   #26
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 13,288
Re: GOOG = SILLY

Quote:
Originally Posted by azanon
It sounded though like you were making a big deal out of the 400/share.* My point is its not a big deal, because share price is irrelevant.* The company can make the share price whatever they want to make it and adjust the # of share outstanding accordingly.* *
Azanon..

Yes, you are right that share price can be 'made' by any company (and I keep telling this to my brother in law about mutual funds)... *BUT..

Since there already is an amount of shares outstanding and they are not going to change that number without some work.. share price DOES matter as it now is the measure of the relative value...

Under you example, let's just divide by 10... then the question would be *"Can you believe GOOG is selling for $$40 per share!!!".. *if you think that the real value is only $10 per share then $40 is WOW, can you believe that!!!

My point.. share price DOES matter in the time period when the number of shares are not changing...
__________________
Texas Proud is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: GOOG = SILLY
Old 11-18-2005, 01:15 PM   #27
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 1,505
Re: GOOG = SILLY

Quote:
Since there already is an amount of shares outstanding and they are not going to change that number without some work.. share price DOES matter as it now is the measure of the relative value...

Under you example, let's just divide by 10... then the question would be* "Can you believe GOOG is selling for $$40 per share!!!"..* if you think that the real value is only $10 per share then $40 is WOW, can you believe that!!!

My point.. share price DOES matter in the time period when the number of shares are not changing...
And your point, which i think goes without saying, is (completely) besides the point i was making.* I believe Laurence was trying to imply that Google is "expensive"/overpriced simply because its selling for 400/share.* * But if there's not many shares outstanding, then one share might represent a very nice chunk of the company.* And if that's the case, then maybe 400/share really isn't all that expensive.

Of course it "matters" in a common sense manner of speaking.* If i have 800 dollars i want to invest, it matters cause i can only buy 2 shares with 800 dollars.* *But isnt that where we all throw in a big, DUH!
__________________
azanon is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: GOOG = SILLY
Old 11-18-2005, 01:42 PM   #28
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
SteveR's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 2,803
Re: GOOG = SILLY

I also believe that some stocks are artificially inflated by a variety of means, which gives the market a distorted image of the real value of the stock. The dot coms in the last 1990s had highly inflated values while many other parts of the market barely moved up in value (by comparison). When the "irrational exuberance" bubble popped...the values fell to what was closer to reality (whatever that is?)

If the market were operating ONLY on supply/demand/financials=value, then it would be pretty simple to find out who the winners and losers are going to be. However, it is not that simple, at least to me. This may be a big DUH to some but I believe it to be key to underlying discussion here.
__________________
Work? I don't have time to work....I'm retired.
SteveR is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: GOOG = SILLY
Old 11-18-2005, 02:02 PM   #29
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 63
Re: GOOG = SILLY

What about craigslist? Did it go public yet Everyone's talking about it...and it is the place to advertise for free!
__________________
acg is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: GOOG = SILLY
Old 11-18-2005, 02:16 PM   #30
Moderator Emeritus
laurence's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: San Diego
Posts: 5,234
Re: GOOG = SILLY

Quote:
Originally Posted by azanon
And your point, which i think goes without saying, is (completely) besides the point i was making.* I believe Laurence was trying to imply that Google is "expensive"/overpriced simply because its selling for 400/share.* * But if there's not many shares outstanding, then one share might represent a very nice chunk of the company.* And if that's the case, then maybe 400/share really isn't all that expensive.

Of course it "matters" in a common sense manner of speaking.* If i have 800 dollars i want to invest, it matters cause i can only buy 2 shares with 800 dollars.* *But isnt that where we all throw in a big, DUH!
Actually, no I wasn't implying it was expensive simply beacuse it is selling at 400 dollars a share, read the next line of my post where I put all those little exlamation mark thingies after the P/E, read my clarifying post where I give an example of a share of a company that has a very high dollar value but I consider to be a less "expensive" stock. *I thought everybody knew different companies offer different numbers of shares, I left that assumption unsaid.

My point was you have to invest $90 to see $1 of return. *Even if Google really did see earnings increase 50% every year, you'd need the stock price to stay flat until something like 2009 to start competing with a money market. *Obviously, markets can behave quite irrationally, so I make no prediction as to how high this stock can go.
__________________
laurence is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: GOOG = SILLY
Old 11-18-2005, 02:18 PM   #31
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 557
Re: GOOG = SILLY

I don't know if Google is worth 90 times earnings. *That is quite high.

OTOH it does seem to have the franchise, and the ability to grow from that franchise. * I remeber when MSFT went public and the same questions were raised and we know where it is. *I also remember numerous other companies that grew, exploded and then flamed out. *We shall see.

Uncledrz
__________________
uncledrz is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: GOOG = SILLY
Old 11-18-2005, 02:19 PM   #32
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
BigMoneyJim's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: DFW
Posts: 2,627
Re: GOOG = SILLY

Quote:
Originally Posted by acg
What about craigslist? Did it go public yet Everyone's talking about it...and it is the place to advertise for free!
Didn't eBay buy Craigslist or a big stake in it?
__________________
BigMoneyJim is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: GOOG = SILLY
Old 11-18-2005, 03:17 PM   #33
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
wildcat's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Lou-evil
Posts: 2,025
Re: GOOG = SILLY

Great companies do not always = great investments. Valuation matters. More importantly a P/CF of 77 is pricey no matter how you dice it. If you didn't get in the stock a long time ago why try it now? On average that's how most people get burned and end up with below avg returns.
__________________
"These walls are kind of funny. First you hate 'em, then you get used to 'em. Enough time passes, gets so you depend on them"
wildcat is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: GOOG = SILLY
Old 11-18-2005, 07:54 PM   #34
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 58
Re: GOOG = SILLY

If I owned Google now, I would sell. You dont have to ride it to the peak. 75% of the peak would be good enough.


__________________
mark is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: GOOG = SILLY
Old 11-18-2005, 09:15 PM   #35
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Spanky's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Minneapolis
Posts: 4,046
Re: GOOG = SILLY

Expectations from Wall Street are high for Google or Yahoo. Any disappointments will trigger a large sell off - get ready for the firwork.
__________________

__________________
May we live in peace and harmony and be free from all human sufferings.
Spanky is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Big Tranches of GOOG Options Vest- New ERs on the Way haha FIRE and Money 19 04-14-2007 06:36 PM
GOOG Spanky FIRE and Money 19 06-18-2005 02:32 PM
Another silly tax question cute fuzzy bunny Other topics 15 02-27-2005 03:37 AM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 08:15 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.