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Old 08-09-2008, 09:49 AM   #21
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Hey, 3-4 weeks ago I said oil was going to drop and the dollar was going up.

Ta da!
What I'm glad to see is that Europe is finally accepting that they are going to face an economic "slowdown." Some of their sactamoneous blather earlier this year is coming back to haunt them. Of course, it's all the USA's fault in their minds. I see Europe starting to cut rates. At that point the dollar will take off and oil will continue to fall. If oil falls enough, I'll be "retired" by my current (and final) employer. I'll get to live off the 6 months of severence pay -- anyone know what Texas unemployment insurance is?

As far as this year's "carnage," I'm only down a little under 5% for the year and, at the worst, down about 8%. As market meltdowns go, that isn't too serious.

As far as the market going nowhere during the last eight years, I'm about double my assets that I had in 2000. That's the joy of a diversified asset allocation. My foreign holdings had really gone up in that period. I've gotten decent interest rates on my fixed income and reinvested all of my dividends. Every year I've moved money from equities to fixed to maintain my desired asset allocation. Even with the downturn of this year, rebalancing today would move only a very small amount from fixed income to equities. Surprisingly, it would all go into foreign equities.

As far as $16,000 goes, I go up or down that amount about 2 or 3 times every week. I really have to stop checking my stocks so often.
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Old 08-09-2008, 09:56 AM   #22
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-- anyone know what Texas unemployment insurance is?
According to their website: Your weekly benefit amount will be between $57 and $378 depending upon the wages you earned.
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Old 08-09-2008, 10:28 AM   #23
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I look at it this way. It could be and someday will be worse Then again I also realize things might get better.
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Old 08-09-2008, 11:14 AM   #24
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-- anyone know what Texas unemployment insurance is?
$378 / wk
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Old 08-09-2008, 12:53 PM   #25
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....
when will it end?
Take cover under your desks, kids!

I thank my lucky stars that only one of my seven financial accounts mails out a monthly statement. That one took only a couple of hundred dollars hit and it contains some equities. To figure the total hit, I would have to do some w*rk, haven't done it yet; may challenge myself to wait until the end of the third quarter. Be an optimist, wear a blindfold. Carry on.
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Old 08-09-2008, 03:08 PM   #26
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$378 / wk
Thanks. Now I can add $9,828 to my FIRE fund. If the dems win big, maybe they'll extend the benefits from 6 months to a year and double my money!

Hopefully, I won't be around there long enough to have the j*b market tank. Right now they're scrambling to hire more of everybody that can credibly pass themselves off to our clients. Project managers are fighting over engineers. Life is good if you consider it's still officially w*rk.

I may have had my last career performance review Friday. I had to interrupt my usual 3 day weekend to appear interested (old habits die hard) and show up for my performance review. I was told that I'm doing so well that the formal reviews will no longer be necessary unless something "comes up." Informal reviews will be less frequent.

This actually has left me with mixed emotions. I have targeted to model myself after "Wally" of Dilbert fame. As a former manager, I can't help but feel that I had successfully achieved marginal effectiveness. Now, I'm told I'm on the high end. Maybe the bar was really this low all the time and I wasted extra effort for years.

At least I was told I'm getting my second 5% raise for the year. Ever since I've been there, come February and August I get a raise whether I want it or not.

All I can say is that once you've decided you're FI things get so much easier. I used to worry about w*rk. Sometimes it's even "fun" now. This forum may need to do an intervention.
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Old 08-09-2008, 03:18 PM   #27
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another $16,000 lost this month!
when will it end?
Hmmm - since my big dog is 85% Target Retirement 2015.

Why I could watch daily - or even more often on something like Yahoo finance.

Just think of the thrills and chills!

heh heh heh - or I could watch the Saint's in season and let those trusty computers auto rebalance, auto transfer my living expenses to VG Prime MM once a year and enter my numbers into Turbo Tax in time for 4/15. .
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Old 08-09-2008, 03:39 PM   #28
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Technical definition of bear market: A period during which common stocks are returned to their rightful owners.
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Old 08-09-2008, 03:46 PM   #29
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I NEVER look at my monthly statements. IMO, planning for ER based on monthly statements is like planning your funeral based on what you did on your wedding night: Much as you'd like to think so, one has absolutely nothing to do with the other.

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Old 08-09-2008, 04:05 PM   #30
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For all those complaining about those big losses: what were you telling us when you had those big gains? Have you lost all of your gains?

ER means having a portfolio able to replicate a year's spending. If you can't stand to watch it lose an occasional year's spending, then that's a pretty good indication that you need a different asset allocation or that you're not ready for the withdrawal phase of your life. It may be worth looking into a different AA or getting a bigger ER portfolio.

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I NEVER look at my monthly statements.
I'm not sure why companies are even paying the postage to mail them out. We get our annual 1099 from Fidelity and everything else is online when I want to look at it... or not.
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Old 08-09-2008, 06:30 PM   #31
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quote from 2B: "As far as $16,000 goes, I go up or down that amount about 2 or 3 times every week. I really have to stop checking my stocks so often"]

Funny thing about that $16K number. When I got it under my bonnet that early retirement was remotely possible that's exactly the number I had saved $16K - June of 1981 (spreadsheets are wonderful). Well, that grew so that by the end of 2002 I was able to do the ER thing and now -you are right- the pile goes up and down that much or more every other day it seems.

Having diversified now for many years I hate to think what would have happened if I had stuck with my first investment back in 1981 _ Gold!
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Old 08-09-2008, 08:47 PM   #32
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Have you lost all of your gains?
Nobody has gained or lost anything until they've sold.
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Old 08-09-2008, 08:50 PM   #33
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Nobody has gained or lost anything until they've sold.
But... but... but... that means I can't count my home equity until I sell it!
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Old 08-09-2008, 08:54 PM   #34
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You can count its value, you just cant count it as a capital gain or loss.
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Old 08-09-2008, 09:10 PM   #35
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You can count its value, you just cant count it as a capital gain or loss.
Well, gosh, now I'll never figure out whether or not to pay off my mortgage...
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Old 08-09-2008, 09:20 PM   #36
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Its a decision you'll need to revisit daily.

I'll meet you at 8am every morning in the sweat lodge.
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