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Gov. S/D, what impact on the markets ?
Old 01-20-2018, 09:51 AM   #1
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Gov. S/D, what impact on the markets ?

OK, just throwing this out for a non political discussion about the potential impacts to the markets of the current gov. shutdown.

Short term shutdown vs medium or long term and consequences.
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Old 01-20-2018, 09:58 AM   #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by frayne View Post
OK, just throwing this out for a non political discussion about the potential impacts to the markets of the current gov. shutdown.

Short term shutdown vs medium or long term and consequences.
Mostly bark and not much bite. If you react to this by selling, watch out for real problems in the future with your own personality affecting your results.
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Old 01-20-2018, 10:04 AM   #3
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I don't really know, but then, I can't figure out what drives the markets for the most part.
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Old 01-20-2018, 10:34 AM   #4
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Studies I have seen suggest .03 percent decline in the week following.
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Old 01-20-2018, 10:46 AM   #5
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The SP500 has a tendency towards a slight dip. You could look it up, as they say......
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/he...wns-2018-01-16

I'm viewing it as a chance to buy on sale.
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Old 01-20-2018, 10:48 AM   #6
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No Impact - unless the shutdown affected the US Postal Service. Shut down that and you shut down commerce.
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Old 01-20-2018, 10:49 AM   #7
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I'd say a short-term s/d will hardly cause a blip, given that the current political impasse is not about spending programs that could hurt businesses. Longer term, hard to say. We weren't investing much in 1995/96, so I don't remember what happened to the markets back then.
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Old 01-20-2018, 10:58 AM   #8
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It depends how long things go on of course, but one effect is that government contractors will earn less revenue this quarter than their previous guidance had suggested, likely causing a hit in their stock prices. Lockheed, Boeing, Northrop, IBM, Booz Allen, Leidos, etc, are all going to be hurt to varying extents. It's hard to tell if it will be felt in the broader market, but there might be some bargains to be had among that group in Q2.

Anyone depending on the government will probably put off larger purchases until it's over. I don't imagine many Federal employees are going out and buying new cars or houses or booking expensive vacations this weekend. If it's a short shutdown and almost everybody gets back pay, then that kind of spending will bounce back quickly. If it goes on for more than one pay period, then I think you're going to see less spending overall and unemployment will start spreading across all kinds of businesses in areas where there's a heavy government or military presence.
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Old 01-20-2018, 11:48 AM   #9
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Well, so far in my neighborhood, I have not seen any anarchists running wild in the streets.

Most of our day-to-day lives are governed more by state and local governments, not the Feds.
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Old 01-20-2018, 12:09 PM   #10
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Buy LOW, sell HIGH.

Govt. shutdown is just noise.

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