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Gov. S/D, what impact on the markets ?
01-20-2018, 08:51 AM
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#1
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Chattanooga
Posts: 3,877
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Gov. S/D, what impact on the markets ?
OK, just throwing this out for a non political discussion about the potential impacts to the markets of the current gov. shutdown.
Short term shutdown vs medium or long term and consequences.
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01-20-2018, 08:58 AM
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#2
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2017
Location: Tellico Village
Posts: 2,607
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Quote:
Originally Posted by frayne
OK, just throwing this out for a non political discussion about the potential impacts to the markets of the current gov. shutdown.
Short term shutdown vs medium or long term and consequences.
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Mostly bark and not much bite. If you react to this by selling, watch out for real problems in the future with your own personality affecting your results.
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Retired May 13th(Friday) 2016 at age 61.
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01-20-2018, 09:04 AM
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#3
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gone traveling
Join Date: Mar 2015
Location: Greenville
Posts: 653
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I don't really know, but then, I can't figure out what drives the markets for the most part.
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01-20-2018, 09:34 AM
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#4
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Miraflores,Peru
Posts: 1,992
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Studies I have seen suggest .03 percent decline in the week following.
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01-20-2018, 09:46 AM
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#5
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: May 2015
Location: Charleston, SC
Posts: 534
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The SP500 has a tendency towards a slight dip. You could look it up, as they say......
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/he...wns-2018-01-16
I'm viewing it as a chance to buy on sale.
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He who thinks he 'knows it all' has a very limited understanding of the word ALL.
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01-20-2018, 09:48 AM
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#6
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 2,605
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No Impact - unless the shutdown affected the US Postal Service. Shut down that and you shut down commerce.
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Only got A dimple, would have preferred 2!
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01-20-2018, 09:49 AM
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#7
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 12,597
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I'd say a short-term s/d will hardly cause a blip, given that the current political impasse is not about spending programs that could hurt businesses. Longer term, hard to say. We weren't investing much in 1995/96, so I don't remember what happened to the markets back then.
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01-20-2018, 09:58 AM
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#8
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: Coronado
Posts: 3,672
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It depends how long things go on of course, but one effect is that government contractors will earn less revenue this quarter than their previous guidance had suggested, likely causing a hit in their stock prices. Lockheed, Boeing, Northrop, IBM, Booz Allen, Leidos, etc, are all going to be hurt to varying extents. It's hard to tell if it will be felt in the broader market, but there might be some bargains to be had among that group in Q2.
Anyone depending on the government will probably put off larger purchases until it's over. I don't imagine many Federal employees are going out and buying new cars or houses or booking expensive vacations this weekend. If it's a short shutdown and almost everybody gets back pay, then that kind of spending will bounce back quickly. If it goes on for more than one pay period, then I think you're going to see less spending overall and unemployment will start spreading across all kinds of businesses in areas where there's a heavy government or military presence.
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01-20-2018, 10:48 AM
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#9
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: West of the Mississippi
Posts: 17,171
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Well, so far in my neighborhood, I have not seen any anarchists running wild in the streets.
Most of our day-to-day lives are governed more by state and local governments, not the Feds.
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Comparison is the thief of joy
The worst decisions are usually made in times of anger and impatience.
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01-20-2018, 11:09 AM
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#10
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Oct 2016
Location: Pinetops
Posts: 521
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Buy LOW, sell HIGH.
Govt. shutdown is just noise.
I
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