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Great decade so far ... 2018 ?
12-13-2017, 05:07 PM
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#1
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2006
Location: west coast, hi there!
Posts: 8,809
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Great decade so far ... 2018 ?
Here is my updated decade plot. So far it's been a smooth decade to be retired (blue line is 2010's, i.e. 2010 through Nov 2017).
Next year is anybody's guess. Since I want a smooth ride up I'll vote for that. 
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12-13-2017, 05:51 PM
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#2
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Atlanta Suburb
Posts: 1,499
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As always, thank you. The trend is our friend. I hope!
__________________
"Oh, twice as much ain't twice as good
And can't sustain like one half could
It's wanting more that's gonna send me to my knees" - John Mayer
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12-13-2017, 06:55 PM
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#3
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
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Join Date: Mar 2016
Posts: 8,968
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Woohoo! Look at the 50's, the fabulous 50's the decade I was born.
Post war boom baby boom! Pedal to the metal, go for the gold -
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12-13-2017, 08:06 PM
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#4
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
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Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 47,500
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I am excited about 2018!! The market is charging upwards and I visualize it as having lots of momentum at this point. Who knows what we will see? I can hardly wait to find out.
Financially and mentally prepared for a monstrous bear, just in case.... but happily anticipating the best ever.
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities. - - H. Melville, 1851.
Happily retired since 2009, at age 61. Best years of my life by far!
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12-13-2017, 08:08 PM
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#5
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
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Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
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Oh man - I guess we're three years away from a market crash?
__________________
Retired since summer 1999.
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12-13-2017, 08:12 PM
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#6
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2016
Location: DC area
Posts: 2,495
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I've never seen this one before. Cool graph bro!
__________________
FI and Semi-ER March 24, 2017
Consulting to stay engaged
"All models are wrong, some are useful." - George Box
“There is always a well-known solution to every human problem: neat, plausible, and wrong.” - H.L. Mencken
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12-13-2017, 08:15 PM
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#7
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2016
Location: DC area
Posts: 2,495
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 Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1
Oh man - I guess we're three years away from a market crash?
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Or on a macro scale two decades? Notice:
40s bad
50s good
60s good
70s bad
80s good
90s good
00s bad
10s good
20s (good?)
30s (bad?)
__________________
FI and Semi-ER March 24, 2017
Consulting to stay engaged
"All models are wrong, some are useful." - George Box
“There is always a well-known solution to every human problem: neat, plausible, and wrong.” - H.L. Mencken
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12-13-2017, 08:37 PM
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#8
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Laurel, MD
Posts: 8,327
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Quote:
Originally Posted by W2R
I am excited about 2018!! The market is charging upwards and I visualize it as having lots of momentum at this point. Who knows what we will see? I can hardly wait to find out.
Financially and mentally prepared for a monstrous bear, just in case.... but happily anticipating the best ever.
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IOW, "whee"?
__________________
...with no reasonable expectation for ER, I'm just here auditing the AP class.Retired 8/1/15.
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12-14-2017, 04:40 AM
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#9
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2015
Location: Michigan
Posts: 5,003
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Quote:
Or on a macro scale two decades? Notice:
40s bad
50s good
60s good
70s bad
80s good
90s good
00s bad
10s good
20s (good?)
30s (bad?)
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That's the pattern I saw, but homo sapiens are programmed to see patterns even if there are none. Be nice if it holds, though.
__________________
"The mountains are calling, and I must go." John Muir
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12-14-2017, 07:17 AM
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#10
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
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Join Date: May 2006
Location: west coast, hi there!
Posts: 8,809
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I love patterns but unfortunately they do not foretell the future (I think). There is nothing particularly special about a decade.
It is just "calandarism" ... a word which I invented just now.
Still we speak of history in decades and it is a useful construct to remember historical events.
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12-14-2017, 08:02 AM
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#11
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gone traveling
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 3,508
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lsbcal
I love patterns but unfortunately they do not foretell the future (I think). There is nothing particularly special about a decade.
It is just "calandarism" ... a word which I invented just now. |
It's spelled "calendarism". (You would think the inventor would know that!  )
I agree. There's nothing magic about arbitrary ten year periods. Nothing other than the calendar starts or stops on the boundaries of those periods.
And do decades start at XXX0 or XXX1?
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12-14-2017, 08:31 AM
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#12
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 1,324
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We retired in 2010. The "we retired" part is the great thing. The luck of the '10's decade has been the icing on the cake.
__________________
We are, as I have said, one equation short. – Keynes
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12-14-2017, 08:37 AM
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#13
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Atlanta Suburb
Posts: 1,499
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lsbcal
I love patterns but unfortunately they do not foretell the future (I think). There is nothing particularly special about a decade.
It is just "calandarism" ... a word which I invented just now.
Still we speak of history in decades and it is a useful construct to remember historical events. |
Dang, if it persists I was going to suggest we call it, Lsbcal's Law".
__________________
"Oh, twice as much ain't twice as good
And can't sustain like one half could
It's wanting more that's gonna send me to my knees" - John Mayer
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12-14-2017, 08:52 AM
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#14
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Jan 2014
Location: Austin
Posts: 661
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I remember looking back at VG Wellington past performance and seeing many years during the 80's and 90's with returns in the 20's and even 30 percent range - 1995 was almost 33%.
I'd be happy to have one or two years of that
__________________
ER'd 6/1/2014 @ age 53. Wow, is it already 2022?
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12-14-2017, 08:59 AM
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#15
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2006
Location: west coast, hi there!
Posts: 8,809
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Quote:
Originally Posted by flintnational
Dang, if it persists I was going to suggest we call it, Lsbcal's Law". |
That sounds very sweet to my ears. OK, let the pattern persist into the 2020's. 
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12-14-2017, 09:18 AM
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#16
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2016
Location: DC area
Posts: 2,495
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lsbcal
I love patterns but unfortunately they do not foretell the future (I think). There is nothing particularly special about a decade.
It is just "calandarism" ... a word which I invented just now.
Still we speak of history in decades and it is a useful construct to remember historical events. |
Hey, don't call me a calendar-ist
__________________
FI and Semi-ER March 24, 2017
Consulting to stay engaged
"All models are wrong, some are useful." - George Box
“There is always a well-known solution to every human problem: neat, plausible, and wrong.” - H.L. Mencken
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12-14-2017, 09:34 AM
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#17
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
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Quote:
Originally Posted by USGrant1962
Or on a macro scale two decades? Notice:
40s bad
50s good
60s good
70s bad
80s good
90s good
00s bad
10s good
20s (good?)
30s (bad?)
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I just noticed us tracking the 1990s, and you know how that ended!
__________________
Retired since summer 1999.
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12-14-2017, 09:42 AM
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#18
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 47,500
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joeea
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lsbcal
I love patterns but unfortunately they do not foretell the future (I think). There is nothing particularly special about a decade.
It is just "calandarism" ... a word which I invented just now. |
It's spelled "calendarism". (You would think the inventor would know that! ) |
Maybe we could call this version of Lsbcal's Law, "colandarism":
After all, we are going through the data with a mathematical sieve, looking for some sort of predictability or meaning in all of this. 
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities. - - H. Melville, 1851.
Happily retired since 2009, at age 61. Best years of my life by far!
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12-14-2017, 10:16 AM
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#19
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2016
Posts: 4,663
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Great graphs, thanks! The financial advisor my former employer uses thinks we're in the early years of a 17 year bull market. Hope he's right!
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12-14-2017, 11:58 AM
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#20
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 1,544
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lsbcal
I love patterns but unfortunately they do not foretell the future (I think). There is nothing particularly special about a decade.
It is just "calandarism" ... a word which I invented just now.
Still we speak of history in decades and it is a useful construct to remember historical events. |
"dec·ade
[ˈdekād]
NOUN
decades (plural noun)
- a period of ten years.
- a set, series, or group of ten, in particular."
I guess we could cherry pick any starting year for our "decade" to get the results we want.
__________________
-Big Dawg-FI since 9/2010. Failed ER in 2015. 2/15/2023=DONE! "Blow that dough"-Robbie
" People say I'm lazy, dreaming my life away Well, they give me all kinds of advice designed to enlighten me When I tell them that I'm doing fine watching shadows on the wall "Don't you miss the big time, boy. You're no longer on the ball" -John Lennon-
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