Half year FIRE portfolio status

[Mr._johngalt]

We're up 2.5% so far...if we see another 2.5% I might call it quits in January! 

Cb

I don't quite understand this. The decision hangs on whether you pick up another 2.5% by January? Why? I can't see why 2.5% up or down would have any real impact. I could spend 2.5% of my total NW (not much)
and hardly notice it. I certainly wouldn't let such a small move effect my
ER planning. You should control the timing, not some future unknown and
uncontrollable event.

JG

 

[Cb]

I don't quite understand this.  The decision hangs on whether you pick up another 2.5% by January?  Why?  I can't see why 2.5% up or down would have any real impact.  I could spend 2.5% of my total NW (not much)
and hardly notice it.  I certainly wouldn't let such a small move effect my
ER planning.  You should control the timing, not some future unknown and
uncontrollable event.

JG

I agree that 2.5% is noise. I'm quite confident I'm good to go now, but will cantinue to work until Jan 3 because:

- it gets me a few more quarters of SS contributions

- it gets me a few more % in pension entitlements

- we're saving ~$8K/month now

- those three items, plus a few % of market return get's us safely into the magic 95% safe number per FIREcalc. In my "How This Is All Going To Work" opus to my wife I mentioned that a

95% SWR x 95% last survivor mortality* = > 99% effective SWR.

*55 years for us

Believe me, it WOULD matter to my wife if I punched out a few months early on the "Magic Number"

- it gets me 5 new weeks of vacation (I haven't used any vacation time this year, so between vacation entitlement, holidays, maybe a few mental health days, cable guy appointments, runny nose days, etc, I'm looking at a pretty nice % of work days/off-days at this point)

- I might have a bit more clarity on the appropriate amount of reduction I should use for our SSI entitlements by January. (I'm chopping SSA projections by 25% in my spreadsheet now, but I think that's probably a bit too conservative. I'm 45 now and figure on a ~$65K income in retirement, and I can't imagine the AARP letting Congress cut bennies to members of the massive boomer generation struggling to get by on mere $65K by 25%. What I think might happen is we get a half-a$$ed solution in 2005-2006, and have to do it all over agian in 10-15 years. By the time the next SS "fix" takes place we'll probably be in the "hands-off" (>55 or 60) age group. So I think '05-'06 solution is worth knowing. If Congress can't get it's act together by January I'll be comfortable punching out based on the 25% whack.

- my current workload is manageable, the projects are fairly interesting (maybe another patent award or two), and I don't foresee any uncomfortable encounters with any upper mgmttypes who matter in the next several months.

- it allows me to exercise my remaining stock options in '06, getting away from 2005 AMT

Does that help?

Cb

 

[malakito]

- it allows me to exercise my remaining stock options in '06, getting away from 2005 AMT

Does that help?

Cb   

Not that it particularly matters much...if I were to leave my company voluntarily without incentive (I'm actually leaving with incentive, but anyway...) I would have I think, 3 or 6 months after I left to exercise options (subject to their expiry dates, of course). You don't have something similar?

malakito.

 

[Cb]

I don't think so...I'm pretty sure they expire immediately upon resignation.

Additonally, our bosses gets a notification whenever we exercise anything...and there's no benefit in tipping my hand prior to giving my notice, right?

Cb

 

[Nords]

I am interested in checking out the west coast. As well as Tennesse and a couple of other places. The reason I am interested in Hawaii is Hawaiin time seems to move slower than normal.    Thanks Mike

The difference between Hawaii and all those other places is winter.

I think winter weather makes time move a lot more slowly.

 

[wabmester]

How about California (the Bay Area, Southern Cal) or Seattle (very close to Vancouver)? These places have strong Asian communities.

Agreed about SoCal and Vancouver, but have you ever been to Seattle, Spanky? Asians stand out like a sore thumb here. I'm not sure why it is, but it might be because Washington and Oregon have a pretty ugly history wrt discriminating against Asians. They chased the Chinese out of the area after enslaving them to build the railways here. They chased the Filipino farm workers out during the 30's. And remember the Japanese internment during WW-II? That started in the Pacific Northwest.

Lots of Scandanavians here though.

 

[retire@40]

Net worth excluding real estate but including added savings from earned income is up 9.09% through 6/30.  My portfolio return was in the 3% range.  I'm still in the accumulation phase, so the only number that is important to me is net worth.

 

[Jarhead*]

Mike,

How about California (the Bay Area, Southern Cal) or Seattle (very close to Vancouver)? These places have strong Asian communities.

Spanky

Hell, Spanky, I've lived in Calif. all my life, we like everybody out here. (Unless you're an a--hole, and that can come in any shape and color)

Jarhead

 

[haha]

Agreed about SoCal and Vancouver, but have you ever been to Seattle, Spanky?   Asians stand out like a sore thumb here. Lots of Scandanavians here though. 

This may be because of where you live. In Bellevue and Seattle any well behaved person is very welcome. I have lived in various communities in WA over for 30 years, and I don't think I have ever heard a disparaging remark about an Asian.

Ha

 

[laurence]

Seattle is an awesome city, if you are into culture. I like San Fran, but it's just so costly. Portland is quieter, but still very high on my list. I haven't seen anything more beautiful than the pacific northwest.

 

[wabmester]

This may be because of where you live. In Bellevue and Seattle any well behaved person is very welcome. I have lived in various communities in WA over for 30 years, and I don't think I have ever heard a disparaging remark about an Asian.

I didn't say that Asians are disparaged around here (although they certainly were historically), just that I wouldn't consider the area as having a strong Asian community compared to places like SoCal, Vancouver, SF, etc.   In my county, I believe Asians represent around 5% of the population.   That gets higher in the metro areas of Seattle: around 13%.

Compare that to, say, Irvine CA (where my wife is from).    UC Irvine is 54% Asian.   The surrounding city of Irvine is 30% Asian.    And places like Garden Grove and Westminster have even higher concentrations of Asians.    And the food is good too. 

 

[Spanky]

Agreed about SoCal and Vancouver, but have you ever been to Seattle, Spanky?
Lots of Scandanavians here though.

Wab,

I have but only on business. I am sadden by the proliferation of prejudice against Asians. We have a distant relative living in Seattle and he has not mentioned any racial issue. We have a heavy population of Scandanavians in Minnesota also.

Spnaky

 

[Spanky]

Hell, Spanky, I've lived in Calif. all my life, we like everybody out here. (Unless you're an a--hole, and that can come in any shape and color)

Jarhead

Hi Jarhead,

I really like California because of the climate and diversity, not to mention that my parents, one bother and one sister lving in the Bay Area, another borther living in Glendale, and a few friends living in Orange County. California also has some of the best universities, e.g., Standford, Cal, UCLA, Southern Cal, Cal Tech and so on. I am ecouraging my daughters to attend one of those colleges and stay in California after graduation. Because of her high PSAT score, she has recieved a few invites from those universities.

Spanky

 

[Jarhead*]

Hi Jarhead,

I really like California because of the climate and diversity, not to mention that my parents, one bother and one sister lving in the Bay Area, another borther living in Glendale, and a few friends living in Orange County. California also has some of the best universities, e.g., Standford, Cal, UCLA, Southern Cal, Cal Tech and so on. I am ecouraging my daughters to attend one of those colleges and stay in California after graduation. Because of her high PSAT score, she has recieved a few invites from those universities.

Spanky

Spanky: That's wonderful that your daughters are getting invites from our Universities. They would probably be very happy, and do well out here, and having relatives in close proximity would probably make you feel better.

Calif. has problems like any state does, but all in all I'd never live any other place. (Especially for young folks.)

Jarhead

 

[Mr._johngalt]

Hi Jarhead,

I really like California because of the climate and diversity, not to mention that my parents, one bother and one sister lving in the Bay Area, another borther living in Glendale, and a few friends living in Orange County. California also has some of the best universities, e.g., Standford, Cal, UCLA, Southern Cal, Cal Tech and so on. I am ecouraging my daughters to attend one of those colleges and stay in California after graduation. Because of her high PSAT score, she has recieved a few invites from those universities.

Spanky

Hello Spanky.  Sorry to hear you have a "bother" in the Bay Area.
Guess every family has one  somewhere  

JG

 

[Spanky]

JG,

A spell checker option for the editor would have been nice.

Spanky

 

[MJ]

Hello Spanky. Sorry to hear you have a "bother" in the Bay Area.
Guess every family has one somewhere
JG

JG,

Are you getting careless in your old age, you forgot about "borther".

If you are going correct posters on minor errors then at least do a proper job.

 

[preben]

You bloody Americans have highjacked my thread into something about relocation for Asians and Scandinaviens!

Bum; yes those divvies and that interest(bonds) is also about half of my return YTD. Cheers!

Ben, a Scandinavian living in Asia

I'm also grateful for the help divvies have given my port for the 1st half! I'm up 2.2% Which I suppose is pretty darn good considering the quote from a NYSE trader on CNN, "Flat is the new up." 


BUM

 

[snowbird]

Just checked:  Quicken says 3.75% from 1/1/05 to 6/30/05.  This is higher than the S&P500 because my company stock (which I am whittling down but right now is perhaps 6% of my portfolio) is allegedly up 52% over that same period.

malakito.

Malakito,

What company stock do you own that's up 52% ytd?

 

[unclemick]

Ben

My 88 year old Mom could come up with some good Finn swear words - classier than 'bloody'. Bad habit - I worked with a lot of Brit/Commonwealth engineers over my working years and found myself - 'bloody' this and that a few times - instead of the good old American 'fricking' ah er you know.

My fricking (heh, heh, heh) Vanguard portfolio is only up 1.5% for six month's. I only mark my DRIP's to market around tax time - up or down ? - one or the other.

P.S. - What's Thai for bloody this or that?

 

[OldAgePensioner]

ben,
is that, bloody "L" ? I always wondered why the letter L was so often used in Brit slagging.

 

[WilliamG]

Quicken says 4.44% over Jan-Jun with total portfolio (50/50 stock/nonstock) and 2.9% if I remove the single stock we own (my previous employer Duke Energy).

 

[malakito]

Malakito,

What company stock do you own that's up 52% ytd?

HPQ. According to a site I just checked, it's actually up only 15.8%; I think Quicken must be including the YTD performance of my HPQ options as well to arrive at the 52% figure.

malakito

 

[Martha]

Ben

My 88 year old Mom could come up with some good Finn swear words - classier than 'bloody'. Bad habit - I worked with a lot of Brit/Commonwealth engineers over my working years and found myself - 'bloody' this and that a few times - instead of the good old American 'fricking' ah er you know.

The old women in my community would mumble "saatana perkele". Sound like your grandmother? Anything else I would type is too far from classy.

 

[unclemick]

Yep

She confirms - Grandma used the term all the time. Something involving 'the devil/satan'. The next generation went straight to various uses of the 'p' word.

I think bloody L - refers to the Loo - even worse than plain 'bloody'.

The SO is fond of 'sugar beets' - don't know where she got that.

I just swear - being male and all that. 'Fricking' is only for polite posting purposes.