Originally Posted by ls99
Read the story. I am not a trader. It looks to me like some invention of the mind looking in hindsight for some explanation of some pattern.
Brings to mind the book Popular Delusions and Madness of Crowds. And the one The Wall Street Gang.
But if it makes money for some, I am sure it is a great system.
I offered up a few links to help those interested in understanding what is meant by a secular market. I know that my own education in these matters is lacking, and I usually have to search for more data, to make sure my assumptions are somewhere in the range of reason.
The article by Doug Short was an attempt at explaining the different view points about bull and bear. On financial boards he seems to be well respected as an author, and does not go into crystal ball territory. Like any good writer, he leaves certain challenges up to the reader, if they are looking for understanding.
The conclusion I drew from the well-illustrated article was that as more time passes, one can look back on the data and say, yeah, that was where secular bear began, and that is where the secular bull began. However, at this juncture, it is not so simple to project where this cyclical bull will end.
I've seen this picture, or very similar, many times. However, in this case a light bulb went on for me. It also reminded me that secular, with regard to markets, means "long period of time." I know that from my own upbringing, secular meant "worldly." Now it is clearer to me that secular also means "of time," and contrasts with eternal. Nuff said.
Most market/economy discussions interest me, as I have money in the game. I realize there is a lot of noise, and feel confident in my own signal-to-noise filtering abilities. YMMV.