Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Has FIRECalc ever let you down?
Old 06-04-2009, 07:55 AM   #1
Moderator Emeritus
Rich_by_the_Bay's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: San Francisco
Posts: 8,827
Has FIRECalc ever let you down?

I am a big FC fan and find it to be the best retirement calculator I have personally used. Of course, the data you enter can easily be wrong and then the results would be misleading or dangerous to your planning. Inflation is a good example -- just a 1% error can change your success rate considerably. Many of us run numerous scenarios under a wide range of assumptions to partially accommodate that margin of error (kind of a poor man's sensitivity analysis).

Has FC has ever misled you, been wrong in its logic, or revealed errors, deficiencies, or assumptions which might have led to serious planning errors, even though your input was acceptable to you? I'm especially interested in the experience of those already FIREd who relied on FC to guide the decision. Has it been as infallible as it seems to be?

For the record, I have not run into such deficiencies myself -- unexpected results were usually due to my input errors.
__________________
Rich
San Francisco Area
ESR'd March 2010. FIRE'd January 2011.

As if you didn't know..If the above message contains medical content, it's NOT intended as advice, and may not be accurate, applicable or sufficient. Don't rely on it for any purpose. Consult your own doctor for all medical advice.
Rich_by_the_Bay is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 06-04-2009, 08:55 AM   #2
Moderator Emeritus
W2R's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 47,468
I am not yet retired, but just wanted to caution people not to base their retirement finances solely on ANY calculator. FIRECALC is the best one I have seen, but I only use it as a double-check. I think the kind of sensitivity analysis that you refer to is one of the best uses for FIRECALC, rather than using it to determine how much to spend.

Personally I worry that FIRECALC is too optimistic with my portfolio. It always seems to give me more money to spend than I think would be prudent.
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities. - - H. Melville, 1851.

Happily retired since 2009, at age 61. Best years of my life by far!
W2R is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-04-2009, 09:27 AM   #3
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Bikerdude's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 1,901
I use FC primarily to validate my retirement scenario assumptions. I use other calculators, including Monte Carlo and my own spreadsheets to compare results. I always use the historical inflation rates canned in FC so I have to trust they are representative of what will occur in the future. FC has not, to my knowledge, given me false results however I will probably never be able to verify it. This is because personally I do not have the stomach to follow the FC SWR during market turmoil like we have recently experienced. I also include a "cushion" on top of the FC amount that shows 100%+ success rate. I have, and will not hesitate, in the future to cut my SWR or defer unnecessary expenditures until market conditions improve.

FC is a tool, that when combined with others, gives you the confidence to take that step into retirement. That being said, I would caution anyone who believes their retirement will ultimately pan out precisely as it does on paper.
__________________
“I guess I should warn you, if I turn out to be particularly clear, you've probably misunderstood what I've said” Alan Greenspan
Bikerdude is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-04-2009, 09:29 AM   #4
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 50,000
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rich_in_Tampa View Post
Has FC has ever misled you, been wrong in its logic, or revealed errors, deficiencies, or assumptions which might have led to serious planning errors, even though your input was acceptable to you? I'm especially interested in the experience of those already FIREd who relied on FC to guide the decision. Has it been as infallible as it seems to be?
I'll let you know in 20 years or so.
__________________
Numbers is hard
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-04-2009, 09:30 AM   #5
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Sarah in SC's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Charleston, SC
Posts: 13,566
I'll let you know when we show up like dirty hippies in the Airstream on your doorstep, looking for a meal and a shower.
__________________
“One day your life will flash before your eyes. Make sure it's worth watching.”
Gerard Arthur Way

Sarah in SC is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-04-2009, 09:33 AM   #6
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 50,000
This sounds like a question asked by someone in the last 90 days leading up to pulling the plug...
__________________
Numbers is hard
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-04-2009, 09:34 AM   #7
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 4,764
Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo View Post
This sounds like a question asked by someone in the last 90 days leading up to pulling the plug...

Sure does! might need to change his sig to 95.7893% retired
Notmuchlonger is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-04-2009, 09:41 AM   #8
Moderator Emeritus
Rich_by_the_Bay's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: San Francisco
Posts: 8,827
Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo View Post
This sounds like a question asked by someone in the last 90 days leading up to pulling the plug...
Well, a little more cushion never hurt anyone .
__________________
Rich
San Francisco Area
ESR'd March 2010. FIRE'd January 2011.

As if you didn't know..If the above message contains medical content, it's NOT intended as advice, and may not be accurate, applicable or sufficient. Don't rely on it for any purpose. Consult your own doctor for all medical advice.
Rich_by_the_Bay is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-04-2009, 09:43 AM   #9
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
bbbamI's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Collin County, TX
Posts: 9,293
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rich_in_Tampa View Post
Well, a little more cushion never hurt anyone .
I like that attitude.....
__________________
There's no need to complicate, our time is short..
bbbamI is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-04-2009, 09:44 AM   #10
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 50,000
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rich_in_Tampa View Post
Well, a little more cushion never hurt anyone .
That's the same line I used on DW when she asked "Does this dress make my butt look big?" Hope you do better with it than I did...
__________________
Numbers is hard
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-04-2009, 09:57 AM   #11
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Sarah in SC's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Charleston, SC
Posts: 13,566
Whooooo, that REWahoo needs to change his name to RandyWahoo after some of these posts the last few days! Sassy! Has the young wife been putting something in your coffee?
__________________
“One day your life will flash before your eyes. Make sure it's worth watching.”
Gerard Arthur Way

Sarah in SC is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-04-2009, 09:59 AM   #12
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 50,000
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sarah in SC View Post
Has the young wife been putting something in your coffee?
Yes, but if I detect even the slightest hint of arsenic I don't drink it.
__________________
Numbers is hard
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-04-2009, 10:00 AM   #13
Gone but not forgotten
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Sarasota,fl.
Posts: 11,447
After the meltdown I reran firecalc with my new portfolio and it still gave me 100% safe so I hope it's correct or maybe it just did want to see a grown woman cry .
Moemg is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-04-2009, 02:56 PM   #14
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Rustic23's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Lake Livingston, Tx
Posts: 4,203
I am not sure how anyone would know if FC has let them down. The market is down, FC said it may go down some years, FC said it would recover soon enough and fast enough so ones retirement would be OK for a 25 or 30 year period. Now I don't know how long FC has been around but I doubt 25 years. So, I don't see how enough time has passed. Now if FC said you would be OK, and you are now broke, that may be a different story. So far, I have not heard any such stories here.
__________________
If it is after 5:00 when I post I reserve the right to disavow anything I posted.
Rustic23 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-04-2009, 03:10 PM   #15
Moderator Emeritus
W2R's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 47,468
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rustic23 View Post
I am not sure how anyone would know if FC has let them down. The market is down, FC said it may go down some years, FC said it would recover soon enough and fast enough so ones retirement would be OK for a 25 or 30 year period. Now I don't know how long FC has been around but I doubt 25 years. So, I don't see how enough time has passed. Now if FC said you would be OK, and you are now broke, that may be a different story. So far, I have not heard any such stories here.
I may be completely out of line, because I am not familiar with Firecalc and have not seen the code. Still, if Firecalc gives you a 100% probability of success, I would suggest that the best interpretation of that is that given what the market has done historically, you would not have failed given your parameters in those market conditions.

Although this gives you a pretty good idea of where you stand, I would not interpret this output in a predictive sort of way since (as far as I know) the model is based on historical data, not on simulated data based on market predictions.

So, I still would not think that Firecalc had let me down, even if it gave me 100% probability of success and I was now broke (which thank heavens, is not my situation). OK, maybe I am quibbling over minutia.
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities. - - H. Melville, 1851.

Happily retired since 2009, at age 61. Best years of my life by far!
W2R is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-04-2009, 03:45 PM   #16
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Bikerdude's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 1,901
Quote:
Originally Posted by Want2retire View Post
I may be completely out of line, because I am not familiar with Firecalc and have not seen the code. Still, if Firecalc gives you a 100% probability of success, I would suggest that the best interpretation of that is that given what the market has done historically, you would not have failed given your parameters in those market conditions.

Although this gives you a pretty good idea of where you stand, I would not interpret this output in a predictive sort of way since (as far as I know) the model is based on historical data, not on simulated data based on market predictions.

So, I still would not think that Firecalc had let me down, even if it gave me 100% probability of success and I was now broke (which thank heavens, is not my situation). OK, maybe I am quibbling over minutia.
I agree with W2R. You input your retirement $ amount, asset allocation and time period of your planned retirement and FC runs a rolling time analysis based on historical market performance back to 1871. So if you input 30 years, it compares success rates based on you retiring in every year since 1871 for a 30 year period. That's a lot of different 30 yr. retirements when many good and bad things happened.
__________________
“I guess I should warn you, if I turn out to be particularly clear, you've probably misunderstood what I've said” Alan Greenspan
Bikerdude is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-04-2009, 04:52 PM   #17
Moderator Emeritus
Nords's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Oahu
Posts: 26,855
Quote:
(11% retired)
Did I miss an earlier announcement? Didn't that use to say "10%"?
__________________
*

Co-author (with my daughter) of “Raising Your Money-Savvy Family For Next Generation Financial Independence.”
Author of the book written on E-R.org: "The Military Guide to Financial Independence and Retirement."

I don't spend much time here— please send a PM.
Nords is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-04-2009, 05:00 PM   #18
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 50,000
Inflation.
__________________
Numbers is hard
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-04-2009, 05:09 PM   #19
Moderator Emeritus
Rich_by_the_Bay's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: San Francisco
Posts: 8,827
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nords View Post
Did I miss an earlier announcement? Didn't that use to say "10%"?
It changed months ago. I started making rounds 15 minutes later than before.
__________________
Rich
San Francisco Area
ESR'd March 2010. FIRE'd January 2011.

As if you didn't know..If the above message contains medical content, it's NOT intended as advice, and may not be accurate, applicable or sufficient. Don't rely on it for any purpose. Consult your own doctor for all medical advice.
Rich_by_the_Bay is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-04-2009, 05:17 PM   #20
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Sarah in SC's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Charleston, SC
Posts: 13,566
You rebel doc, you! lol
__________________
“One day your life will flash before your eyes. Make sure it's worth watching.”
Gerard Arthur Way

Sarah in SC is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
New FIRECalc 3 dory36 FIRECalc support 20 02-09-2008 07:52 PM
Did your RE if FireCalc said no?? DangerMouse Life after FIRE 16 09-17-2007 04:55 PM
firecalc 73ss454 FIRE and Money 1 08-09-2005 03:19 PM
Firecalc Mike Z FIRE and Money 2 10-21-2003 07:04 AM

» Quick Links

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 02:33 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.