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Has FIRECalc ever let you down?
06-04-2009, 07:55 AM
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#1
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: San Francisco
Posts: 8,827
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Has FIRECalc ever let you down?
I am a big FC fan and find it to be the best retirement calculator I have personally used. Of course, the data you enter can easily be wrong and then the results would be misleading or dangerous to your planning. Inflation is a good example -- just a 1% error can change your success rate considerably. Many of us run numerous scenarios under a wide range of assumptions to partially accommodate that margin of error (kind of a poor man's sensitivity analysis).
Has FC has ever misled you, been wrong in its logic, or revealed errors, deficiencies, or assumptions which might have led to serious planning errors, even though your input was acceptable to you? I'm especially interested in the experience of those already FIREd who relied on FC to guide the decision. Has it been as infallible as it seems to be?
For the record, I have not run into such deficiencies myself -- unexpected results were usually due to my input errors.
__________________
Rich
San Francisco Area
ESR'd March 2010. FIRE'd January 2011.
As if you didn't know..If the above message contains medical content, it's NOT intended as advice, and may not be accurate, applicable or sufficient. Don't rely on it for any purpose. Consult your own doctor for all medical advice.
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06-04-2009, 08:55 AM
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#2
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 47,468
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I am not yet retired, but just wanted to caution people not to base their retirement finances solely on ANY calculator. FIRECALC is the best one I have seen, but I only use it as a double-check. I think the kind of sensitivity analysis that you refer to is one of the best uses for FIRECALC, rather than using it to determine how much to spend.
Personally I worry that FIRECALC is too optimistic with my portfolio. It always seems to give me more money to spend than I think would be prudent.
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities. - - H. Melville, 1851.
Happily retired since 2009, at age 61. Best years of my life by far!
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06-04-2009, 09:27 AM
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#3
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 1,901
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__________________
“I guess I should warn you, if I turn out to be particularly clear, you've probably misunderstood what I've said” Alan Greenspan
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06-04-2009, 09:29 AM
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#4
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 50,000
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rich_in_Tampa
Has FC has ever misled you, been wrong in its logic, or revealed errors, deficiencies, or assumptions which might have led to serious planning errors, even though your input was acceptable to you? I'm especially interested in the experience of those already FIREd who relied on FC to guide the decision. Has it been as infallible as it seems to be?
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I'll let you know in 20 years or so.
__________________
Numbers is hard
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06-04-2009, 09:30 AM
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#5
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Charleston, SC
Posts: 13,566
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I'll let you know when we show up like dirty hippies in the Airstream on your doorstep, looking for a meal and a shower.
__________________
“One day your life will flash before your eyes. Make sure it's worth watching.”
Gerard Arthur Way
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06-04-2009, 09:33 AM
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#6
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 50,000
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This sounds like a question asked by someone in the last 90 days leading up to pulling the plug...
__________________
Numbers is hard
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06-04-2009, 09:34 AM
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#7
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 4,764
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Sure does! might need to change his sig to 95.7893% retired
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06-04-2009, 09:41 AM
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#8
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: San Francisco
Posts: 8,827
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Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo
This sounds like a question asked by someone in the last 90 days leading up to pulling the plug...
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Well, a little more cushion never hurt anyone .
__________________
Rich
San Francisco Area
ESR'd March 2010. FIRE'd January 2011.
As if you didn't know..If the above message contains medical content, it's NOT intended as advice, and may not be accurate, applicable or sufficient. Don't rely on it for any purpose. Consult your own doctor for all medical advice.
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06-04-2009, 09:43 AM
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#9
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Collin County, TX
Posts: 9,293
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rich_in_Tampa
Well, a little more cushion never hurt anyone .
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I like that attitude.....
__________________
There's no need to complicate, our time is short..
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06-04-2009, 09:44 AM
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#10
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 50,000
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rich_in_Tampa
Well, a little more cushion never hurt anyone .
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That's the same line I used on DW when she asked "Does this dress make my butt look big?" Hope you do better with it than I did...
__________________
Numbers is hard
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06-04-2009, 09:57 AM
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#11
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Charleston, SC
Posts: 13,566
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Whooooo, that REWahoo needs to change his name to RandyWahoo after some of these posts the last few days! Sassy! Has the young wife been putting something in your coffee?
__________________
“One day your life will flash before your eyes. Make sure it's worth watching.”
Gerard Arthur Way
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06-04-2009, 09:59 AM
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#12
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 50,000
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Yes, but if I detect even the slightest hint of arsenic I don't drink it.
__________________
Numbers is hard
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06-04-2009, 10:00 AM
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#13
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Gone but not forgotten
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Sarasota,fl.
Posts: 11,447
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After the meltdown I reran firecalc with my new portfolio and it still gave me 100% safe so I hope it's correct or maybe it just did want to see a grown woman cry .
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06-04-2009, 02:56 PM
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#14
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Lake Livingston, Tx
Posts: 4,203
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I am not sure how anyone would know if FC has let them down. The market is down, FC said it may go down some years, FC said it would recover soon enough and fast enough so ones retirement would be OK for a 25 or 30 year period. Now I don't know how long FC has been around but I doubt 25 years. So, I don't see how enough time has passed. Now if FC said you would be OK, and you are now broke, that may be a different story. So far, I have not heard any such stories here.
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If it is after 5:00 when I post I reserve the right to disavow anything I posted.
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06-04-2009, 03:10 PM
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#15
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 47,468
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rustic23
I am not sure how anyone would know if FC has let them down. The market is down, FC said it may go down some years, FC said it would recover soon enough and fast enough so ones retirement would be OK for a 25 or 30 year period. Now I don't know how long FC has been around but I doubt 25 years. So, I don't see how enough time has passed. Now if FC said you would be OK, and you are now broke, that may be a different story. So far, I have not heard any such stories here.
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I may be completely out of line, because I am not familiar with Firecalc and have not seen the code. Still, if Firecalc gives you a 100% probability of success, I would suggest that the best interpretation of that is that given what the market has done historically, you would not have failed given your parameters in those market conditions.
Although this gives you a pretty good idea of where you stand, I would not interpret this output in a predictive sort of way since (as far as I know) the model is based on historical data, not on simulated data based on market predictions.
So, I still would not think that Firecalc had let me down, even if it gave me 100% probability of success and I was now broke (which thank heavens, is not my situation). OK, maybe I am quibbling over minutia.
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities. - - H. Melville, 1851.
Happily retired since 2009, at age 61. Best years of my life by far!
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06-04-2009, 03:45 PM
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#16
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 1,901
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Want2retire
I may be completely out of line, because I am not familiar with Firecalc and have not seen the code. Still, if Firecalc gives you a 100% probability of success, I would suggest that the best interpretation of that is that given what the market has done historically, you would not have failed given your parameters in those market conditions.
Although this gives you a pretty good idea of where you stand, I would not interpret this output in a predictive sort of way since (as far as I know) the model is based on historical data, not on simulated data based on market predictions.
So, I still would not think that Firecalc had let me down, even if it gave me 100% probability of success and I was now broke (which thank heavens, is not my situation). OK, maybe I am quibbling over minutia.
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I agree with W2R. You input your retirement $ amount, asset allocation and time period of your planned retirement and FC runs a rolling time analysis based on historical market performance back to 1871. So if you input 30 years, it compares success rates based on you retiring in every year since 1871 for a 30 year period. That's a lot of different 30 yr. retirements when many good and bad things happened.
__________________
“I guess I should warn you, if I turn out to be particularly clear, you've probably misunderstood what I've said” Alan Greenspan
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06-04-2009, 04:52 PM
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#17
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Oahu
Posts: 26,855
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Quote:
Did I miss an earlier announcement? Didn't that use to say "10%"?
__________________
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Co-author (with my daughter) of “Raising Your Money-Savvy Family For Next Generation Financial Independence.”
Author of the book written on E-R.org: "The Military Guide to Financial Independence and Retirement."
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06-04-2009, 05:00 PM
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#18
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 50,000
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Inflation.
__________________
Numbers is hard
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06-04-2009, 05:09 PM
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#19
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: San Francisco
Posts: 8,827
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nords
Did I miss an earlier announcement? Didn't that use to say "10%"?
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It changed months ago. I started making rounds 15 minutes later than before.
__________________
Rich
San Francisco Area
ESR'd March 2010. FIRE'd January 2011.
As if you didn't know..If the above message contains medical content, it's NOT intended as advice, and may not be accurate, applicable or sufficient. Don't rely on it for any purpose. Consult your own doctor for all medical advice.
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06-04-2009, 05:17 PM
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#20
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Charleston, SC
Posts: 13,566
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You rebel doc, you! lol
__________________
“One day your life will flash before your eyes. Make sure it's worth watching.”
Gerard Arthur Way
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