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Dawg52 · 09-29-2008, 06:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Moemg

We might as well since that is something we can still afford to do !

Not really. Pretty soon, I won't be able to afford the little blue pills to make it happen.

HFWR · 09-29-2008, 06:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rich_in_Tampa

Are you saying you copulate while asleep?

Well, I think she might have been awake...

REWahoo · 09-29-2008, 06:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HFWR

Well, I think she might have been awake...

...at first.

HFWR · 09-29-2008, 06:58 PM

I hated to wake her...

samclem · 09-29-2008, 07:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by REWahoo

...at first.

FIREd · 09-29-2008, 07:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Want2retire

Well, I assumed that the bonds would stay the same (yeah, right?

) and that only the equities would lose 45%. Try that. It's a little better.

That's what I did and even with 35% bonds/cash, still

Suze Orman just said on Larry King: Don't be surprised if we reach DOW 8000 pretty quickly!

W2R · 09-29-2008, 07:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FIREdreamer

That's what I did and even with 35% bonds/cash, still

Suze Orman just said on Larry King: Don't be surprised if we reach DOW 8000 pretty quickly!

Whew. That's worse than that idiot Cramer. I think he said 8200.

Let's see - - the market high was around 14000 and some, I think. So,

8000/14,000 = 0.57 or a 43% drop. A 45% drop would be 7700.

To be honest, I don't think it is going there, or even to 9000, but if it does I think I am prepared.

Gone4Good · 09-29-2008, 07:51 PM

I'll call the bottom when Joe six pack is out of work, watching creditors cart off his big screen TV and screaming at his Congressman . . . "Why didn't you DO SOMETHING!!!!!"

Zoocat · 09-29-2008, 08:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Want2retire

Well, I assumed that the bonds would stay the same (yeah, right?

) and that only the equities would lose 45%. Try that. It's a little better.

But the market dropping, say, 30% is not the same as your portfolio dropping that much, especially if you are invested in mutual funds. So I don't know how you could figure that out. Not sure I really want to anyway.

samclem · 09-29-2008, 08:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Oldbabe

But the market dropping, say, 30% is not the same as your portfolio dropping that much, especially if you are invested in mutual funds. So I don't know how you could figure that out. Not sure I really want to anyway.

It depends what stocks are actually in the mutual funds. Some mutual funds do hold (nearly) the exact stocks in the exact proportions that are quoted in the indexes (the "S&P 500" etc), and these mutual funds would be down 35% if the S&P 500 was down 35%.

Some mutual funds might do far worse than "the market." If the fund is concentrated in a sector that s doing poorly (e.g. financial stocks right now) then that mutual fund could conceivably be down a lot more than the market as a whole.

Zoocat · 09-29-2008, 08:09 PM

Well, I just checked my Vanguard Healthcare fund and it is down almost $6 a share. That's annoying. I thought that health care was a sector that would do well in a down turn.

unclemick · 09-29-2008, 08:27 PM

Well now - to paraphrase one of my posts from over at the Bogleheads forum.

Those Vanguard computers are rebalancing their little electronic hearts out to keep my Target Retirement asset classes up to snuff - while I'm watching football even.

Pssst - Wellesley = 4.69% SEC yield according to the VG website.

heh heh heh - not to worry party on!

Of course my greed meter is starting to peg - mad money only of course. It's those pesky hormones.

.

W2R · 09-29-2008, 08:28 PM

Oldbabe, I heard that every stock in the Dow was down today. I have heard it said that this downturn is unusual in that normally uncorrelated assets are sinking simultaneously.

Hey, UncleMick, my Wellesley gave me a nice dividend last week.

pssst... Wellesley! and all that.

jazz4cash · 09-29-2008, 08:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by samclem

It depends what stocks are actually in the mutual funds. Some mutual funds do hold (nearly) the exact stocks in the exact proportions that are quoted in the indexes (the "S&P 500" etc), and these mutual funds would be down 35% if the S&P 500 was down 35%.

Some mutual funds might do far worse than "the market." If the fund is concentrated in a sector that s doing poorly (e.g. financial stocks right now) then that mutual fund could conceivably be down a lot more than the market as a whole.

......should make for some very interesting managed vs. index discussions.

audreyh1 · 09-29-2008, 08:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Want2retire

Well, I assumed that the bonds would stay the same (yeah, right?

) ....:

Unless your bond funds are invested only in treasuries, they've been hit really hard too by the credit crunch.

Audrey

wildcat · 09-29-2008, 08:53 PM

No we haven't IMO. Valuations still aren't that cheap. According to the ratings whores @ CNBC, we have just now closed in on the avg bear market % decline - 30%. Yeah.........

harley · 09-29-2008, 08:56 PM

It's interesting that Suze and others are saying that this isn't a good time to invest. I agree that things are going to be all over the place for a while. But if we hit Dow 8000 or S&P 1000 (or 900) or whatever, it seems to me to be a great time to be putting money in. Some will go in while things are still going down, but someday we'll be back in the 12000 - 14000 range again. I'd much rather be investing (money I won't need for a long time) now and in the near future than when the market is up again. If it takes 5 years to go back to 13500 from, say, 9000, that's a significantly better return than if I had invested in 2007. Am I being overly optimistic? Are we in the doldrums for decades?

W2R · 09-29-2008, 09:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by audreyh1

Unless your bond funds are invested only in treasuries, they've been hit really hard too by the credit crunch.

Audrey

Yeah- - I know some of mine have done awfully lately. That's what I meant by using this "roll eyes" emoticon:

but maybe it would have been clearer if I had just said it.

ejman · 09-29-2008, 09:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Want2retire

Ah, oui, do not pa-nique! Do not pa-nique!

I just heard that in the market crash of 1987, the market dropped 45% (not overnight, but in a brief time). I am not pa-niqu-ing but just computed what my portfolio would look like after a 45% drop in the market. Those guys had to be tough back then!

Not tough - just frozen with fear. I started investing January of 1987 and remember looking at a TV monitor just off a plane at the Kansas City Airport showing a 25% drop in the Dow (in one day!) and thinking wow 1929 all over again!