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Have we capitulated yet?
Old 09-29-2008, 05:51 PM   #1
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Have we capitulated yet?

I just thought I'd start a new "ain't it awful" tread about the stock market. It really sucks. At least that's my opinion.
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Old 09-29-2008, 05:58 PM   #2
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I don't know if WE have capitulated. But, I have capitulated!

UNCLE! UNCLE! UNCLE!
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Old 09-29-2008, 05:58 PM   #3
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I have not yet decided if it totally sucks or not. I have a lot of cash on the sidelines (about 50% of my portfolio), and would love to dump it into the market when it is 30-50% off its high. OTOH, I understand that a depression or severe recession hurt me, my community and the county in many ways. On the balance, I would prefer for this not to have happened. OTOH, as I mentioned in an earlier thread, I oppose the bailout, although I strongly suspect a different version will pass later this week, and be just as expensive and just as rewarding to the guilty.
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Old 09-29-2008, 06:22 PM   #4
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Oof. I really hope tomorrow is better.

It probably IS a good time to rebalance.
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Old 09-29-2008, 06:38 PM   #5
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I think we have to go lower. We are not even in a recession yet (technically speaking) and we have yet to see horrible earnings from companies reflecting the health of the economy as a whole. Banks are just starting to blow up abroad. DOW 8000? lower? I don't know but I can't imagine this is the bottom. The most bearish forecasts (Marc Faber, David Tice, etc...) put the DOW around 6000-8000 in 18 months... That's another 20-35% down from where we are tonight.
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Old 09-29-2008, 06:49 PM   #6
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I think we have to go lower. We are not even in a recession yet (technically speaking) and we have yet to see horrible earnings from companies reflecting the economy as a whole. Banks are just starting to blow up abroad. DOW 8000? lower? I don't know but I can't imagine this is the bottom. The most bearish forecasts (Marc Faber, David Tice, etc...) put the DOW around 6000-8000 in 18 months... That's another 20-35% down from where we are tonight.
Suze Orman (granted, not the be all and end all in investing) says this is not a good time to invest new money because the market is really tricky right now. I just thought that was interesting since she usually sticks with common sense advice.

I hope your bearish forecasts are incorrect. In fact, I am hoping that this is another one of those weeks that ends up where it began. That would sure be nice.
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Old 09-29-2008, 06:54 PM   #7
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Easy there, 2B, you of all people! Ok, I can still dig deep into my past for inspiration: a French teacher handing out pop quizzes, speaking English with ah, a French accent, "do not pa-nique, do not pa-nique."

No, no, I have not capitulated yet. And have no plans to sell. I did re-allocate last summer and am thinking long term.
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Old 09-29-2008, 06:58 PM   #8
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Vix didn't hit a high, but very close
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Old 09-29-2008, 07:05 PM   #9
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Suze Orman (granted, not the be all and end all in investing) says this is not a good time to invest new money because the market is really tricky right now. I just thought that was interesting since she usually sticks with common sense advice.

I hope your bearish forecasts are incorrect. In fact, I am hoping that this is another one of those weeks that ends up where it began. That would sure be nice.
The other day she said that in a couple of years it will be a good time to buy stocks and that in the mean time you should not invest new money in the market... I don't know it kinda agrees with some of those bearish forecasts out there... The next 18-24 months are going to be nasty for stocks... Keep your powder dry if you are a DMT...

Nobody (I know of) is saying that we will see DOW 8000 by the end of the week (I sure hope we don't!). We might go back up from here and go back down later. I really don't know. And like most people on this board, I hope the bears are wrong... But let's face it, the tide is going their way right now...

But do not pa-nique! The market will recover... one day...
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Old 09-29-2008, 07:16 PM   #10
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Ah, oui, do not pa-nique! Do not pa-nique!

I just heard that in the market crash of 1987, the market dropped 45% (not overnight, but in a brief time). I am not pa-niqu-ing but just computed what my portfolio would look like after a 45% drop in the market. Those guys had to be tough back then!
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Old 09-29-2008, 07:17 PM   #11
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Originally Posted by Want2retire View Post
Suze Orman (granted, not the be all and end all in investing) says this is not a good time to invest new money because the market is really tricky right now. I just thought that was interesting since she usually sticks with common sense advice.

I hope your bearish forecasts are incorrect. In fact, I am hoping that this is another one of those weeks that ends up where it began. That would sure be nice.
Easy for Suze to say, she's 100% cash and Tbills..........
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Old 09-29-2008, 07:20 PM   #12
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I would be too, if I had anywhere near her net worth!!
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Old 09-29-2008, 07:22 PM   #13
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I am not pa-niqu-ing but just computed what my portfolio would look like after a 45% drop in the market.
I did the same!..
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Old 09-29-2008, 07:27 PM   #14
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I did the same!..
Well, I assumed that the bonds would stay the same (yeah, right? ) and that only the equities would lose 45%. Try that. It's a little better.
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Old 09-29-2008, 07:32 PM   #15
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I'm sleeping better, but then everytime I see this thread title I think it says "have we copulated yet"
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Old 09-29-2008, 07:37 PM   #16
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I'm sleeping better, but then everytime I see this thread title I think it says "have we copulated yet"
Oooh!! You must be like Ha, with your mind turning towards, uh, that stuff when the market gets really icky.

I just get a nervous stomach.
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Old 09-29-2008, 07:41 PM   #17
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I'm sleeping better, but then everytime I see this thread title I think it says "have we copulated yet"

We might as well since that is something we can still afford to do !
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Old 09-29-2008, 07:44 PM   #18
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In fact, I am hoping that this is another one of those weeks that ends up where it began. That would sure be nice.
I don't recall who said it but "Hope is not a good investment strategy".

With that poke at W2R I would have to say today was as close to 'panic' as we've seen in this market. Of course, it could just be the market looking forward 6 months or so and seeing reduced earnings and employment due to a lack of credit. Time will tell.

I'm not looking forward to tomorrow but I'm retired, if I was in the accumulation phase I would be up early.
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Old 09-29-2008, 07:53 PM   #19
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I'm sleeping better, but then everytime I see this thread title I think it says "have we copulated yet"
Are you saying you copulate while asleep? I'll never understand this economy...
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Old 09-29-2008, 07:54 PM   #20
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I don't recall who said it but "Hope is not a good investment strategy".
Yeah, but I'm OK just staying the course for now. I should be all excited about the blue-light special, but I think I'll just sit back and watch. I tend to be more comfortable just following my plan and maintaining a conservative AA.

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With that poke at W2R I would have to say today was as close to 'panic' as we've seen in this market. Of course, it could just be the market looking forward 6 months or so and seeing reduced earnings and employment due to a lack of credit. Time will tell.

I'm not looking forward to tomorrow but I'm retired, if I was in the accumulation phase I would be up early.
It was pretty scary for a lot of people. I am in the accumulation phase, though nearly there (just 404 more days). I have accumulated enough but I am waiting for lifetime medical. People at work know when I plan to retire, and it's unnerving seeing them looking at me with concern and whispering about the market. I will make it, though, unless the market completely craters or very nearly so.

Of course, it might! Do not pa-nique, do not pa-nique...
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