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Old 02-28-2014, 08:45 AM   #41
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I don't mean to be too challenging but if you have data that shows expected future returns and how those methods have done in actually predicting the future returns, then I'd like to see it.
Vanguard has a paper on this where they look at multiple indicators (10 and 1 year forecast):

https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/s338.pdf

See Figure 2 on page 7 which has a comparison of methods. PE10 is the best but is barely better then PE/1 at 10 years. Other methods are even worse.
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Old 02-28-2014, 08:48 AM   #42
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But DW keeps getting awarded company stock and it is pushing our equity allocation beyond our target. Rebalancing would trigger a sizable tax bill, so we are letting it be for the time being. In the mean time, all new money goes to cash and i-bonds.
Seems like the best approach. You may have to consider at some point how much you are willing to be invested in a single issue (especially one you are also employed with) and reluctantly take some tax hit to avoid too much risk in a single company.
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Old 02-28-2014, 11:34 AM   #43
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In anticipation of low return from bonds, have you bumped up your equity allocation? We are currently at 40/60 (equity/fixed-income) but thinking about increasing the allocation of equity to 50%. It's true that motivation for a change is heavily influenced by recency of stellar equity return relative to bond.
No, I will not do this.

I am a rebalancer - - I have a specific asset allocation, and written rules for when I can rebalance. I can rebalance during the first week in January when I withdraw the entire year's spending money, and also I can rebalance at other times depending on how far I have drifted from my AA.

Right now, my AA just hasn't drifted that much.

On the other hand, I just wanted to slip into this thread with yet another excited Wheee!!! The market is just BOUNDING upwards. I just love looking at my balances these days and you probably do too. It seems like almost every day I have a greater net worth than ever before in my lifetime. Including yesterday.... What a great ride this is and has been. Let's savor the moment, and when the market finally crashes, as it always seems to, let's remember how we feel about the market on this day.

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Old 02-28-2014, 11:43 AM   #44
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On the other hand, I just wanted to slip into this thread with yet another excited Wheee!!!
That does it. I'm selling everything and moving to cash. We're all doomed!
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Old 02-28-2014, 11:49 AM   #45
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No, I will not do this.

I am a rebalancer - - I have a specific asset allocation, and written rules for when I can rebalance. I can rebalance during the first week in January when I withdraw the entire year's spending money, and also I can rebalance at other times depending on how far I have drifted from my AA.

Right now, my AA just hasn't drifted that much.

On the other hand, I just wanted to slip into this thread with yet another excited Wheee!!! The market is just BOUNDING upwards. I just love looking at my balances these days and you probably do too. It seems like almost every day I have a greater net worth than ever before in my lifetime. Including yesterday.... What a great ride this is and has been. Let's savor the moment, and when the market finally crashes, as it always seems to, let's remember how we feel about the market on this day.

Yep, if the markets still up at 3:55 PM I'm bailing out!!! It has been a long time since I've seen such a sure sell signal.
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Old 02-28-2014, 12:03 PM   #46
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My usual modus operandus is to check my balances regularly (almost daily) when the market is going up and to not bother checking them very often in bear markets, so as to avoid that weird feeling in the pit of my stomach. Trouble is, all this near-constant up-movement in the market is making me nervous and I'm thinking about not checking my balances today, as I'm not sure if I can take all this excitement.

OK, I thought about it. I think I can handle it
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Old 02-28-2014, 12:31 PM   #47
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No, I will not do this.

I am a rebalancer - - I have a specific asset allocation, and written rules for when I can rebalance. I can rebalance during the first week in January when I withdraw the entire year's spending money, and also I can rebalance at other times depending on how far I have drifted from my AA.

Right now, my AA just hasn't drifted that much.

On the other hand, I just wanted to slip into this thread with yet another excited Wheee!!! The market is just BOUNDING upwards. I just love looking at my balances these days and you probably do too. It seems like almost every day I have a greater net worth than ever before in my lifetime. Including yesterday.... What a great ride this is and has been. Let's savor the moment, and when the market finally crashes, as it always seems to, let's remember how we feel about the market on this day.

Oh Oh, here comes the stampeding herd.
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Old 02-28-2014, 12:34 PM   #48
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On the other hand, I just wanted to slip into this thread with yet another excited Wheee!!! The market is just BOUNDING upwards. I just love looking at my balances these days and you probably do too. It seems like almost every day I have a greater net worth than ever before in my lifetime. Including yesterday.... What a great ride this is and has been. Let's savor the moment, and when the market finally crashes, as it always seems to, let's remember how we feel about the market on this day.

Yes, we update our portfolio on a daily basis and feel very fortunate that it continues to grow.
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Old 02-28-2014, 02:34 PM   #49
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Not that anyone here really doubts W2R's power to move markets, but if anybody did, the action this afternoon should dispel all lingering doubt.

Stocks Plummet Into The Red - Yahoo Finance

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Stocks Plummet Into The Red

By Matthew Boesler | Business Insider 25 minutes ago

The S&P 500 has just fallen into negative territory after spending most of the day up nicely.
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Old 02-28-2014, 05:03 PM   #50
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Not that anyone here really doubts W2R's power to move markets, but if anybody did, the action this afternoon should dispel all lingering doubt.

Stocks Plummet Into The Red - Yahoo Finance
Yes, I wonder if W2R would consider starting a 24 hr or so advance private Wheee! notification service so that when the public Wheee! appears we cognsoscenti are already multi millionaires...
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