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05-14-2010, 02:38 PM
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#181
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 889
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 Quote:
Originally Posted by haha
If you don't believe in the EMH, what is reasonable about index investing? Without an assumed tight linkage between price and value the whole indexing idea is hollow.
Ha
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It would have been better if I had said that I don't believe in "strong form" EMH.
I believe that, most of the time, the market does a reasonable job of valuing stocks in the large cap sector. So, I am happy using index funds for these, although not exclusively.
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05-14-2010, 02:59 PM
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#182
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Austin
Posts: 1,142
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This sort of sounds like another shoe dropping to me
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/20...lfare-and.html
Anybody care to speculate on the impact to California's economy?
__________________
Start by admitting
from cradle to tomb
it isn't that long a stay.
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05-15-2010, 06:55 AM
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#183
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 5,381
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Quote:
Originally Posted by IndependentlyPoor
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At least its not a new shoe.
But its true. At the same time the Federal Government is using fiscal stimulus to support recovery, nearly every state is tightening (raising taxes and cutting spending). We have 50 Herbert Hoovers at the state level throwing the machinery into reverse.
__________________
Retired early, traveling perpetually.
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05-16-2010, 04:09 PM
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#185
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Portland
Posts: 4,946
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gone4Good
At least its not a new shoe.
But its true. At the same time the Federal Government is using fiscal stimulus to support recovery, nearly every state is tightening (raising taxes and cutting spending). We have 50 Herbert Hoovers at the state level throwing the machinery into reverse.
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Heh. They aren't lil Hoovers by choice. All states except Vermont have some sort of balanced budget amendment or rule. 38 of the states and territories cannot carry forward a deficit from year to year, so policies for dodging economic fluctuations such such as a rolling net balance over a several year period cannot be applied.
Couple that with states that rely primarily on income tax on high earners, which tend to vanish in economic downturns, and we find that many states are set up for a real budgetary roller coaster ride.
It's the Law of Unintended Consequences with nasty big pointy teeth.
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05-17-2010, 09:00 AM
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#186
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Central MS/Orange Beach, AL
Posts: 9,071
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David Hefty CEO with Cornerstone Wealth Mgt says DOW 5000 this year. Heard it on cnbc. So there you have it, sell. 
__________________
Retired 3/31/2007@52
Investing style: Full time wuss.
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05-17-2010, 09:10 AM
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#187
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 50,021
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Dawg, you know watching financial porn is bad for your health...
__________________
Numbers is hard
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05-17-2010, 09:17 AM
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#188
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Central MS/Orange Beach, AL
Posts: 9,071
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Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo
Dawg, you know watching financial porn is bad for your health...
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Yeah, but it gives me an excuse to stock up on med's.
__________________
Retired 3/31/2007@52
Investing style: Full time wuss.
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05-17-2010, 10:02 AM
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#189
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 12,483
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dawg52
Yeah, but it gives me an excuse to stock up on med's.
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You have become the consumate CNBC watcher:
1)You play a lot of golf
2)You drink meds
3)You watch CNBC every day
They love folks like you.......... 
__________________
Consult with your own advisor or representative. My thoughts should not be construed as investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results (love that one).......:)
This Thread is USELESS without pics.........:)
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05-17-2010, 10:23 AM
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#190
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 291
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8500 soon...
__________________
FIRED at 39 in 2008...
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Forecast of market open and close...
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05-17-2010, 11:07 AM
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#191
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Portland
Posts: 4,946
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Forecast of market open and close...
I forecast that the market will open at 9:30 AM and close at 4:00 PM.
Oh, the market VALUATION?
A widely cited incident involves when J. P. Morgan (1837-1913) was asked by someone what the market would do that day. It will fluctuate, young man. It will fluctuate, Morgan reportedly replied.
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05-17-2010, 11:10 AM
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#192
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 47,498
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Quote:
Originally Posted by M Paquette
I forecast that the market will open at 9:30 AM and close at 4:00 PM.
Oh, the market VALUATION?
A widely cited incident involves when J. P. Morgan (1837-1913) was asked by someone what the market would do that day. “It will fluctuate, young man. It will fluctuate,” Morgan reportedly replied.
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+1 Finally someone who has it figured out. M Paquette, you need to start putting out a newsletter. 
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities. - - H. Melville, 1851.
Happily retired since 2009, at age 61. Best years of my life by far!
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05-17-2010, 11:22 AM
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#193
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: At The Cafe
Posts: 6,873
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Quote:
Originally Posted by M Paquette
I forecast that the market will open at 9:30 AM and close at 4:00 PM.
....
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Not in our time zone! Finally a finance topic I understand. Way back when I was w*rking, I sometimes had occasion to walk into the Financial District before the buses started at 6:00 a.m. It was amusing to see the mini-rush hour of walkers hurrying to get to work well before the market opens at 6:30 a.m.
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05-17-2010, 11:47 AM
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#194
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 2,080
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Steve O
8500 soon...
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LOL, I can play that game too:
13500 soon...
__________________
"We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors, we borrow it from our children.
(Ancient Indian Proverb)"
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05-17-2010, 12:41 PM
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#195
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 889
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It will be nice if share prices go down more or stay put for the rest of the year. I was afraid that the good bargains would be gone before the end of 2010. Lots of great stocks out their at very good prices. I will continue adding most new money to a Europe index. Fear driving down share price is good.
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05-17-2010, 08:42 PM
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#196
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 291
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So I guess it's all gonna work out great, I should buy the dip and party like it's 1929 
We have a "Constitutional scholar" and an "Expert on the Great Depression" in charge, what could go wrong
__________________
FIRED at 39 in 2008...
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05-18-2010, 10:43 AM
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#197
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 2,080
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I never said nothing can go wrong.
I was simply commenting on your absolutism.
April or so of 2009 we had someone just as sure as you that the S&P would face a major correction 'soon'. They mentioned a month. That month came and went, so they extended it another month or so. In another month or so, they extended it to the end of October.
Didn't happen, instead of 740, we were over 1000 as I recall.
Likewise, I am not saying that next week we will have a rally, or even next month. You may be right and "soon" we will hit 8500. I don't really care (just when is "soon" anyways).
All I am saying is that eventually, any prediction of the stock market is likely to come to pass. And if you use weasel words such as 'soon' it is not difficult to make predictions that come true 
__________________
"We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors, we borrow it from our children.
(Ancient Indian Proverb)"
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05-18-2010, 10:45 AM
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#198
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 13,141
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zathras
LOL, I can play that game too:
13500 soon...
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I'll split the difference: 11,000 
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05-18-2010, 10:46 AM
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#199
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 38,138
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If we hit 8500, I'll be able to rebalance again!
Audrey
__________________
Retired since summer 1999.
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05-18-2010, 11:28 AM
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#200
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 5,381
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zathras
April or so of 2009 we had someone just as sure as you that the S&P would face a major correction 'soon'. They mentioned a month. That month came and went, so they extended it another month or so. In another month or so, they extended it to the end of October.
Didn't happen, instead of 740, we were over 1000 as I recall.
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I remember him. I think his name was Steve O.
__________________
Retired early, traveling perpetually.
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