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Old 05-14-2010, 03:38 PM   #181
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If you don't believe in the EMH, what is reasonable about index investing? Without an assumed tight linkage between price and value the whole indexing idea is hollow.

Ha
It would have been better if I had said that I don't believe in "strong form" EMH.

I believe that, most of the time, the market does a reasonable job of valuing stocks in the large cap sector. So, I am happy using index funds for these, although not exclusively.
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Old 05-14-2010, 03:59 PM   #182
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This sort of sounds like another shoe dropping to me
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/20...lfare-and.html

Anybody care to speculate on the impact to California's economy?
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Old 05-15-2010, 07:55 AM   #183
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This sort of sounds like another shoe dropping to me
Calculated Risk: Schwarzenegger: Eliminate Welfare and most Child Care, reduce Health Care

Anybody care to speculate on the impact to California's economy?
At least its not a new shoe.

But its true. At the same time the Federal Government is using fiscal stimulus to support recovery, nearly every state is tightening (raising taxes and cutting spending). We have 50 Herbert Hoovers at the state level throwing the machinery into reverse.
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Old 05-16-2010, 10:56 AM   #184
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Ever heard of the butterfly effect? Well...maybe the penny effect caused that almost 1000 pt drop in the dow.

Secretive speed traders in spotlight after crash - Yahoo! Finance
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Old 05-16-2010, 05:09 PM   #185
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At least its not a new shoe.

But its true. At the same time the Federal Government is using fiscal stimulus to support recovery, nearly every state is tightening (raising taxes and cutting spending). We have 50 Herbert Hoovers at the state level throwing the machinery into reverse.
Heh. They aren't lil Hoovers by choice. All states except Vermont have some sort of balanced budget amendment or rule. 38 of the states and territories cannot carry forward a deficit from year to year, so policies for dodging economic fluctuations such such as a rolling net balance over a several year period cannot be applied.

Couple that with states that rely primarily on income tax on high earners, which tend to vanish in economic downturns, and we find that many states are set up for a real budgetary roller coaster ride.

It's the Law of Unintended Consequences with nasty big pointy teeth.
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Old 05-17-2010, 10:00 AM   #186
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David Hefty CEO with Cornerstone Wealth Mgt says DOW 5000 this year. Heard it on cnbc. So there you have it, sell.
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Old 05-17-2010, 10:10 AM   #187
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Dawg, you know watching financial porn is bad for your health...
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Old 05-17-2010, 10:17 AM   #188
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Dawg, you know watching financial porn is bad for your health...
Yeah, but it gives me an excuse to stock up on med's.
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Old 05-17-2010, 11:02 AM   #189
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Yeah, but it gives me an excuse to stock up on med's.
You have become the consumate CNBC watcher:

1)You play a lot of golf

2)You drink meds

3)You watch CNBC every day

They love folks like you..........
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Old 05-17-2010, 11:23 AM   #190
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8500 soon...
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Forecast of market open and close...
Old 05-17-2010, 12:07 PM   #191
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Forecast of market open and close...

I forecast that the market will open at 9:30 AM and close at 4:00 PM.

Oh, the market VALUATION?

A widely cited incident involves when J. P. Morgan (1837-1913) was asked by someone what the market would do that day. It will fluctuate, young man. It will fluctuate, Morgan reportedly replied.
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Old 05-17-2010, 12:10 PM   #192
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I forecast that the market will open at 9:30 AM and close at 4:00 PM.

Oh, the market VALUATION?

A widely cited incident involves when J. P. Morgan (1837-1913) was asked by someone what the market would do that day. “It will fluctuate, young man. It will fluctuate,” Morgan reportedly replied.
+1 Finally someone who has it figured out. M Paquette, you need to start putting out a newsletter.
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Old 05-17-2010, 12:22 PM   #193
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I forecast that the market will open at 9:30 AM and close at 4:00 PM.

....
Not in our time zone! Finally a finance topic I understand. Way back when I was w*rking, I sometimes had occasion to walk into the Financial District before the buses started at 6:00 a.m. It was amusing to see the mini-rush hour of walkers hurrying to get to work well before the market opens at 6:30 a.m.
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Old 05-17-2010, 12:47 PM   #194
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8500 soon...
LOL, I can play that game too:
13500 soon...
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Old 05-17-2010, 01:41 PM   #195
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It will be nice if share prices go down more or stay put for the rest of the year. I was afraid that the good bargains would be gone before the end of 2010. Lots of great stocks out their at very good prices. I will continue adding most new money to a Europe index. Fear driving down share price is good.
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Old 05-17-2010, 09:42 PM   #196
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So I guess it's all gonna work out great, I should buy the dip and party like it's 1929

We have a "Constitutional scholar" and an "Expert on the Great Depression" in charge, what could go wrong
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Old 05-18-2010, 11:43 AM   #197
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So I guess it's all gonna work out great, I should buy the dip and party like it's 1929

We have a "Constitutional scholar" and an "Expert on the Great Depression" in charge, what could go wrong
I never said nothing can go wrong.
I was simply commenting on your absolutism.
April or so of 2009 we had someone just as sure as you that the S&P would face a major correction 'soon'. They mentioned a month. That month came and went, so they extended it another month or so. In another month or so, they extended it to the end of October.
Didn't happen, instead of 740, we were over 1000 as I recall.

Likewise, I am not saying that next week we will have a rally, or even next month. You may be right and "soon" we will hit 8500. I don't really care (just when is "soon" anyways).

All I am saying is that eventually, any prediction of the stock market is likely to come to pass. And if you use weasel words such as 'soon' it is not difficult to make predictions that come true
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Old 05-18-2010, 11:45 AM   #198
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LOL, I can play that game too:
13500 soon...

I'll split the difference: 11,000
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Old 05-18-2010, 11:46 AM   #199
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If we hit 8500, I'll be able to rebalance again!

Audrey
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Old 05-18-2010, 12:28 PM   #200
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April or so of 2009 we had someone just as sure as you that the S&P would face a major correction 'soon'. They mentioned a month. That month came and went, so they extended it another month or so. In another month or so, they extended it to the end of October.
Didn't happen, instead of 740, we were over 1000 as I recall.
I remember him. I think his name was Steve O.
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