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Old 05-18-2010, 12:43 PM   #201
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No that wasn't me...

How about 8500 by the end of the month...
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Old 05-18-2010, 01:03 PM   #202
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No that wasn't me...
Probably true. I must have mistaken him for this guy . . .

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I see a huge sell off if it makes it back around 9500 or so
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Old 05-18-2010, 01:08 PM   #203
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How about 8500 by the end of the month...
Awesome! Eight trading days left to drop a touch over 2000 points. An average drop of 250 points a day for eight days straight. It COULD happen...
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Old 05-18-2010, 01:36 PM   #204
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If we hit 8500, I'll be able to rebalance again!
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I prefer to rebalance at Dow 12,000.
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Old 05-18-2010, 01:39 PM   #205
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I prefer to rebalance at Dow 12,000.
Well I would like 8500 first, and then 12,000!

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Old 05-18-2010, 01:40 PM   #206
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Just hope we do not "get" to rebalance at 6500 after 8500.
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Old 05-18-2010, 01:46 PM   #207
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Well, I have been building cash reserves for months. I moved a chunk of that cash to Vanguard yesterday so that I am ready to jump on bargains (who knows, SteveO might be right). According to something I read on Fortune yesterday, the S&P would have to drop below 800 to bring the market's P/E and dividend yield back to historical averages.

http://money.cnn.com/2010/05/17/maga...tune/index.htm

I am currently 48% stocks and 52% bonds+cash. If the S&P500 falls below 800, my IPS says that my target equity allocation would rise to roughly 70%.
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Old 05-18-2010, 01:52 PM   #208
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Man, I have been at 70+% in equities, and feel "out of ammo" if the market keeps dropping.

Nah! My bet is that this is just a little blip. US economy is still recovering. Same with Asia. Not some European countries though. I may need to pay them a visit to help them by spending my meager tourist expenses there. Oops, forgot about those Molotov cocktail bombs.
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Old 05-18-2010, 03:55 PM   #209
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I'm definitely planning to go to Europe to help their economies. Particularly Spain - it needs extra help, right? Hopefully next year some time.

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Old 05-18-2010, 06:26 PM   #210
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Why not this year? We enjoyed our Spain trip a few years ago. We flew into Barcelona and out of Madrid. In between these two end points, we traveled by train to Montserrat, Valencia, Segovia, Sevilla, and Toledo. Food and lodging were less expensive than other European countries as I remember. Spanish people are very hospitable, and we have been heartily recommending Spain as a country to visit to all our friends and relatives. We may come back in a few years to visit other corners of the country that we missed.
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Old 05-18-2010, 06:42 PM   #211
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Why not this year? We enjoyed our Spain trip a few years ago. We flew into Barcelona and out of Madrid. In between these two end points, we traveled by train to Montserrat, Valencia, Segovia, Sevilla, and Toledo. Food and lodging were less expensive than other European countries as I remember. Spanish people are very hospitable, and we have been heartily recommending Spain as a country to visit to all our friends and relatives. We may come back in a few years to visit other corners of the country that we missed.
Because I have my hands full with our new house right now and will also this fall after a short summer break when we travel in the RV. And who knows we might be doing a quick trip to Holland this late summer although chances of that seem to be diminishing.

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Old 05-18-2010, 06:47 PM   #212
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We do not do "quick trips". For all those miserable hours suffering inside the plane, it has to be 2 weeks or more to make it worth our while. It's not like we have a job to go back to.

PS. Argh! Portfolio down another 1.21%. The way it's goin', I am not sure that I will have money for gas to take my RV to Alaska, leave alone Europe. The Greeks will have to fend for themselves, as I may not be able to help.
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Old 05-18-2010, 09:34 PM   #213
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Man, I have been at 70+% in equities, and feel "out of ammo" if the market keeps dropping.

Nah! My bet is that this is just a little blip. US economy is still recovering. Same with Asia. Not some European countries though. I may need to pay them a visit to help them by spending my meager tourist expenses there. Oops, forgot about those Molotov cocktail bombs.
I've watched many bloomberg videos on youtube, where people say that most of europe is recovering. Also they have been pretty unanimous for a while that the US and Emerging Markets are in a recovery.

As far as the Europe VGK etf that I have been buying goes, Greece stocks make up less than 1% of the index. Ireland is equally tiny and I think if memory serves that Spain and Italy were only around 5% each. So perhaps only 12% of the index is in "bad" countries. However, the index is composed of huge multinationals, most of which get less than 50% of their revenue from Europe. So, even if the multinational is based in a "bad" country I wonder if it matter that much.

I think right now is the time to go on a European vacation... and to buy European stocks. The general mood is so pessimistic on Europe you would think they were currently engaged in world war 2.
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Old 05-19-2010, 06:19 AM   #214
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Well Dow Theory and Elliot wave says sell everything and short the market...

Dow 400

This guy has been right for a while now...

A Conversation With Robert Prechter | Specials | Minyanville.com

Looks like key support will be broken today and 1040 something S$P is next...
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Old 05-19-2010, 06:33 AM   #215
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This guy has been right for a while now...

A Conversation With Robert Prechter | Specials | Minyanville.com

You mean this guy . . .

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His long-term track record from his newsletter calls has been poor. Using data from newsletter tracker Mark Hulbert, syndicated columnist Eric Tyson showed that Prechter has underperformed the broad market averages by 25 percent per year since 1985, and that $100,000 invested according to Prechter's trading advice in 1985 would be worth a mere $1,700 by May 2009.
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Old 05-19-2010, 06:52 AM   #216
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Well maybe Stev meant he has been right for a while now, if by 'right' you mean 'wrong'
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Old 05-19-2010, 06:52 AM   #217
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"However, he properly called the October 2007 top and then called the March 9, 2009, stock market bottom in February 2009. Prechter expects equities to tumble again in 2010 in a crash larger than the 1929-1932 crash."

Well I just happen to share his views...

Even if Id never heard of him it doesn't take a genius to see that this whole rally was built on hope and fraud

This market is looking for any reason it can to go lower.

Maybe the boyz in Detroit and Chicago can show them wimpy Euro's how to riot proper

When there's blood on the streets I'll start buying
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Old 05-19-2010, 07:40 AM   #218
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The trend is changing. The market is run on computers, technical programing and manipulation ran it up.

Fundamentals were ignored...

The question is if we drop lower than key support levels how will the trade bots act

The programming is based on Elliot wave Dow theory ect...

Dow Theory - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Disregarding all that, the fundamentals suck...

How long will the market keep ignoring them?

Im betting not much longer.

The FEDS are out of ammo...
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Old 05-19-2010, 08:36 AM   #219
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Wow, between Steve O, Dex, cnbc and the below guy.......I'm going to have to make another med run.

Dow Theorist Richard Russell: Sell Everything, You Won't Recognize America By The End Of The Year
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Old 05-19-2010, 08:48 AM   #220
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HP reported earnings yesterday. Sales up, profits up. Raised guidance. Same story as Intel a little while ago. Buy, buy, buy...
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