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Old 05-19-2010, 09:00 AM   #221
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We do not do "quick trips". For all those miserable hours suffering inside the plane, it has to be 2 weeks or more to make it worth our while. It's not like we have a job to go back to.
Since retiring, 2 weeks IS a quick trip for us!

Audrey
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Old 05-19-2010, 09:05 AM   #222
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Buy SDS Naked
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Old 05-19-2010, 12:57 PM   #223
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Well Dow Theory and Elliot wave says sell everything and short the market...

Dow 400

This guy has been right for a while now...

A Conversation With Robert Prechter | Specials | Minyanville.com

Looks like key support will be broken today and 1040 something S$P is next...
Technical Analysis makes no sense to me. Why should I believe that the market will go up or down because it has a certain number of ups and downs, in the recent past? What I see when I watch a technical analysis video is that they are always drawing lines based on the previous week/month of data and saying that the line will continue. It is all based on graphs and extrapolating things from them.
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Old 05-19-2010, 12:57 PM   #224
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Since retiring, 2 weeks IS a quick trip for us!
Audrey
Oohh, I like that!

As for ourselves, we actually started to miss home if it was much more than that. It remains to be seen if we can go for a month or longer with an RV.

But back on the market, Analog Devices (ADI) reported "kick-ass" earnings, also upped guidance. Buy, buy, buy...
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Old 05-19-2010, 01:44 PM   #225
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70% of the trading is done by computers that are programmed to trade on technical analysis...

It's like a damn casino, not investing...

Having fun sitting around naked and shorting

I have no idea where the markets going...

I just closed my shorts though... Too nice outside to sit around day trading
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Old 05-19-2010, 02:02 PM   #226
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70% of the trading is done by computers that are programmed to trade on technical analysis...

It's like a damn casino, not investing...

Having fun sitting around naked and shorting

I have no idea where the markets going...

I just closed my shorts though... Too nice outside to sit around day trading

Is shorting due to shrinkage
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Old 05-19-2010, 02:38 PM   #227
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It's like a damn casino, not investing...
Yeah, a casino on steroids.
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Old 05-19-2010, 06:57 PM   #228
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HP reported earnings yesterday. Sales up, profits up. Raised guidance. Same story as Intel a little while ago. Buy, buy, buy...
IBM said they will double their earnings by 2012...S&P current trading at a PE
of 20x current earnings, if projected earnings are correct, and we are still
at 20, then S&P will be 1250, if PE 15, then it will be more like 900+.
I suspect we'll be somewhere in between, pretty much right we're are.
TJ
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Old 05-19-2010, 07:33 PM   #229
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Stock prices and earnings do not always follow expectations.
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Old 05-19-2010, 07:56 PM   #230
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So, the market suffered from temporary insanity. Or perhaps not. What else was going then? The Vietnam war? All the anti-war demonstrations then, which affected the psyche of the nation?
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Old 05-19-2010, 08:01 PM   #231
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I think the Arab oil embargo had a little influence on the market back then.
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Old 05-19-2010, 08:07 PM   #232
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Implicit in both the above responses is that there could not be other events that combined with economic circumstances might once again cause a divergence between earnings and prices.

When the diveregence is in the other direction do we attempt to explain it away?

I believe that sh*t happens is the best explanation, and the sh*t is almost always different from whatever it was the last time around.

Ambiguity and uncertainty is just hard to accept, but rejecting it does not make it go away.

Ha
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Old 05-19-2010, 08:55 PM   #233
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So, the market suffered from temporary insanity. Or perhaps not. What else was going then? The Vietnam war? All the anti-war demonstrations then, which affected the psyche of the nation?
Unlike now, when everything is rosy and the wolf also shall dwell with the lamb, and the leopard shall lie down with the kid; and the calf and the young lion and the fatling together; and a little child shall lead them..
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Old 05-20-2010, 09:33 AM   #234
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I went to a subdivision wide garage sale, where the majority of homes are fairly new McMansions. It makes my head spin to see so much new stuff, some in original wrapping, for sale for pennies on the dollar.

That said, I got some new used stuffed toys for my dog.
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Old 05-20-2010, 09:47 AM   #235
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I went to a subdivision wide garage sale, where the majority of homes are fairly new McMansions. It makes my head spin to see so much new stuff, some in original wrapping, for sale for pennies on the dollar.

That said, I got some new used stuffed toys for my dog.
Yep - experience like that will really help you stop buying your own "stuff" that never really gets used.

In clearing out our stuff we had lots of Xmas gifts that we basically never used. This lead to Xmas Gift Reform with our respective families where we suggested consumables like wine, chocolate or gift certificates to our favorite stores. We had a great excuse that we didn't have room for anything in our motorhome - so don't even try.

Since then, one family has really stopped with the gifts (well MIL passing also caused it) and the other has got totally for the egift approach.

Yay!

Audrey
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Old 05-20-2010, 03:16 PM   #236
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Old 05-20-2010, 03:17 PM   #237
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Implicit in both the above responses is that there could not be other events that combined with economic circumstances might once again cause a divergence between earnings and prices.

When the diveregence is in the other direction do we attempt to explain it away?

I believe that sh*t happens is the best explanation, and the sh*t is almost always different from whatever it was the last time around.

Ambiguity and uncertainty is just hard to accept, but rejecting it does not make it go away.

Ha
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Old 05-20-2010, 03:22 PM   #238
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So, the market suffered from temporary insanity. Or perhaps not. What else was going then? The Vietnam war? All the anti-war demonstrations then, which affected the psyche of the nation?
Inflation was going on then. 9.4% in 1973 and 11.8% in 1974 versus less than 4% in the prior two years. Some of the earnings increase was simple inflation. And future earnings expectations were being discounted by higher inflation expectations . . . thus, lower multiples on higher earnings.
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Old 05-20-2010, 03:31 PM   #239
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Implicit in both the above responses is that there could not be other events that combined with economic circumstances might once again cause a divergence between earnings and prices.

When the diveregence is in the other direction do we attempt to explain it away?

I believe that sh*t happens is the best explanation, and the sh*t is almost always different from whatever it was the last time around.

Ambiguity and uncertainty is just hard to accept, but rejecting it does not make it go away.

Ha
I actually agree with you, that sh*t happens. Nearly in all cases, we can explain after the fact why something happened. And in many cases, we can even tell contemporaneously that something is wrong. However, there are many forces at play, and we never know beforehand what factors will dominate. That is usually what people disagree about.

And then, even as we agree that something is bad, such as the recent housing bubble, very few could predict how severe the outcome would turn out to be. We had housing bubbles in the past, but only a few knew the potential damaging effect of all those CDOs and CDS's. Maybe those of you in the financial world knew, but I certainly didn't.
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Old 05-20-2010, 05:37 PM   #240
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So, the market suffered from temporary insanity. Or perhaps not. What else was going then?
The markets suffer from temporary insanity 75% of the time! Interspersed with brief periods of sanity then insanity again in a totally new direction.

Audrey
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