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Old 03-01-2012, 01:20 PM   #21
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Originally Posted by Ed_The_Gypsy View Post
Just cojones, amigo.

We will see how big they are once you retire.
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Old 03-01-2012, 08:01 PM   #22
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Originally Posted by Midpack View Post
Is your primary goal avoiding failure, or building wealth and the chance of a larger residual $ end of plan?

The former does not require a large equity position (fig 2.3 attached), the latter does (fig 2.4 attached, and .2.2 indirectly). This shows that distinction, recently discussed in another thread here. Pensions, Retirement Planning, and Economics Blog: William Bengen's SAFEMAX.
While my primary goal is avoiding failure, a close second is having some upside potential (during the plan) to help out some family members or go on a exotic vacation or two. The link you provided is very helpful in this regard and suggests that I can achieve enough safety with some upside potential if I stay at 55/45 or thereabouts.

If I understand this correctly, if I'm "lucky" with my sequence of returns I'll have extra to spend along the way, but even if I'm unlucky I should still be safe unless 2012 turns out to be a worse year to retire than every year since 1926.
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Old 03-01-2012, 10:34 PM   #23
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I am way older than the OP and 100% in equities today. I wouldn't touch a bond right now. They can only go down from here.
Equities are the only thing that have any potential to keep me out of a paper box under the bridge. I was 100% in 1987 and almost 100% in 2008.
If he wants conservative, look for reliable dividend-paying equities.
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Just cojones, amigo.
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Originally Posted by 73ss454 View Post
We will see how big they are once you retire.
I'm with Ed, but a couple years' expenses in a five-year CD ladder can sidestep an awful lot of market volatility...
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Old 03-02-2012, 10:44 AM   #24
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If a market crash won't make or break your retirement *and* you have the stomach to ride out the bear markets, why do you need to significantly change what you are doing?

There is no one-size-fits-all AA for all people of any age. It depends on your goals, your risk tolerance and your *need* for your portfolio to provide you with income over your lifetime. Someone who will never need the money for retirement income and who is comfortable with market risk has no reason to go ultra-conservative.

It's like I say to people who have pensions with COLA kickers that exceed their annual spending -- you can be as risk-averse or as aggressive with your personal retirement savings as you are comfortable with, since a bad market or "quitting at the wrong time" won't sabotage your retirement plans.
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Old 03-02-2012, 10:48 AM   #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by biocruiser View Post
While my primary goal is avoiding failure, a close second is having some upside potential (during the plan) to help out some family members or go on a exotic vacation or two. The link you provided is very helpful in this regard and suggests that I can achieve enough safety with some upside potential if I stay at 55/45 or thereabouts.

If I understand this correctly, if I'm "lucky" with my sequence of returns I'll have extra to spend along the way, but even if I'm unlucky I should still be safe unless 2012 turns out to be a worse year to retire than every year since 1926.
I read it the same way you do. Once you have at least 40% equities, above that doesn't increase risk of failure much at all, and then only at about 80% equities. Higher equity positions will yield higher returns on average, but a much wilder ride. 55:45 looks like a good compromise to me [I'm targeting 50:50 10 these days].
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Old 03-02-2012, 12:34 PM   #26
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Well, assuming $ to last for you? No Younger Spouce? You got about 30 yrs to go
-Taking out 4% Yr?
-Many advise at least a 40/60-60/40
-Using the Lazymans Ports? Why? Compare the Coffeehouse to Just VWELX .
-Why not use your Experience just Using a Couple of Balanced funds and a Bond Fund instead now?
-It's just like being a Business Owner and having Mgrs. doing their jobs for you and you get the best out of their work ..
-Using those Bal Funds is Like Hiring 2 different FA's
-You run a 60/40 port, but use only VWELX/VWINX ( Admrial of course)
-VWELX for your Recovery and Bull Yrs and VWINX for your Bear Yrs..
-Result? You would have Not just Made More! But you would have Lost Less, alot less!
-And Oh! BTW? After you Retire from making that "Easy $" from your Job/Business? Your Gambling Days are over.. Since you won't have anymore of that Easy $ comming in to make up for big mistakes.
-Only exception is? If you have Extra $ you can go Gamble with and won't need to count on.. Like I did..
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Old 03-04-2012, 04:23 AM   #27
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I'm with Ed, but a couple years' expenses in a five-year CD ladder can sidestep an awful lot of market volatility...
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Old 03-04-2012, 01:23 PM   #28
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We will see how big they are once you retire.
I could turn into a bowl of jello at that time. I don't know how long I can keep up this guy stuff.

Then was then, now is now. I learn, I plan, but I could lose my nerve. I ain't a machine (an old broken-down engineer, but not a machine). I have good models, but you never know until you get there.

One of the things I remember vividly was when I was young, taking a bus from Seattle south to Portland. As we were leaving the terminal, there was a very old man walking on the sidewalk, crying as he walked, with his pants half down and soiled. Seattle has always been a place for outliers and derelicts. How am I different from him? Always been an outlier. Making an effort to avoid destitution.

You are welcome to watch. My journey is what it will be. I hope not to be the old guy on the street. I hope to provide for my spouse in the event that I precede her so that she has comfort and peace. At this time, I have about 1/10th of the assets of the OP. I have to keep my nerve. I have to consider things that my parents would never have imagined. My great-grand parents, maybe.
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