Help me design a portfolio that generates $50,000 a year

[jdw_fire]

Seriously?

Someone who posts with the primary purpose of the post being to get a rise out of someone in order to increase their sense of self worth, with very little interest in the actual subject matter at hand. Usually picks one topic and bangs away on it until everyones sick of hearing about it and just the newb's get worked up over it.

I'm not sure theres trolling action here, but then I dont care about SWR's. Seems like a lot of interesting dialog. Until it gets to the point where the accusations start, real or perceived, and someone believes that their idea(s) or points of view are the only ones that matter. Then its not productive.

Thanks again, I thought it had something to do with taking a quote out of context and thus changing the meaning.

 

[HFWR]

This SWR thread is the "anti-hosuc"...

The REAL SWR is 1.324095876... just don't ask for any math...

 

[obryanjf]

God forbid theres a discussion about SWR's on Fire and Money board of the ER forum.

HFWR, i thought you were going to say it was pi.. 3.14159.....
Then we could have a real argument about what the 400th digit was for the SWR.

job

 

[sgeeeee]

God forbid theres a discussion about SWR's on Fire and Money board of the ER forum.

HFWR, i thought you were going to say it was pi.. 3.14159.....
Then we could have a real argument about what the 400th digit was for the SWR.

job

Pi That's absurd. The SWR is (sqrt(7654.321))^(1/pi) . . . ignoring social security payments.

 

[rmark]

small total reits corp total bills Past u.s. averages (up to 200 yrs)
stock bond
12 arithmetic return (overstates stock, bond differ)
-1 near goemetric return (true geometric -2)
-1 survivor bias (records drop failed companies )
10 6 nominal return (tax deferred or paid from work)
-3 -3 inflation (varied considerably)
-2 -1 investing costs (commissions, fund fees, etc)
6 5 4 3 2 1 u.s. domestic saver net real return (u.s. only)
-1 -1 lower international (lower capital gains)
5 4 3 2 1 0 u.s. global saver net real return (u.s still ½)
-1 -1 lower international (more bad runs)
4 3 2 1 0 -1 u.s. international saver net real return (no u.s.)
-2 -1 average down (withdrawal return ratchet down)

Cooley, Hubbard, Walz “Retirement savings: choosing a withdrawal rate…”paper
Charnes, Robinson “Sustainable withdrawals” paper (includes synopsis of other articles)
Dimson, Marsh, Staunton “Irrational Optimism” paper
Jorion, Goetzmann “Global stock markets of the 20th century” paper
Dichev “What were investors actual historical returns” paper
Ervin “Shortfall risk, asset allocation, and over funding a retirement account” paper
Lewellen “Predicting stock returns with financial ratios” paper
Frazzini “Dumb money: mutual fund flows and the cross section of returns” paper
Bernstein “Four pillars of investing” book (efficientfrontier.com)
Bogle “Common sense on mutual funds” book (vanguard.com, related sites)
Hebeler “JK Lassers guide to your winning retirement” book (analyzenow.com)
Dimson, Goyal, Reid “103 year u.s. real estate returns” article
Jorion “Long term risks of global stock markets” Fin. Mgmt. winter 2003 article
Mandelbrot, Taleb “Focus on exceptions that prove the rule” Fin. Times Mar.2006 article

 

[rmark]

I'm more than happy to believe that 4.65%, but firecalc uses U.S. history only, while ignoring lower international returns. In essence the most optimistic data is the easiest to obtain. Further more past investing costs were much higher than todays index fund costs, so your net return would have been lower.

What we have is the old test where person #1 is given a few good broad decision rules and later is shown poorly performing complicated rules used by person #2. Inevitiably #1 tries to incorporate the more complicated rules into their decision process, to their detriment.

I simply expect to divide my SS, pension, 403b, and funds annually over my remaining life expectancy, relying on broad diversification to reduce annual withdrawal swings. I posted my cheat sheet above.

 

[rmark]

The "only 95% in down year" I view as a joke. The records just aren't that good.

 

[rmark]

Having whined enough, I'm putting "Victory at Sea", disc 2 , into the player. Its time to invade Sicily.

 

[HFWR]

Patton...