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Re: Help me to love stocks!
Old 03-10-2006, 05:58 PM   #41
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Re: Help me to love stocks!

Quote:
Originally Posted by ebisky
Check out the 1 year returns of the Vanguard energy and real estate ETFs.
Congrats on picking last year's winners. *Let me know which sectors will outperform from this point going forward and we'll check back on your results in 365 days.

Quote:
I've been investing for a little over a year


Not much of a track record. *And I can assure you that there are no secret investing techniques to be found in books. *If it worked, it wouldn't be published. *And if it were published, it wouldn't work any more.

Some friendly advice, beware of your confidence that you have a system that will beat the market. *Everyone is a genius in a bull market (and yes we are still in a bull market for just about everything but a few large caps). *An old roommate once thought he had a system, too. *"Anyone can beat the market" I remember him telling me. *Shortly after the first serious market downdraft we started getting calls from the electric company that our payments were past due. *Turns out his great system busted him and he was taking my share of the communal expenses to buy down some margin debt. *

Good luck with the system.

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Re: Help me to love stocks!
Old 03-10-2006, 06:02 PM   #42
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Re: Help me to love stocks!

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Originally Posted by ebisky
TA is dependable because almost everyone else uses it, especially the big investment firms.
I work on the trading floor of one of the biggest financial institutions on the planet and I can assure you this is not true.
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Re: Help me to love stocks!
Old 03-10-2006, 06:12 PM   #43
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Re: Help me to love stocks!

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Originally Posted by 3 Yrs to Go
I work on the trading floor of one of the biggest financial institutions on the planet and I can assure you this is not true.
What is it that you do for the financial institution? Do you make investment decisions for the company? The 200 day moving average is a huge market resistance and support line. Major mutual funds and money managers use it almost religiously.

Also, I don't have a "system" and if I used that term in my posts I regret saying it. I am just suggesting to invest in strong industries. Plain and simple. This isn't a complex idea or involves a secret technique. That is why it is so simple and easy to do.
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Re: Help me to love stocks!
Old 03-10-2006, 06:45 PM   #44
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Re: Help me to love stocks!

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Originally Posted by ebisky
Do you make investment decisions for the company? The 200 day moving average is a huge market resistance and support line. Major mutual funds and money managers use it almost religiously.
Yes.

I also talk to all of the "major mutual fund" analysts, PMs and traders, and no, they do not use technical analysis either.

There are small pockets of money that gets invested using technical analysis but it is a backwater in stocks and bonds. I think areas like commodities rely on it to some extent.

Consider that if it were that simple to spot trends using moving averages, volume data, etc. one could simply write a program to execute orders based on the TA buy / sell signals. It's been tried. It doesn't work.
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Re: Help me to love stocks!
Old 03-10-2006, 07:28 PM   #45
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Re: Help me to love stocks!

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Originally Posted by 3 Yrs to Go
Yes.

I also talk to all of the "major mutual fund" analysts, PMs and traders, and no, they do not use technical analysis either.

There are small pockets of money that gets invested using technical analysis but it is a backwater in stocks and bonds. I think areas like commodities rely on it to some extent.

Consider that if it were that simple to spot trends using moving averages, volume data, etc. one could simply write a program to execute orders based on the TA buy / sell signals. It's been tried. It doesn't work.
Find me one stock out of the top 20 in the NYSE US 100 that does not react to the 200 day MA. You cant.

My point exactly.

Just one BIG example(GE has the biggest stake in the NYSE US 100 with 5.76%):

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GE&...d=p57029046932

The stock follows the 200 MA almost exactly. Each time the price hit the 200 MA, it acted as support and sent it back up. As soon as the stock started trading under the 200MA, it has gone down and is in a downtrend. The 200 MA now acts as resistance. The stock will hit around $33.95 and move back down. If it manages to break 33.95, it will be in another uptrend.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GE&...d=p57029046932

there's the 6 month chart of GE...notice the 200 MA acts as major resistance and support. Look at the 21st of Nov. Notice once it crossed the 200 MA there was a huge price increase...notice when it goes below the 200 MA on the 22nd there is a huge price decrease.

Your friends live in a fantasy world. Tell me who they work for, so I can let my friends know who NOT to invest with.

-E
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Re: Help me to love stocks!
Old 03-10-2006, 07:42 PM   #46
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Re: Help me to love stocks!

Quote:
Originally Posted by ebisky
Find me one stock out of the top 20 in the NYSE US 100 that does not react to the 200 day MA. You cant.
Congratulations, you just discovered the perpetual motion money machine.

Quote:
The stock follows the 200 MA almost exactly. Each time the price hit the 200 MA, it acted as support and sent it back up. As soon as the stock started trading under the 200MA, it has gone down and is in a downtrend. The 200 MA now acts as resistance. The stock will hit around $33.95 and move back down. If it manages to break 33.95, it will be in another uptrend.
So essentially the stock keeps going up until it doesn't and then when it doesn't it will go down until it doesn't. That's brilliant!!


Quote:
Your friends live in a fantasy world. Tell me who they work for, so I can let my friends know who NOT to invest with.

When you actually join the real world and have some real experience come and talk to me.
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Re: Help me to love stocks!
Old 03-10-2006, 07:53 PM   #47
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Re: Help me to love stocks!

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Originally Posted by 3 Yrs to Go
Congratulations, you just discovered the perpetual motion money machine.

So essentially the stock keeps going up until it doesn't and then when it doesn't it will go down until it doesn't. That's brilliant!!



When you actually join the real world and have some real experience come and talk to me.
Now you are just talking nonsense. The graphs don't lie. Show me where I'm wrong. Find a stock from the top 20 NYSE US 100 that does not react to the 200 day MA.

Notice the huge spike in volume on those dates that crossed the 200 day MA..I can show you graphs all day of the 200 day MA and its reaction to GE. I bet the majority of those trades were block trades.

Here is a graph of GE when it crossed the 200 day MA from a long uptrend in June '05:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GE&...d=p96923601880

Notice again the obvious support/resistance of the 200 day MA..shall I continue? I can do this all day.

Close up of GE during June '04 - Dec '04..the price bounces almost directly off the 200 day MA each time:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GE&...d=p96923601880

I'm up over 250% since I started trading last year..how about your friends?

Here is XOM(#2 on the NYSE US 100 list)

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XOM...d=p96923601880

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XOM...d=p96923601880

^^ Close up of the dip in Nov 03.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XOM...d=p96923601880

^^ Last recent 6 months of XOM..again..200 MA provides support/resistance. Notice today it actually opened right at the 200MA and ended above it..not breaking the 200 MA. A closeup: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XOM...d=p96923601880

-E
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Re: Help me to love stocks!
Old 03-10-2006, 08:50 PM   #48
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Re: Help me to love stocks!

Quote:
Originally Posted by 3 Yrs to Go
Yes.

I also talk to all of the "major mutual fund" analysts, PMs and traders, and no, they do not use technical analysis either.*

There are small pockets of money that gets invested using technical analysis but it is a backwater in stocks and bonds.* I think areas like commodities rely on it to some extent.

Consider that if it were that simple to spot trends using moving averages, volume data, etc. one could simply write a program to execute orders based on the TA buy / sell signals.* It's been tried.* It doesn't work.
Allow me to corroborate what Yrs is saying. I work for a hedge fund with people who are far more experienced than I am. Number of times I have heard one iota of technical "analysis" babble spouted: zero.

ebisky, we are trying very hard to be gentle. You clearly believe in the system you follow. However, real world experience of many of us does not bear out what you are talking about. Do yourself a favor and don't get too bound up in momentum trades. It is very easy to get burned.
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Re: Help me to love stocks!
Old 03-10-2006, 08:56 PM   #49
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Re: Help me to love stocks!

I was a fricking stock trading genius from 1995-1999.

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Re: Help me to love stocks!
Old 03-10-2006, 09:08 PM   #50
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Re: Help me to love stocks!

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Originally Posted by ebisky
Now you are just talking nonsense. The graphs don't lie. Show me where I'm wrong.
I really have no desire to argue with you. But don't you think that if this really worked it would be automated and exploited?

All your charts show is that a moving average is the average of historic prices. It tracks the data series by definition. It has no predictive power.

Good luck with it.
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Re: Help me to love stocks!
Old 03-10-2006, 09:51 PM   #51
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Re: Help me to love stocks!

Quote:
Originally Posted by brewer12345
Allow me to corroborate what Yrs is saying. I work for a hedge fund with people who are far more experienced than I am. Number of times I have heard one iota of technical "analysis" babble spouted: zero.

ebisky, we are trying very hard to be gentle. You clearly believe in the system you follow. However, real world experience of many of us does not bear out what you are talking about. Do yourself a favor and don't get too bound up in momentum trades. It is very easy to get burned.
Ask them Monday and see what they say. Report back to us. Ask them what criteria they use to trade. Ask them if they take TA into consideration with other analysis they do.

Also, TA can't be automated for the reason that it only gives clues as to what will happen. But it is very accurate. It needs someone to decipher WHY the stock is moving in a certain direction. You just can't trade off TA alone. Previous trends help figure out the movement with associated with the TA. Some stocks like to bounce off certain indicators while others bounce off a different one. Using past trends helps to decipher what price levels people buy and sell the stock at. I use TA to find stocks I like, I then do fundamental analysis on the stocks I chose to invest in. I'd say 70% TA 30% FA

-E
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Re: Help me to love stocks!
Old 03-10-2006, 10:11 PM   #52
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Re: Help me to love stocks!

Go to the local library, and check out and read "The four pillars of investing" By William Bernstein.

Check back in when you've had a look and let us know what you think.
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Re: Help me to love stocks!
Old 03-10-2006, 10:23 PM   #53
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Re: Help me to love stocks!

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Originally Posted by Cute 'n Fuzzy Bunny
Go to the local library, and check out and read "The four pillars of investing" By William Bernstein.

Check back in when you've had a look and let us know what you think.
I'll check it out. Has good reviews on the Zon.

-E
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Re: Help me to love stocks!
Old 03-10-2006, 10:48 PM   #54
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Re: Help me to love stocks!

ebisky, I've been resiting this response but your continued defense of your "investment strategy", your youth and investment naivete finally got the best of me.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ebisky
I've been investing for a little over a year, but don't let my inexperience fool you into thinking I don't know the markets.
I don't think your inexperience has fooled us, but it has obviously fooled you.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ebisky
I also trade almost every day and surround myself with professionals.
Hmmmm. Day trader?

Quote:
Originally Posted by ebisky
The strategy I am suggesting here is not one I use.
If you don't have the courage of your own convictions, why should anyone follow your advice?

Quote:
Originally Posted by ebisky
I am a swing trader, so I don't hold investments for longer than a few days (if that)...
Sounds more like gambling than investing.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ebisky
... however, I know enough about how the market works to know that investing in industries as a safe investment is a good idea. I've looked at the charts and studied how the ETFs move.
Yet you don't follow the strategy you are advising others to use?

Quote:
Originally Posted by ebisky
My main point is that if you are investing in index funds, to invest in industries and not the overall market.
That would be chasing hot sectors investing in sector funds, right?

Quote:
Originally Posted by ebisky
When I have a full time position, I will start actually "investing" my money and it will go into index funds.
So you haven't actually been investing for a little over a year like you said earlier?

Quote:
Originally Posted by ebisky
Any profits I make off my active investments I will move over into index funds.
If you have this great system for investing in individual stocks, why on earth would you want to put the money into index funds?

Quote:
Originally Posted by ebisky
Knowing which industries are doing well is not very difficult and would not take a lot of time or research to figure out.
It's easy to figure out what industires are doing well today. But what will do well tomorrow? And the day after that? And the day after that? Not so easy.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ebisky
I'm just trying to help out.
Maybe so, but good intentioned bad advice is still bad advice. Since you are posting investment advice on this forum I feel obligated to inform those reading it you have little or no actual investment experience.

Do yourself a very big favor, take CFB's advice and read "four pillars". Forget about TA (but not T&A ) Listen to brewer and 3yrs and the others on this forum who have a lot of knowledge and real world investment experience.

Listen, grasshopper. And you will save yourself a chunk of change.
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Re: Help me to love stocks!
Old 03-10-2006, 10:58 PM   #55
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Re: Help me to love stocks!

ebisky, I've been resiting this response but your continued defense of your "investment strategy", your youth and investment naivete finally got the best of me.

You can think of my experience in years trading or in # of trades. I've made over 1000 buy/sell trades in the last year. Probably more than a lot of people have over the last 5 - 30 years.


I don't think your inexperience has fooled us, but it has obviously fooled you.

No, I'm up over 250% within 1 year.


Hmmmm. Day trader?

No, I'm a swing trader. Day traders trade multiple times every day and are classified as such under Reg T by the SEC. I'm a momentum trader. I trade on momentum and get out. I only play the upswings.

If you don't have the courage of your own convictions, why should anyone follow your advice?

I don't invest in index funds due to the reasons I have already posted. That, right now, "investing" for the long term is not something I'm very interested in due to not having a full-time job and a great income. I don't classify my swing trading as investing. This is my last semester of college and I'll have a full-time job starting in the Summer.

Sounds more like gambling than investing.

I don't invest blindly. I have a high success rate. This is not gambling.


Yet you don't follow the strategy you are advising others to use?

Again...Read a few answers up.


That would be chasing hot sectors investing in sector funds, right?

Ummmm?


So you haven't actually been investing for a little over a year like you said earlier?

Again, I don't really consider swing trading as investing. I've been TRADING for over a year.

If you have this great system for investing in individual stocks, why on earth would you want to put the money into index funds?

Because eventhough the strategies I use to invest have a high rate of success, there could be times when things just are not going my way. I want to move my $$ over into safer investments such as index funds.


It's easy to figure out what industires are doing well today. But what will do well tomorrow? And the day after that? And the day after that? Not so easy.

Actually, there are industries that have long term trends. Natural Res for example like oil and gas have have been in an uptrend for a while. It isn't like tomorrow things are going to go down hill. People need oil & gas. Also, certain industries do better depending on where we are at the overall market. Bear/Bull etc...

Maybe so, but good intentioned bad advice is still bad advice. Since you are posting investment advice on this forum I feel obligated to inform those reading it you have little or no actual investment
experience.

It is good advice. Again, there needs to be a seperation from what I do, which is swing trading, versus what I'm suggesting others to do which is simply to invest in strong industries using ETFs. No TA needed, only a sense of what is going on in the world.

Do yourself a very big favor, take CFB's advice and read "four pillars". Forget about TA (but not T&A ) Listen to brewer and 3yrs and the others on this forum who have a lot of knowledge and real world investment experience.

I will not forget about TA and will still act on the T&A. I will check into reading the book.


Listen, grasshopper. And you will save yourself a chunk of change.

I appreciate your concern and I understand you are trying to suade me away from the dark side of my actions, yet the strategy I use to trade works for me.

Also, just a side note. I have already mentioned that about 70% of my research into stocks is TA and 30% is in FA. People should never invest blindly into a stock based on a sole indicator. All indicators have to come together to make for a strong trade.

-E




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Re: Help me to love stocks!
Old 03-11-2006, 01:02 AM   #56
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Re: Help me to love stocks!

and after you've read 4 Pillars, read

"Fooled by Randomness: The hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets" by Nassim Nicholas Taleb.

It almost has your name on it. Actually, it's a great read--I'd recommend it to anyone.
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Re: Help me to love stocks!
Old 03-11-2006, 04:20 AM   #57
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Re: Help me to love stocks!

25 years as an investor has taught me many things.first off i learned that anything that uses historical data is like driving and looking in your rear view mirror.if theres one thing the markets show us, it never reacts the same to the same information.
* trying to time things at best to me is not investing but speculating.anytime we think our system is smarter than the markets themselves thats speculating not investing.be it charts,the moon,skirt hems or the ole crystal ball ,thats speculating..even inside information is speculating...just look at immclone ...............investing means im going along for the ride and will rise and fall with the markets themselves.........when i try to do better i have to hope my system outsmarts the greatest minds and software the world has consistantly
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Re: Help me to love stocks!
Old 03-11-2006, 04:50 AM   #58
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Re: Help me to love stocks!

one other thing i want to add.i think its fabian who uses the moving market average in his newlsletter...well for years he was pushing how his moving average system may miss the 10% at the top and the 10% at the bottom and preseve the 80% in the middle..well that system worked great for years.until it didnt...about 5 or six years ago a quick downturn and rebound left his advise in the dust..subscribers failed to get iback in time and missed the greatest part of the run ups..moving averages are to slow to react to keep up with todays volitale change on a dime markets...needless to say i know no one myself who still gets this news letter...i think it was doug fabian too who also proclaimed he rifined his moving average system over and it was near perfect.he went public showing how he is putting 500,000 or so of his own money in to prove how good it is AND WILL DOUBLE IT IN A YEAR ..well 1 yr later his moving average system brought him a 33% loss vs a 18% gain for the wilshire





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Re: Help me to love stocks!
Old 03-11-2006, 04:51 AM   #59
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Re: Help me to love stocks!

TA and trading systems can be 100% automated (many good books on the subject including one from Jack Schwager) with variable success.

Have a look @ my 2 blogs:
http://tradingautomation.blogspot.com/
http://cosmosportfolios.blogspot.com/
There's a thread on this FIRE board relating to a 10MUSD reference portfolio.

There are so many ways of making money. Fundamental analysis is one, TA is another and trading automation (many strategies) is a subset. So many ways to trade, so many things to trade !

People should be more open minded stop thinking that what they think they know is gold and that nothing else exists.

For example, there are so many hedge funds types (including well know catastrophes for well know paradigms and brillant brains, e.g. mean reversion) that no one should say, well "I know hedge fund people, this does work and this is rubbish !"

Come on. Let's all stay humble.
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Re: Help me to love stocks!
Old 03-11-2006, 08:28 AM   #60
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Re: Help me to love stocks!

Humble sucks! - I am a legend in my own mind and an active investor(since 1966)* - er ah of sort of.

Here's how I keep the male hormones under 'some control' - along with old age/march of time.

I benchmarked my active stock/mutual fund picks with DCA over the years - the last twenty being balanced index. At ER twelve years ago(1993) not counting the duplex - ho hum DCA, balanced index was 80-90% of ER stash. The stocks, RE, timberland, collectible gold and silver coins, active mutual funds were fun, biologically driven and nobody or a book could tell me/prevent me from trying to 'beat the market' once in a while.

As I post - 15% of ER is DRIP/VG broker stocks - albiet pretty much dividend oriented nowadays. For me - it's incurable, male(usually) and biological.

Fisher, Ben Graham and the ancient G. M. Loeb are some authors one 'might' want to read.

Ala Monte Python's quest for the 'Holy Grail' - it only takes one - or was that Ben Graham

Books didn't 'cure' me - the school of hard knocks over twenty years helped bring it under control. But for me - it's incurable.

At least the Norwegian widow gets her dividends.

heh heh heh heh
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