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Re: Help me to love stocks!
Old 03-11-2006, 08:40 AM   #61
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Re: Help me to love stocks!

Quote:
Originally Posted by poyet
TA and trading systems can be 100% automated (many good books on the subject including one from Jack Schwager) with variable success.

Have a look @ my 2 blogs:
http://tradingautomation.blogspot.com/
http://cosmosportfolios.blogspot.com/
There's a thread on this FIRE board relating to a 10MUSD reference portfolio.

There are so many ways of making money. Fundamental analysis is one, TA is another and trading automation (many strategies) is a subset. So many ways to trade, so many things to trade !

People should be more open minded stop thinking that what they think they know is gold and that nothing else exists.

Come on. Let's all stay humble.
And for a small fee, the poster will happily take manage your money and let you experience his system first hand:

"Deployment of the method and technology is very flexible and can be arranged at standard industry rates and conditions, i.e. 2% fees for funds under management, and 20% incentive fees on returns exceeding previous high watermarks. Authors and technology owners are open to any deals with accredited investors in US terms (net worth > 1M$), institutions and broker dealers."

And the latest update on system performance:

Quote:
Originally Posted by poyet
Well, the system has been whipsawed and I explain on the blog what happened.
Better days ahead !
Cheers.
Stay humble...
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Re: Help me to love stocks!
Old 03-11-2006, 01:43 PM   #62
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Re: Help me to love stocks!

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Originally Posted by ebisky

No, I'm up over 250% within 1 year.


"Those whom the gods would destroy, they first make proud"
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Re: Help me to love stocks!
Old 03-11-2006, 02:07 PM   #63
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Re: Help me to love stocks!

I was up over 300% in 1999.

I'm still using up the capital losses from 2000, although they sure come in handy...
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Re: Help me to love stocks!
Old 03-11-2006, 02:21 PM   #64
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Re: Help me to love stocks!

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Originally Posted by Cute 'n Fuzzy Bunny
I was up over 300% in 1999.

I'm still using up the capital losses from 2000, although they sure come in handy...

Iím sure you just miscalculated the confluence of Fibonacci numbers at a critical support level.* *:
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Re: Help me to love stocks!
Old 03-11-2006, 02:29 PM   #65
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Re: Help me to love stocks!

I used a far more complex system than that. I thought nasdaq 4000 and PE's in the 300's were nuts. Nasdaq 5000 was even nuttier, so I sold. Ding ding ding...total of 300% gain for that 1 year period. When the nasdaq hit 3000, it looked quite bargainlike. At 2000, a relative steal. At 1200, there didnt appear to be a floor in sight. At 2000 again, it was time to sell and notice that my ass had just been handed to me.
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Re: Help me to love stocks!
Old 03-11-2006, 02:47 PM   #66
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Re: Help me to love stocks!

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Originally Posted by 3 Yrs to Go

"Those whom the gods would destroy, they first make proud"
Circa 1968 - a ten bagger got me a new rag top Datsun 2000 roadster and a year of Penthouse living.

Since then - smearing the results - about 1% under balanced index benchmark - heh heh heh - duh! - about the cost of active management in those days - Bogle must have saw me coming!

Hope springs eternal - remember - it only takes one (Ben Graham ) or a few (Buffett).

The beat goes on.
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Re: Help me to love stocks!
Old 03-11-2006, 03:06 PM   #67
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Re: Help me to love stocks!

Quote:
Originally Posted by ebisky
Ask them Monday and see what they say. Report back to us. Ask them what criteria they use to trade. Ask them if they take TA into consideration with other analysis they do.

-E
I don't need to ask since I am part of the investment committee. TA never comes up.
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Re: Help me to love stocks!
Old 03-12-2006, 02:03 AM   #68
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Re: Help me to love stocks!

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Originally Posted by REWahoo!
And for a small fee, the poster will happily take manage your money and let you experience his system first hand:

And the latest update on system performance:

Stay humble...
1) doubt many people here will invest more than 1M$ in the system, so there is no offer no trolling, just trying to open people's minds that trading automation is an interesting field ;

2) whatever your sarcasms on the system's performance are, it is till 4 times better than the index (NDX) over the same period with the same P2T. As the system is a trend following system and as we've had so little trend this year, it's not that bad indeed. More on past performances over longer periods on the blog. Funny that people are always interested ex-post (when everybody knows it works) and never ex-ante when a small group could take advantage of innovation ;

3) Nobody's compelled to use TA. Some feel they are better off without, fine with them. But there's no need to disconsider what you do not use or do not understand. Nevertheless, I recommend the second part of that book for those interested in designing automated systems: Schwager, Jack D. 1999. "Getting Started In Technical Analysis", John Wiley & sons, 331p.

I'm ER and I take all that (very) easy.

Good luck to all, including those not using TA !
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Re: Help me to love stocks!
Old 03-12-2006, 07:30 AM   #69
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Re: Help me to love stocks!

"...2% fees for funds under management, and 20% incentive fees on returns exceeding previous high watermarks."

Note that the "standard industry rates and conditions" include a 20% bonus (fee) provision for exceeding "previous high watermarks". Conspicuously absent is any reciprocal reduction in fees for underperforming.

Just an observation...

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Re: Help me to love stocks!
Old 03-12-2006, 08:32 AM   #70
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Re: Help me to love stocks!

You're perfectly right. But this industry apparently finds more than enough customers with those asymetrical conditions ! even though it's been more difficult to raise money these last 18 months or so...

Furthermore we should also define the notion of underperformance which supposes to compare to "something" like an index. And you know the problem, most hedge funds claim to have returns which are not correlated to the market (e.g. making money while the markets dive could even show a negative correlation...) and aim to have positive returns in all (most ?) conditions. It also means that customers could even also be fine making less money than the market during bull runs (underperforming) but still making some while the markets plunge, etc... Therefore, for some strategies, they would trade absolute performance for lower volatility which can make sense for big lumps of money, etc.

My only knowledge / experience is with automated trading using Long / Short strategies as described in the blog. Having spent years developing AI systems for various applications (including critical military and submarines tactical apps that's for Nords), my objective (more than making more money) is to demonstrate the feasability of such trading systems, even though I'm quite sure some large organisations already deploy such kind of systems and keep it confidential given contacts / exchanges I had.

The system has had a great year on the european markets as they were trendy and we also made 4 times the index, but 4 times 20% looks much better. It's also true to say that for global customers, they wish to have funds deployed worldwide with various strategies on all markets, all integrated in a global risk management which is beyond my current reach...

But there are many other strategies. A friend of mine is launching a hedge with the 2-20% conditions mentioned (as unfair) and raised 500mUSD with a mix of "equity long / short", "equity derivatives", "debt / equity relative value" with an opportunistic investment selection, risk / return driven.

And so goes this industry.
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Re: Help me to love stocks!
Old 03-12-2006, 09:49 AM   #71
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Re: Help me to love stocks!

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Originally Posted by poyet
Having spent years developing AI systems for various applications (including critical military and submarines tactical apps* that's for Nords)
Don't get me started.

I worked at the Naval Research Lab on a corrosion project and I spent three years at Monterey with autonomous underwater vehicle thesis research.* I know how the Navy's side of R&D works. I've even programmed a LISP machine to talk to a Unix box and cough up a 3D graphical simulation. The military's R&D system could work a lot better but at least they don't have to make a profit out of it.

I've also had to live with the "user" side of the system.* Every allied & foreign military computer system designed to find U.S. submarines has had its assets kicked by a LOS ANGELES class sub (or better).* The Australians have an extremely effective active-sonar intercept system, and we quickly learned not to use active sonar around their submarines.* Otherwise the world's ASW game has turned into two blindfolded guys knife-fighting in a phone booth.* The blindfold on the U.S. guy lets in a little more light occasionally but that's about as good as it gets.

I've had to live with two decades of computer-aided tactical "enhancements" coming down the hatch (assuming that the developer realized it'd have to fit through the hatch), and with one exception everything that's come out of the research lab has kicked OUR assets.* If it's not just plain buggy software, it's wimpy hardware that can't handle a little 5g shock or being dropped in a bilge full of hydraulic fluid or sprayed with salt water.* The only thing worse than dealing with the military's BQQ-5 sonar system was the decision to replace it with commercial computers, but at least they didn't require water cooling or catch fire.

The exception to this ugly rule has been PC-IMAT, a sonar search-planning tool that runs on a, uhm, PC, and that uses 3D graphics to aid in optimizing sonar settings.* Those same 3D animations revolutionized sonar technician training and greatly improved the human-factor engineering side of the equation.* 20 years of experience, one system that produced the "Cool!" response.* There's gotta be a better way.

I know of at least one serious submerged collision that was directly related to a "magic" AI black box.* I hope that wasn't yours!* It'll make TH very happy to know that was the one time the Navy experimented with Macs... afterward everything reverted to MILSPEC, IBM, HP, or Sun.
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Re: Help me to love stocks!
Old 03-12-2006, 09:53 AM   #72
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Re: Help me to love stocks!

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Originally Posted by Nords
It'll make TH very happy to know that was the one time the Navy experimented with Macs... afterward everything reverted to MILSPEC, IBM, HP, or Sun.
It never makes me happy to see that substandard computing products have caused harm.

I can only continue to warn people in hopes they will see the light and make the right decisions.

Spikes, spontaneous fires, frickin laser beams, and now submarines crashing randomly into stuff.

Oh, the humanity...
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Re: Help me to love stocks!
Old 03-12-2006, 10:05 AM   #73
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Re: Help me to love stocks!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cute 'n Fuzzy Bunny
and now submarines crashing randomly into stuff.
Oh, there was nothing random about it. Just selective interpretation of what, in hindsight, proved to be the wrong black-box data massagers.

No deaths, many minor injuries, no life-threatening damage, major body & fender work on both sides. Pretty much typical stuff for the late Cold War, straight out of Blind Man's Bluff.

AFAIK I've never had to take a fire extinguisher to an Intel product. But I've had to restrain many shipmates who wished they could do so...
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Re: Help me to love stocks!
Old 03-12-2006, 10:14 AM   #74
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Re: Help me to love stocks!

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Oh, there was nothing random about it
So what you're saying is that Apple products, at least those based on motorola architectures, intentionally crash our submarines into stuff? Very interesting. Excuse me a minute while I send a few emails...
Quote:
AFAIK I've never had to take a fire extinguisher to an Intel product. But I've had to restrain many shipmates who wished they could do so...
They're some HOT products, arent they?
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Re: Help me to love stocks!
Old 03-12-2006, 10:20 AM   #75
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Re: Help me to love stocks!

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Originally Posted by Cute 'n Fuzzy Bunny
So what you're saying is that Apple products, at least those based on motorola architectures, intentionally crash our submarines into stuff?
Yup. Or at least mislead users into believing that a collision risk does not exist, despite other evidence to the contrary.

Can I get paid to say that in a commercial "endorsement"?
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Re: Help me to love stocks!
Old 03-12-2006, 10:22 AM   #76
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Re: Help me to love stocks!

Uh...I think we're going to use a stunt double. But someone is going to say it...

I almost want to go back to work for a couple of weeks to put together the transition plan to migrate people to the new max hardware platform.
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Re: Help me to love stocks!
Old 03-12-2006, 12:42 PM   #77
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Re: Help me to love stocks!

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Originally Posted by Nords
Don't get me started.

I know of at least one serious submerged collision that was directly related to a "magic" AI black box. I hope that wasn't yours! It'll make TH very happy to know that was the one time the Navy experimented with Macs... afterward everything reverted to MILSPEC, IBM, HP, or Sun.
Interesting contribution Nords. No it was not my AI magic box, not that it did work but because it never went into the hatch for many reasons, one being that I was upstream designing "demonstrators". After having spent days and nights for 3 years programming with my team Symbolics, TI explorers and many LISP systems (of our design i.e. Le_Lisp and not the Common, Scheme or others...) mixed with op real-time code, FORTRAN and others (target motion analysis stuff, etc.), that we had sometimes re-written, and sweating bullets to make all that work we came to two interesting situations:
1) we had identified critical bugs into the functioning of the operational systems (which we used as a starting point) but the navy had no means (or budget or will) to correct the running weapon systems on time and to budget, so software and report went to a reinforced cupboard so that no one would know of the disaster(s) potentially looming ahead. Hopefully we might not necessarily have to use these WS in those unfavorable set of conditions that we had proven to exist...
2) Sub captains working with the system to decide what would be useful to make use of into operational conditions, not really coming to terms with what the AI magic black box was doing (perhaps hopefully for them :-) with all these Mike, Akula, LA, etc. kept asking to remove code, and remove code etc... to make things simpler, to the point where I asked myself why I had spent so much time designing a nice and working system to destroy it slowly (torture) under request.

Therefore I left and moved to something else !
End of this great (and extremely frustrating) period for me.

As an aside comment the board is lucky to get rid of me for sometime as I'll return skiing tomorrow !
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Re: Help me to love stocks!
Old 03-12-2006, 04:56 PM   #78
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Re: Help me to love stocks!

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Originally Posted by poyet
1) we had identified critical bugs into the functioning of the operational systems (which we used as a starting point) but the navy had no means (or budget or will) to correct the running weapon systems on time and to budget, so software and report went to a reinforced cupboard so that no one would know of the disaster(s) potentially looming ahead. Hopefully we might not necessarily have to use these WS in those unfavorable set of conditions that we had proven to exist...
2) Sub captains working with the system to decide what would be useful to make use of into operational conditions, not really coming to terms with what the AI magic black box was doing (perhaps hopefully for them :-) with all these Mike, Akula, LA, etc. kept asking to remove code, and remove code etc... to make things simpler, to the point where I asked myself why I had spent so much time designing a nice and working system to destroy it slowly (torture) under request.
Gosh, I can't believe I'm reading such things about the geniuses who backed Ada as the global gold standard of programming languages. In the Navy, your steps (1) & (2) are called "operational test & evaluation". Sometimes they're also called "Just in time for the deployment, aren't you the lucky guys, be sure to tell us how much you liked it in your mission report!"

We had other, more pithy names for it. Unfortunately most of them were edited out of the mission report.

You should hear what the professionals at other programming labs called the Navy's contact-management database software used by all the afloat/aviation communities. (You know it as JOTS, NTCS-A, JMCIS, GCCS-M, or whatever we're calling it in the 21st century to hide the skeletons.) I used to teach the courses that trained west-coast sailors/officers how to use their shiny brand-new systems. I was actually paid for a day of travel from San Diego up to San Luis Obispo to look a USMC flag officer and his incredulous programming staff in the eyes and say "Yes, sir, that's the way it works. As a matter of fact I do have a degree in computer science. Yes, it is a kludge. Yes, it is unreliable. Yes, it frequently locks up, falls apart, and won't reload. No sir, it doesn't like mud or sand-- it doesn't even like warm air. Yes, it's the best we have!" I went so far as to recommend that the Marines adopt a program that the Air Force was using, and then they knew that we were really screwed.

And I'm sure Bill Gates runs Microsoft better than MILSPEC, right?
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Re: Help me to love stocks!
Old 03-12-2006, 06:35 PM   #79
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Re: Help me to love stocks!

You're supposed to love stocks, just not LOVE stocks... :P

(Obscure and twisted reference from "The Truth About Cats and Dogs")
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Re: Help me to love stocks!
Old 03-13-2006, 02:32 AM   #80
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Re: Help me to love stocks!

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Originally Posted by Nords
"Yes, sir, that's the way it works. As a matter of fact I do have a degree in computer science. Yes, it is a kludge. Yes, it is unreliable. Yes, it frequently locks up, falls apart, and won't reload. No sir, it doesn't like mud or sand-- it doesn't even like warm air. Yes, it's the best we have!" I went so far as to recommend that the Marines adopt a program that the Air Force was using, and then they knew that we were really screwed.

And I'm sure Bill Gates runs Microsoft better than MILSPEC, right?
Well, seems we had the same kind of problems trying to make a match between what computers could offer and what users expected or thought they could expect (not more in fact, but something else often, not necessarily grabbing power / weaknesses of the tool).

But, I must confess Nords, this period ended 16 years ago for me, so I tend to keep the good memories of the nice "simulators" we built on these "primitive" computer systems as compared to what is available today.

And I have thousands times more power on my PC today to run unbelievable applications like the trading automation system which took me three years to make working. But I'm still amazed, as when I was a young computer scientist, to look at the machine "doing it alone", whatever "the doing" is given the AI app you deploy.

Cheers.
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